Aaron Nola
31-Year-Old
2024 Stats
W-L
12-8
ERA
3.62
WHIP
1.20
K
174
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Nola shocked many when he decided to re-up with the Phillies for seven years rather than test the free agent waters in what was a lucrative market with multiple big market teams looking for pitching. Then again, Nola has pitched very well at Citizens Bank Ballpark over the years whereas his struggles have more recently been away from Philly. You may be surprised to learn that Nola pitched to a 3.29 ERA with 12 homers in 87.2 innings at home in 2023, but had a 5.43 ERA with 20 homers in 106 innings on the road last season. He is a rare bird in that he has not missed a single start since missing a handful of starts in the 2017 season and has pitched at least 180 innings in each of the past five full seasons. He has become rather stingy with walks in recent years while continuing to get 200+ strikeouts year after year. 2021 and 2023 have a familiar look to them and Nola absolutely has the ability to bounce back in 2024 as he did in 2022 while deciding to continue his career where it began. Read Past Outlooks
Rough night vs. Mets
Nola (12-8) took the loss Friday against the Mets, allowing six runs on six hits and two walks over 4.1 innings. He struck out seven.
ANALYSIS
Nola was cruising early Friday, holding the Mets without a hit through his first four innings. However, things would unravel quickly in the fifth when New York led off the frame with back-to-back singles before Francisco Alvarez launched a three-run homer. Nola would allow a second three-run blast to Brandon Nimmo later in the frame, forcing the Phillies to turn to the bullpen. The 31-year-old Nola has dropped back-to-back starts, allowing 10 earned runs over 9.1 innings in that span. His ERA sits at 3.62 on the season with a 1.20 WHIP and 174:47 K:BB across 181.1 innings. Nola will look to get back on track in his next outing, currently scheduled for next week on the road in Milwaukee.
Nola was cruising early Friday, holding the Mets without a hit through his first four innings. However, things would unravel quickly in the fifth when New York led off the frame with back-to-back singles before Francisco Alvarez launched a three-run homer. Nola would allow a second three-run blast to Brandon Nimmo later in the frame, forcing the Phillies to turn to the bullpen. The 31-year-old Nola has dropped back-to-back starts, allowing 10 earned runs over 9.1 innings in that span. His ERA sits at 3.62 on the season with a 1.20 WHIP and 174:47 K:BB across 181.1 innings. Nola will look to get back on track in his next outing, currently scheduled for next week on the road in Milwaukee.
Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
96
Last 10 Games
98
Last 5 Games
99
How many pitches does Aaron Nola generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Aaron Nola generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-6%
BAA vs LHP
2024
-2%
BAA vs LHP
BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2022vs Left | .227 | 275 | 70 | 239 | 41 | |||
Since 2022vs Right | .241 | 336 | 51 | 277 | 38 | |||
2024vs Left | .243 | 76 | 27 | 85 | 17 | |||
2024vs Right | .248 | 98 | 20 | 85 | 11 | |||
2023vs Left | .240 | 90 | 25 | 81 | 16 | |||
2023vs Right | .241 | 112 | 20 | 97 | 16 | |||
2022vs Left | .200 | 109 | 18 | 73 | 8 | |||
2022vs Right | .237 | 126 | 11 | 95 | 11 | |||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
-19%
ERA at Home
2024
-17%
ERA at Home
ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Since 2022Home | 3.38 | 1.00 | 282.2 | 9.8 | 1.8 | ||||
Since 2022Away | 4.15 | 1.19 | 297.1 | 9.2 | 1.9 | ||||
2024Home | 3.31 | 1.07 | 98.0 | 9.2 | 2.2 | ||||
2024Away | 4.00 | 1.34 | 83.1 | 8.0 | 2.5 | ||||
2023Home | 3.29 | 0.97 | 87.2 | 10.0 | 1.7 | ||||
2023Away | 5.43 | 1.30 | 106.0 | 8.9 | 2.4 | ||||
2022Home | 3.53 | 0.96 | 97.0 | 10.3 | 1.6 | ||||
2022Away | 3.00 | 0.96 | 108.0 | 10.3 | 1.0 | ||||
More Splits→ | View More Split Stats |
Stat Review
How does Aaron Nola compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
3.70K/9
8.6BB/9
2.3HR/9
1.4Fastball
92.1 mphERA
3.62WHIP
1.20BABIP
.296GB/FB
1.39Left On Base
78.2%Exit Velocity
81.4 mphBarrels/BBE
4.6%Spin Rate
2314 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
23.3%Swinging Strike
11.2%Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Last year's outlook hinted at the possibilities of a strong bounceback season for Nola, and that is indeed what came to be. Years ago, this was the type of pitcher you could get on the cheap coming off the type of season he had in 2021, but fantasy baseball managers are a smarter bunch these days and Nola had very little discount last winter and is likely to bounce right back to his previous draft status this winter. He has now posted a K-BB% greater than 20% for three consecutive seasons and four of the past five seasons and the new conditions of baseball manufacturing were a blessing to him as it pulled his HR/9 rate below 1.0 for the first time since the 2018 season. He has tweaked his pitch mix by throwing more hard stuff and dialing back on his changeup a bit as the league hit .319 off that offering this season. The only concern with Nola heading into 2023 is the fact he finished last year with 230 innings (playoffs included), which is unchartered waters for him as he has never pitched deep into October.
More Fantasy News
Slips against Fish
Nola (12-7) took the loss Saturday, giving up five runs (four earned) on nine hits and two walks over 4.2 innings as the Phillies fell 9-5 to the Marlins. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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Turns in quality start
Nola allowed two runs on four hits and a walk while striking out nine over six innings in a no-decision versus Atlanta on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Fires seven scoreless in win
Nola (12-6) earned the win against the Astros on Tuesday, allowing four hits and one walk while striking out six over seven scoreless innings.
ANALYSIS
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Decent in no-decision
Nola allowed two runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out five over 5.1 innings in a no-decision versus Atlanta on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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Denied 12th win
Nola came away with a no-decision in Friday's 3-2 win over the Nationals, allowing seven hits and two walks over 6.2 scoreless innings. He struck out four.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Turns down more money
According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Nola turned down more money elsewhere to re-sign with the Phillies on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
The right-hander agreed to a seven-year, $172 million pact with Philadelphia but apparently had more lucrative deals on the table. The contract includes full no-trade protection and no opt outs, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, so Nola will remain with the Phillies for the duration of the deal unless he approves a trade.
The right-hander agreed to a seven-year, $172 million pact with Philadelphia but apparently had more lucrative deals on the table. The contract includes full no-trade protection and no opt outs, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, so Nola will remain with the Phillies for the duration of the deal unless he approves a trade.