Edward Cabrera

If you are comfortable chasing upside be damned the risks, Cabrera should be a primary target for you this draft season. We're talking about a righty with above average velocity, a very unique changeup, and three pitches with greater than 30% whiff rates and his four primary offerings holding opposing hitters to a batting average of .182 or less. He made 14 starts for the Marlins, winning six of them around 10 homers and 33 walks in just 71.2 innings of work. That unique changeup is such because it is his primary pitch and he throws it in the low 90's. While it offers little velo separation from his fastball, it is tough to argue with the results of the pitch in 2022. The changeup heavy approach makes him deadly against lefties (.168/.241/.240) but righties were able to get on base due to the walks and take advantage of mistakes (.185/.344/.411.) Cabrera throws the changeup equally to righties and lefties, but gets into trouble with righties when he falls behind and attepts to climb back ahead with his fastball. The pieces are there for a successful 2023 campaign, but some assembly is still required.

Cabrera was able to throw 87.2 innings primarily across Double-A, Triple-A and the majors last season despite a biceps injury limiting him early and toe and finger injuries limiting him late. Back and arm injuries have limited Cabrera in past seasons as well, and given that he averages 97 mph on his fastball, he should still be seen as a significant injury risk until further notice. The slender 6-foot-5 righty also throws a 92-mph changeup, 88-mph slider and 83-mph curveball, all of which are thrown significantly harder than league average. His breaking balls are very effective, with his slider generating a 39.6 Whiff% in the majors and his curveball generating a 42.0 Whiff% in the minors. However his fourseam fastball doesn't play as well as its velocity would indicate, and his changeup was more like a batting practice fastball, with big leaguers teeing off to the tune of a .455 batting average and 1.091 slugging percentage (.511 xwOBA). Given the quality of his breaking balls, Cabrera needs to keep his changeup below hitters' knees if he is going to keep throwing it. The Marlins have some of the best starting pitching depth in the league, so while Cabrera will likely spend most of spring training in big-league camp, he will probably open the year in the rotation at Triple-A.

Cabrera dealt with right shoulder discomfort and a back issue at the alternate site in late July and didn't resume mound work until September. He likely would have made his MLB debut last summer if he'd been perfectly healthy. As with any young hurler who can touch triple digits, Cabrera has always been a high-risk prospect from a health standpoint. Add in the fact that he recently dealt with an arm/shoulder issue, and the risk of him missing significant time in the near future is up there with any top-100 pitching prospect. When fully healthy, Cabrera can match the high ceilings of the rest of Miami's young high-voltage starters. He pairs a plus breaking ball with his plus-plus fastball, while his third-pitch changeup is still a bit of a work in progress. If he develops average command, Cabrera could be a No. 2 starter. He will likely head to Triple-A and could debut in the first half if he stays healthy.

A projectable 6-foot-4, 175-pound righty, Cabrera had a breakout year across stops at High-A and Double-A, and now projects as at least a mid-rotation starter. He was unsurprisingly dominant (24.2 K-BB%) in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League, then kept rolling (19.2 K-BB%) in eight starts in the Southern League. His sinking mid-90s fastball can touch triple digits and projects as a 70-grade pitch. The big development last year was that his slider and changeup now project as plus offerings, giving him the arsenal of a No. 2 starter. He has kept his walk rate under 10% at each stop in full-season ball, and should continue to improve as a strike thrower in his age-22 season. He missed a couple weeks with a back injury and almost a month with an infection. Building up to 120-plus innings will be a big goal for 2020. Nonetheless, he is on a clear starter's track, and should be a rotation fixture in 2021.