Luis Gil

Last spring, not many had Gil on their list of top AL Rookie of the Year candidates, but he has some hardware to display on his mantle. His award-winning campaign was driven by a .070 ERA in May (3.01 xFIP). His ERA was 4.00 or higher in four of the six months, with three months of an xFIP over 4.35. His season-long 4.36 xFIP and 4.22 SIERA warn of a correction from a 3.50 actual mark. A low .237 BABIP and a high 78.8 percent left on base mark are candidates to regress. Gil can fend off regression by lowering a high 12.1 percent walk rate. His 26.8 percent strikeout rate was 14th highest among pitchers with at least 150 innings, but his K-BB% was just 39th. Pitchers usually improve control the second season removed from Tommy John surgery, so optimism is warranted, just remember he's also due a visit from the regression monster. Read Past Outlooks