Casey Mize

27-Year-Old PitcherSP

Detroit Tigers

2024 Stats

W-L

2-6

ERA

4.47

WHIP

1.40

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

When healthy, Mize has looked like a solid MLB pitcher. However, an elbow injury cut his 2022 campaign short after only two starts, and then he missed all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. Back in 2021, Mize posted a 3.71 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 118 strikeouts across 150.1 innings in his first full season as starter for Detroit. The 26-year-old should have a rotation spot locked up heading into 2024, though the Tigers will undoubtedly limit his workload, and it's fair to expect some rust. Mize was drafted first overall back in 2018, so the talent is certainly there, and fantasy managers will be keeping a watchful eye on how he looks early in the season. However, the best bet for now is to temper expectations and probably not count on Mize for consistent production right away. He's still only made 39 starts at the MLB level, so even if he wasn't returning from a major surgery, the young righty would probably be a volatile option anyways. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Projection

Dynasty

From Preseason

#386

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 220

DOB 5/1/1997

Born Springville, AL

College Auburn

Drafted 1st Rd 2018 DET

Can't hang on for win

PDetroit Tigers

September 12, 2024

Mize came away with a no-decision in Wednesday's 7-4 win over the Rockies, giving up four runs on six hits over 4.2 innings. He struck out seven without walking a batter.

ANALYSIS
The Tigers staked Mize to a 6-0 lead in the bottom of the first inning, but the right-hander couldn't get out of the fifth to qualify for the win, exiting after 66 pitches (47 strikes). Mize's performance since returning from a two-month absence due to a hamstring injury has been a mixed bag -- over three starts and 16 innings, he's posted a 5.63 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 13:2 K:BB while serving up four homers. He lines up to make his next trip to the mound on the road early next week in Kansas City.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2024 MLB Game Log

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Scoring

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Casey Mize generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Casey Mize generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-23%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-18%

BAA vs LHP

2023

No Stats

2022

-66%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.250	231	43	17	52	8	2	6
Since 2022vs Right	.324	227	32	8	71	12	4	6
2024vs Left	.259	214	42	15	50	8	2	5
2024vs Right	.314	199	29	8	60	11	1	6
2023vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2023vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022vs Left	.133	17	1	2	2	0	0	1
2022vs Right	.393	28	3	0	11	1	3	0
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-12%

ERA at Home

2024

-20%

ERA at Home

2023

No Stats

2022

-50%

ERA on Road

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	4.30	1.26	58.2	0	4	0	6.8	1.4	1.1
Since 2022Away	4.89	1.61	46.0	2	3	0	6.1	3.1	1.0
2024Home	4.02	1.25	53.2	0	3	0	7.0	1.5	1.0
2024Away	5.05	1.61	41.0	2	3	0	6.4	3.1	1.1
2023Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2023Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2022Home	7.20	1.40	5.0	0	1	0	3.6	0.0	1.8
2022Away	3.60	1.60	5.0	0	0	0	3.6	3.6	0.0
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Casey Mize compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

3.09

K/9

6.8

BB/9

2.2

HR/9

1.0

Fastball

95.5 mph

ERA

4.47

WHIP

1.40

BABIP

.336

GB/FB

1.81

Left On Base

68.0%

Exit Velocity

83.5 mph

Barrels/BBE

4.7%

Spin Rate

2054 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

27.6%

Swinging Strike

9.8%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Casey Mize Prospect Ranking History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Tigers Depth Chart

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

After a promising 2021 campaign, Mize seemed primed for big things in 2022, but he only made two starts before getting shut down due to an elbow injury. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June and now seems likely to miss most if not all of 2023. It's a big blow for the Tigers, who drafted Mize first overall in 2018. His MLB debut season in 2020 wasn't great, as he posted 6.99 ERA and 1.48 WHIP across 28.1 innings. However, given a longer look in 2021, Mize pitched much better. He tallied a 3.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP across 150.1 innings, though his 7.06 K/9 and 4.71 FIP suggested he wasn't overly dominant. Still, it was a good campaign overall, and given Mize's prospect pedigree, it's fair to think that he has another level yet to reach. That will just have to wait until 2024 and beyond, so fantasy managers can ignore Mize in standard leagues, though he still has plenty of upside in keeper and dynasty formats.

After a disappointing 2020, albeit only 28.1 innings, Mize rebounded to exhibit why the Tigers used the first overall pick in 2018 to secure his services. OK, he wasn't dominant, but he teased his potential and he's embarking on just his age-25 season. Detroit did a good job managing Mize's workload, giving him extra rest down the stretch. After compiling 150.1 frames last season, the kid gloves should be off. Mize needs to miss more bats as a 19.3 K% won't get it done, at least not if he's going to be a front-of-the-rotation guy. He throws five pitches with only his four-season fastball and slider topping a 10% swinging strike rate, and just barely at that. Five pitches are a lot to work with, so it's too early to give up on more whiffs. Maybe Mize's future is a mid-rotation innings eater. The cost to find out is reasonable and there should be opportunities to stream in a weak division.

Mize's rookie season was a disaster from a results standpoint, but at least he is healthy and his stuff is intact. If he were in a different organization, say Cleveland, he would be advised to lean on his filthy trio of offspeed pitches while cutting his fourseamer and sinker usage from a combined 52 percent to around 40 percent. Whether Mize and the Tigers will go that route remains to be seen, but he currently has the pitches to have sustained success, he just needs to optimize his pitch usage. He also struggled to throw his fastball for strikes, which led to a 9.8 BB% -- almost double the 5.6 BB% he logged in 2019 at Double-A. Improving his fastball command would help greatly if Mize is to have a post-hype breakout in his second season. We should never expect pitching prospects to shove as rookies, yet recency bias still tends to seep in when one understandably pitches like a rookie.

During Mize's final year at Auburn, he had a 2.25 ERA in his first 84 innings and a 7.01 ERA in his final 30 innings. In his first full year in pro ball, he had a 0.92 ERA in his first 78 innings and a 6.61 ERA in his final 31.1 innings. The first overall pick in 2018 has a very deep arsenal -- he added another breaking ball last year -- and his plus command allows him to be very efficient with his pitches. However, we're waiting for the 22-year-old righty to take the final step in his development and show that he can handle a MLB starter's workload. He missed a month in the middle of the year with a shoulder strain and was ominously shut down 16 days prior to the end of Double-A Erie's season. We know Mize can dominate minor-league hitters over the first few months of a season. His true test in 2020 will be pitching well over the final three months, and that test should come in the big-league rotation.

There was not much drama at 1-1 in 2018, as Mize had been rumored there for months and was indeed selected by Detroit, garnering a class-high $7.5 million bonus. A 6-foot-3 righty with a workhorse 220-pound frame, Mize has a deep, complex arsenal. He sits at 94-95 mph with his fastball, touching 96 in pro ball and 97 in college. His 88-mph splitter essentially works as his changeup, and is seen as his best pitch, grading anywhere from plus to double-plus, depending on when it was seen. He also throws a mid-80s cutter and a low-80s slider -- both of which will flash plus. Mize is known as a strike thrower with the potential for plus command, giving him true frontline upside. He battled arm issues in 2017 but stayed healthy in 2018 and was shut down at High-A in mid-August after reaching his innings limit. The Tigers will assign him to either High-A or Double-A. If he stays healthy he should be the first starting pitcher from his class to reach the majors.

More Fantasy News

Allows two homers in no-decision

PDetroit Tigers

September 6, 2024

Mize did not factor into the decision in a win over the Padres on Thursday, allowing three runs on six hits and one walk over 5.1 innings while striking out two.

ANALYSIS
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Goes six innings in return

PDetroit Tigers

August 30, 2024

Mize didn't factor into the decision Friday against the Red Sox, allowing four runs on six hits and a walk over six innings. He struck out four.

ANALYSIS
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Activated, starting Friday

PDetroit Tigers

August 30, 2024

The Tigers activated Mize (hamstring) from the 60-day injured list Friday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.

ANALYSIS
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Lining up for Friday's start

PDetroit Tigers

Hamstring

August 27, 2024

Manager A.J. Hinch said Mize (hamstring) threw a successful bullpen session Tuesday, likely putting the right-hander on track to return from the 60-day injured list to start Friday versus the Red Sox, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.

ANALYSIS
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Completes fourth rehab start

PDetroit Tigers

Hamstring

August 25, 2024

Mize (hamstring) struck out seven and allowed three earned runs on three hits and no walks over 4.2 innings in his rehab start Saturday with Triple-A Toledo.

ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Rain won't spoil 2024 debut?

PDetroit Tigers

April 2, 2024

Mize may be able to make his season debut against the Mets as scheduled Tuesday, as Mets officials expect there to be a window to play despite ongoing inclement weather, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.

ANALYSIS
Mize will be making his first appearance in the big leagues since 2022 after he spent last season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. New York is getting a fair amount of rain Tuesday, so there's a chance the 26-year-old's 2024 debut will be pushed back, though it appears they'll attempt to get the game in.

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