Austin Gomber

Gomber was the primary return in the trade that sent Nolan Arenado from the Rockies to the Cardinals last offseason. Although the left-hander battled some injuries during his first year in Colorado, he showed glimpses of promise while maintaining a consistent spot in the rotation. He made 23 starts during the 2021 campaign and posted a 4.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 115.1 innings, but his 4.18 xFIP suggests that he was slightly unlucky. Gomber leaned more heavily on his off-speed pitches and recorded a career-high 11.3% swinging-strike rate as a result. However, the 28-year-old posted a middling 23.2 K% during his first full season in the majors. Although he showed some potential at limiting runs last year, Gomber's lackluster strikeout numbers limit his fantasy potential, particularly when he has to pitch his home games at Coors Field.

Appearing in any capacity in the majors last season would have been a win for Gomber after biceps and shoulder injuries prevented him from throwing any innings at the highest level in 2019. His 1.86 ERA in 29 innings (four starts and 10 relief appearances) is therefore arguably even better than it looks. On the other hand, that ERA appears to be largely a small-sample fluke, as his supporting stats weren't all that impressive. It took a .243 BABIP, 86.7% strand rate and 4.0 HR/FB% to get him to that excellent mark, while his 22.7 K% was slightly below average and his 12.6 BB% was significantly worse than par. Altogether, that's a package more in line with the back-end starter he projected to be as a prospect. If he does look set for a rotation role, he'll be an interesting enough lottery ticket, and his 27.2 K% at the Triple-A level indicates potential for growth, but don't be fooled by his stellar ERA.

Gomber threw 75 innings for the Cardinals in his big-league debut back in 2018, but injuries prevented him from adding to that total last season. He pitched well to start the year for Triple-A Memphis, posting a 2.98 ERA and a 28.1% strikeout rate through eight starts. A biceps issue popped up in mid-May, however, with shoulder fatigue striking in mid-June. He never threw another pitch at the Triple-A level the rest of the season, though he did return for a small handful of rehab innings in the lower minors late in the year. That gives some reason for optimism that Gomber's injuries won't affect him heading into this year, leaving him with nothing more than lost development time. If the lefty is indeed ready to go, there's still no guarantee he'll play a significant role in the big leagues. 18 of his 29 appearances as a rookie came in relief, and he could pitch there again until a rotation spot opens up.

Gomber is an average pitcher whose stuff has become a bit more hittable at each level as he has moved up the system. Scouts grade his pitches as average across the board, giving his breaking ball a slight edge over the other pitches. Gomber struck out 20% of the batters he faced last season, but walking 10% of the remaining hitters is a strike against him. Unlike most lefties, Gomber is mostly split neutral as both righties and lefties had an equal amount of production against him. At the end of the day, we are looking at a pitcher who has the ceiling of a fifth starter. He is clearly on the outside looking in for a spot in the Cardinals' Opening Day rotation, which should remove him from mixed-league consideration. Gomber is an option in the endgame of NL-only, but not one that has much upside.

While Gomber, a fourth round pick in 2014, posted solid numbers in 11 starts at short season ball in 2014, his fielding-independent stats (particularly a 17.4 percent K rate), suggested his excellent run prevention was a bit of a fluke. However, he looks like a legitimate prospect after a stellar full season at Low-A Peoria, where he not only upped his K-rate to 26 percent (thanks to a slight uptick in velocity), but he also lowered his walk rate from 8.7 percent to 6.3 percent. The 6-foot-5 lefty has an above average changeup and a slider that can generate whiffs on the right day, to go with a low-90s fastball. Given his height and handedness, that’s a good enough arsenal to make it as a No. 3 starter down the road. The one knock is that he will be getting his first taste of High-A as a 23-year-old, but he offers more upside than his age and level suggest.