Bobby Dalbec

29-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Free Agent

2024 Stats

AVG

.133

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

The Red Sox appeared to have moved on from Dalbec, a one-time top prospect that failed to deliver in more than 900 at-bats in the majors, as they handed first base to Triston Casas. There was a late-season uprising in 2021, but Dalbec took a step back in 2022 - his inability to consistently hit right-handers made it impossible for the club to consider him as a full-time starter. Deeming Casas ready, the organization placed Dalbec at Triple-A Worcester, where he spent most of the 2023 season. For the WooSox, he made everyone ignore an habitually high strikeout rate; the power-hitting corner infielder mashed with a .938 OPS and 33 home runs over 114 games. In three separate stints in the majors, however, Dalbec reverted to MLB-version of himself. Surprisingly, the Red Sox haven't traded him yet, despite interest from other teams during the winter meetings. With Justin Turner in free agency, Boston needs a right-handed hitting backup, and Dalbec received a vote of confidence from manager Alex Cora and new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow during the offseason. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

From Preseason

#599

ADP

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man No

Height 6'4"

Weight 227

DOB 6/29/1995

Born Seattle, WA

College Arizona

Drafted 4th Rd 2016 BOS

Remains in organization

1BBoston Red Sox

September 10, 2024

The Red Sox outrighted Dalbec to Triple-A Worcester on Tuesday, Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe reports.

ANALYSIS
Dalbec was scrubbed from the 40-man roster over the weekend but will remain in the organization after passing through waivers unclaimed. He will be eligible for minor-league free agency this offseason if he remains off the 40-man roster following the World Series.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+17%

OPS vs LHP

2024

+72%

OPS vs RHP

2023

+133%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+24%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.660	173	17	5	17	1	.224	.318	.342
Since 2022vs Right	.566	326	35	9	31	6	.185	.243	.323
2024vs Left	.291	39	1	0	4	0	.111	.179	.111
2024vs Right	.501	54	5	1	4	3	.149	.245	.255
2023vs Left	.859	22	2	0	0	1	.350	.409	.450
2023vs Right	.368	31	4	1	1	0	.103	.161	.207
2022vs Left	.754	112	14	5	13	0	.240	.348	.406
2022vs Right	.606	241	26	7	26	3	.204	.253	.353
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+4%

OPS on Road

2024

+4%

OPS on Road

2023

+75%

OPS on Road

2022

+1%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.585	229	26	6	24	4	.201	.276	.309
Since 2022Away	.610	270	26	8	24	3	.196	.263	.347
2024Home	.400	43	3	0	5	3	.135	.238	.162
2024Away	.417	50	3	1	3	0	.130	.200	.217
2023Home	.368	14	2	0	0	0	.154	.214	.154
2023Away	.643	39	4	1	1	1	.222	.282	.361
2022Home	.648	172	21	6	19	1	.221	.291	.357
2022Away	.657	181	19	6	20	2	.209	.276	.380
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Bobby Dalbec compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.19

BB Rate

8.6%

K Rate

46.2%

BABIP

.256

ISO

.060

AVG

.133

OBP

.217

SLG

.193

OPS

.410

wOBA

.196

Exit Velocity

86.0 mph

Hard Hit Rate

34.2%

Barrels/PA

1.1%

Expected BA

.119

Expected SLG

.171

Sprint Speed

25.3 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

42.5%

Line Drive %

15.0%

Fly Ball %

42.5%

Prospect Rankings History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2017

Dalbec closed 2021 on such a high note that many thought he was on his way to a big 2022. Alas, that never materialized as Dalbec once again struggled to make contact and struggled mightily against righties leading to a demotion to Triple-A and the short side of platoons until injuries forced him into more playing time. Dalbec can still sting a baseball with the best of them, but his infrequent contact with the baseball limit the moments his bat can make a fantasy impact and he instead serves as a drag on your batting average. Doubling down on the issues is he hits down in the lineup which limits his overall run production. You do not give up on power like his in fantasy, but Boston is rumored to be looking to move on from him and that change of scenery may be just what he needs to push up the run production. Of course, excessive playing time could turn his numbers into another Joey Gallo situation.

On Aug. 7, Dalbec was slashing a season-low .214/.261/.390, with a 38.1 K% and 4.8 BB%. After, he posted a .299/.378/.732 line with a 26.6 K% and 9.1 BB%. While the change was obviously gradual, the difference before and after the nadir was pitch recognition. Dalbec's numbers against fastballs were consistent all season, but he markedly improved against breaking balls and offspeed stuff. His contact rate on curves and sliders increased to go along with a 5.6-mph bump in average exit velocity while his avgEV on changeups spiked 7.6 mph. Clearly, Dalbec can't maintain the power level exhibited in his final 42 games, but handling curves, sliders and changeups better is a great sign. Playing time, however, is unclear as Dalbec's defense at first base is a work in progress. Buy into Dalbec taking the next step but be leery of regular playing time.

Dalbec either struck out, walked or homered in 62 percent of his first 92 plate appearances in the majors. If he had enough PA to qualify, he would have ranked second in the majors behind Miguel Sano in Barrel% (22.0) and K% (42.4). Sano rode that profile to a .204 batting average, which is around where Dalbec would have ended up if he had played enough for his numbers to stabilize. He is a couple years younger than Sano, so we shouldn't think of him as a finished product, but he clearly needs to cut down on the strikeouts to avoid being a net negative in fantasy. The 25-year-old is a natural third baseman, but he is blocked by Rafael Devers and he will soon be blocked at first base by top prospect Triston Casas. Even so, Boston will find a spot for him if he makes the necessary adjustments and gets to his massive all-fields pop without striking out over 35 percent of the time.

A good prospect, yet a flawed one, Dalbec could be a plus defender at third base who hits for plus power, but he may not hit enough for those strengths to matter. He mastered Double-A (143 wRC+) in a return trip, but his version of mastering a level is a .234/.371/.454 line. His 15.5 BB% at Double-A is exactly what his OBP/points-league managers had in mind, but that mark shriveled to 4.1% in 30 games at Triple-A while his AVG jumped closer to his career .261 mark. A three-true-outcomes profile will work fine in real life, given his power and defense, but if his walk rate doesn't bounce back to at least 10%, there is little evidence he will be able to provide enough offensive value to occupy a corner-infield spot on a contending team. He is a better defender than Rafael Devers, but Devers may be so entrenched that Dalbec moves to first base (where his 70-grade arm would be wasted) or the outfield.

Position players get graded on five tools, but those tools do not count the same. Take Dalbec, whose power, arm and glove are at least 60-grade, and possibly 70-grade tools. But if he ends up with a 30-grade hit tool, those sixes and sevens may not matter. He has never been young for his level, yet his strikeout rate has never been below 31% in full-season ball, and was above 37% at Low-A and Double-A. He also led the Arizona Fall League with 32 strikeouts in 20 games. Prior to his promotion to Double-A, he at least paired those whiffs with a ton of walks, but his BB% fell from 14.3% at High-A to 4.8% at Double-A. Dalbec's swing is geared for the type of contact we want -- line drives and flyballs -- but he needs to make contact at an acceptable clip. One comp comes to mind, if we want to take a glass-half-full outlook: Matt Chapman. However, Chapman's contact rates were always slightly better, and his walk rate never plummeted like Dalbec's did in 2018.

Dalbec was a fourth-round draft pick out of the University of Arizona, where he played third base and pitched. On a positional track in the Red Sox's organization, Dalbec was Babe Ruth reincarnated last summer, bashing seven homers while hitting .386 with a 1.101 OPS in 34 games for short-season Lowell. So, how was it that a player with this much power potential, an anticipated first-rounder after mashing in the Cape Cod League during the summer of 2015, slipped to the fourth round? Dalbec slugged just .429 with seven homers while striking out 36.7 percent of the time in 68 games during his junior year at Arizona. The knock that he was an all-or-nothing hitter with a high K-rate. But something changed between the end of his junior year and his summer in Lowell. Dalbec went back to an open stance -- the same one used during the previous summer. His strikeout rate dropped to a manageable 25 percent, but the question remains if Dalbec can hit enough to overcome the strikeouts.

More Fantasy News

DFA'd by Boston

1BBoston Red Sox

September 8, 2024

The Red Sox designated Dalbec for assignment Sunday, Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe reports.