Winning the NFBC in the Mid-Game

For my money, the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) is the best fantasy baseball contest and allows players to enter at a number of different price points to fit anyone's comfort level. The Main Event is the crown jewel and takes place in late March both online and in person. I highly recommend making the trek to one of the live events and I promise once you do, it will be in pen on your calendar from that point forward. While this article does focus on the NFBC contests, hopefully it will provide value for anyone in any highly competitive league.

During draft prep, I notice a lot of attention is placed on both the early rounds as well as finding late gems in the endgame, but I have long maintained that leagues are won in between those two ranges, which I not-so-creatively call the mid-game. With all the content and freely available Average Draft Position (ADP) lists out there in the current era of fantasy baseball, I feel anyone can draft pretty well in the Top 100. Of course, there are early landmines to avoid and we all have our targets and fades early in drafts, but Major League Baseball is chock full of great players that everyone knows really well. When I talk about the mid-game, I consider it after pick 100 and up until about pick 225, so rounds eight to 15 in a 15-team league or rounds 10 to 18 in a 12-teamer.

Whenever I look back on my results each year and figure out what went right or wrong, it very often comes down to how I did in these rounds as this is usually where the key breakouts live and also where a lot of players who were hyped, but bust, often get picked. As you prep for your drafts and when at the draft table, make sure to focus on the mid-game and hopefully these tips help you navigate your way.

DO: ALWAYS SEEK BALANCE

This is one point that is most applicable to the NFBC as there is no trading and with an overall component to the competition, punting a category is much less appealing than in a standalone league. While drafting in the early rounds, while still grabbing a variety of stats, we often take the best player available or end up with an early abundance of a category based on how a draft breaks down. Everyone is going to be weak somewhere based on early picks and it is crucial to identify before your draft who you like in the mid-range for each category so you can move and adapt based on what you may be lacking after the top 100.

One key item is not to forget about runs, which many people often do, when focusing on stats mid-draft. Runs can be tough to catch up in during the mid-game as most of the top players in runs are the true studs. Looking at the list of players over 100 runs last year, it reads as a who's who of the top 50 ADP with a few surprises tucked in, such as Jorge Polanco, Trey Mancini and Carlos Santana. If you leave the first part of the draft low in runs, make sure you work on it quickly as they can be tough to find as the draft progresses.

Also of note as a draft tip, it is imperative to keep track of your projected stats as you progress through the draft rather than just eyeballing it. You can use your own projections or those of a site (a plug here for Jeff Erickson's projections on RotoWire.com), but use something and track after every pick as it will ensure you immediately and clearly see any category you might be getting behind in as you progress round after round.

DON'T: DRAFT HYPED MINOR LEAGUERS OR ROOKIE PITCHERS

I have adjusted a little bit on this over the years (see, I can be not stubborn on occasion!) as I am more comfortable with drafting rookie hitters now, but still don't want rookie pitchers or anyone starting in the minor leagues this early in the draft. If I am going to stash a minor leaguer or two (never more than two), I want it to be in the endgame as we just never really know when a player will get called up. Plus, with small seven-man benches, my desire to make mid-week moves (the NFBC allows you to alter your offensive players on Fridays) and wanting the ability to play pitching matchups, I just don't like to have any other dead spots. I especially don't want them in the mid-game as that level of investment does not allow me to drop them if I run into a rash of injuries early in the season.

This theory did take a hit last year as Fernando Tatis Jr. was taken in the mid-game last year, especially as the news started to lean towards him breaking cap with the Padres, but I feel most rookies are overvalued as someone always wants to grab the sexy new guys each season. While many columns will point to how good Tatis was last year, I could also point to many minor-league disappointments in this range over the years, especially on the pitching side. Chris Paddack bucked the rookie pitcher trend last year with an excellent 3.33 ERA in 140.2 innings, but I am very willing to avoid the hyped rookie in the mid-game to move to a more established player or a young veteran I feel is ready to break out.

DO: TARGET UPSIDE STARTING PITCHING

Most teams will have a couple of solid starters after the first 7-8 rounds and if you do, it is time to try and find those breakout starters to support your aces. If you end up missing on starters early, you may need to focus a bit more on someone who you are sure will throw a lot of innings, but with a couple of anchors, finding those breakout guys is how you really dominate the pitching points. When trying to locate those breakout starters, I like to focus on pitchers who took a step up in a key stat the year prior or seemed to be putting everything together with a good finish to the season.

In 2019, Tyler Glasnow was a good example in the mid-game with an ADP of 158 in the NFBC Main Event. Glasnow had major issues with walks early in 2018, but after getting traded to the Rays, he dropped his walk rate to 3.1 BB/9 after sporting a 5.5 BB/9 mark with the Pirates. When I look back at the teams that kill it in the pitching categories, it is almost always due to the fact that they discovered a couple of really good pitchers in the mid- game to support their top arms.

Looking at NFBC ADP through December, one guy I will be diving deep into for 2020 in the mid- game is Andrew Heaney as his strikeout and walk rates trended very much the right direction in the second half (and the strikeouts were supported by a nice jump in his swinging-strike rate to 14.1%). He could take a nice step up if he could just find a way to limit the long ball. Another example is Max Fried, whose 4.02 ERA doesn't jump off the page, but he was much better in the second half, not just with the ERA, but with a large jump in his strikeout rate up to 10.2 K/9. In my draft prep, I take a deep look at all the starters in the mid-range to try and identify a reason to add them to my target list as I fully believe this is where leagues are won.

DON'T: FORGET ABOUT THE BORING VETERANS

While we all love upside and finding the next big thing, it is important not to forget to intersperse those types with some solid and sometimes forgotten veterans. After pick 150 in 2019, we found veteran gems such as Carlos Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Marcus Semien and Adam Eaton. No one was particularly excited to target those guys, but they carried a nice floor and happened to reach new ceilings of value. Most veterans will not break out like someone like Semien did last year, but they can solidify your lineup and make up for some upside guys who struggle.

When searching for these types in the mid- game, I take a close look at the names and try and locate veterans off a down year that may have been due to injury, poor luck or possibly even a bad team situation. Some of the guys this year I am interested in after pick 150 who won't hurt you and could end up helping you are Corey Seager, Kyle Schwarber, Justin Turner and Lorenzo Cain. Players of this ilk will never be exciting at the draft table, but we are trying to win leagues and money and a few of these types are key to doing that.

DO: DRAFT TWO CLOSERS

Saves have been difficult to figure out for years, but it has significantly ramped up in recent years as more teams move away from a set traditional closer role. In 2019, only 11 closers (same number in 2018) racked up 30 saves and only one (Kirby Yates) posted a 40-save season. As a comparison, in 2014, seven closers topped 40 saves (including Fernando Rodney with 48) and 17 racked up 30 or more saves. In 2009, there were 16 closers with 30 saves and four that tallied over 40 saves. There are a number of factors in play, but it is clear that finding closers who stick in the role all year in a traditional manner is more difficult than it used to be.

Drafters are likely to be a bit wary on closers this year as the top two in most drafts in 2019 were Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen who combined for an ERA over 5.00. Of course, with an overall component to the NFBC, you have to find a way to get saves and while you will probably read many articles about not paying for saves and trying to get them in FAAB, of the 16 closers who racked up 25 or more saves last year, only Ian Kennedy, Hector Neris and Liam Hendriks were available across the board in FAAB with Taylor Rogers available in some, but drafted in most 15-teamers.

Three closers in the free-agent pool with 25 saves might sound like a lot and if you were lucky enough to grab one of them, you were set, but in a 15-team league, unless you get lucky and grab your guy a week early, they will be expensive with a lot of competition for their services. Hansel Robles and Emilio Pagan were also nice scores off the waiver wire, but in the NFBC, you want to try and grab these types as your third closer or to replace a struggling or injured closer, not when you desperately need a second closer. The 2020 closer market looks really rough to predict, but a few roles will get clarified prior to the season. I strongly recommend you get two of them that you like in the mid-game and then adapt as needed in the endgame and during the season.

As you are prepping and breaking down early rounds and finding those late sleepers as we all love to do, make sure to save some hours for the vitally-important mid-game as I am certain when you look back on your league, you will find that many of the players who made the difference in your league will have been drafted in this range. Good luck in the 2020 season and hope to see you on the NFBC leaderboards!

This article appears in the 2020 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. You can order a copy here.