George Kirby

George Kirby

26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Seattle Mariners
2024 Fantasy Outlook
After being highly touted as a prospect, Kirby showed great promise in his debut season in 2022. The right-hander took his game to another level in his sophomore campaign, shaving his walk rate from 4.1% to a minuscule 2.5%, the lowest among qualified starters. Kirby has already made history multiple times with his strike-throwing; he tossed 24 consecutive strikes at one point as a rookie and now owns the record for the most quality starts with zero walks (11) by a pitcher age 25 or younger. Kirby lowered his WHIP from 1.21 as a rookie to 1.04 last season while adding more than 60 innings to his 2022 total. His five-pitch mix would seem to give him some room for growth in the strikeout department (career 23.5 K%), but until we see that growth, Kirby should probably remain just outside the fantasy ace tier. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#40
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Mariners in March of 2024.
Allows one hit Sunday
PSeattle Mariners
September 16, 2024
Kirby (12-11) got the win Sunday over the Rangers after tossing seven scoreless innings while allowing just one hit and striking out three.
ANALYSIS
The lone hit against Kirby was a single in the second inning and he immediately got a double play ball on the very next pitch. It was Kirby's 27th quality start with zero walks since 2022 which is seven more than any other player over that span. Seven innings ties his longest outing of the year, and it was his first time going that deep since July 26. His strikeout numbers have dipped a bit lately, as he's struck out fewer than five batters in four of his last five starts. Overall, Kirby is enjoying another strong campaign with a 3.62 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 169:22 K:BB in 179 innings. His next start projects to come on the road against the Rangers again this weekend.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2020
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
90
Last 10 Games
91
Last 5 Games
89
How many pitches does George Kirby generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does George Kirby generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-8%
BAA vs RHP
2023
Even Split
2022
 
 
-35%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .240 976 244 39 221 42 8 26
Since 2022vs Right .262 1055 230 24 265 44 4 31
2024vs Left .259 338 85 14 82 18 2 12
2024vs Right .237 394 84 8 90 17 1 10
2023vs Left .246 354 82 11 83 13 5 10
2023vs Right .247 403 90 8 96 15 2 12
2022vs Left .210 284 77 14 56 11 1 4
2022vs Right .324 258 56 8 79 12 1 9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-24%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-25%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-32%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-7%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 2.99 1.02 247.0 17 12 0 9.4 1.1 0.8
Since 2022Away 3.92 1.17 252.2 16 14 0 7.7 1.2 1.2
2024Home 3.06 1.01 82.1 6 5 0 9.2 1.1 0.5
2024Away 4.10 1.15 96.2 6 6 0 7.9 1.1 1.6
2023Home 2.70 0.89 93.1 8 4 0 9.3 1.0 0.9
2023Away 3.98 1.18 97.1 5 6 0 7.0 0.8 1.2
2022Home 3.28 1.22 71.1 3 3 0 9.7 1.3 1.1
2022Away 3.53 1.19 58.2 5 2 0 8.6 1.8 0.6
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does George Kirby compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
7.68
 
K/9
8.5
 
BB/9
1.1
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
96.0 mph
 
ERA
3.62
 
WHIP
1.08
 
BABIP
.309
 
GB/FB
1.13
 
Left On Base
70.5%
 
Exit Velocity
82.4 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.7%
 
Spin Rate
2132 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
22.2%
 
Swinging Strike
11.7%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
Kirby is an extremely fascinating pitching profile for a few reasons. His primary calling card is his fastball command as he has been incredibly stingy with walks as a pitcher since college. He has 43 walks in 247 innings of professional baseball and walked 50 in 240 innings as a college pitcher at Elon University. He uses that fastball command to fill the strikezone with his fastball as he throws his four-seamer 45% of the time and the league hit .221 against that pitch. That fastball, by velo and movement, aligns him with the likes of Brandon Woodruff, Frankie Montas, Zack Wheeler, and Jameson Taillon according to StatCast. The other part of his profile is the rest of his repertoire is very hittable as every other pitch he threw had an opponents' batting average .266 or higher. Despite that challenge, he won 8 of his 25 starts upon his promotion and still had a good ratios with a stellar 21% K-BB%. If any of his secondary offerings can take a step forward, things could get very interesting for him in a hurry as there were signficant gaps in his actual vs expected batting averages on his cutter, sinker, and slider. Wide awake sleeper!
At this point, Kirby seems like a near finished product by pitching prospect standards, with the main question mark being durability. He regularly went seven or eight days in between starts last year and missed three weeks in May and and another four weeks in July with shoulder/arm issues. All told, the 6-foot-4 righty logged a 2.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 80:15 K:BB in 67.2 innings (15 starts) across High-A and Double-A. He has always had some of the best command and control in the minors, and Kirby now boasts a monster mid-to-high 90s fastball with good life and three secondary offerings with upside -- his plus upper-80s slider is currently his best offspeed pitch. It's easy to see Kirby maxing out as the Mariners' best pitcher and a true frontline arm if he can start pushing up to 150-plus innings, but just getting to 120-plus innings would be an accomplishment in 2022.
On paper, Kirby stacks up with any pitching prospect in the game. The only problem is that we're still mostly working with scouting grades and biographical data, rather than a track record in pro games. His command projects to be as good as, if not better than, that of any other top pitching prospect, which is a nice place to start. He also has a picturesque delivery coming from a prototypical 6-foot-4, 200-pound frame. Kirby's command has typically been the highlight of his scouting report, but his low-90s fastball ticked up and became a mid-90s pitch that touched 99 mph this past summer at the alternate training site. The 20th overall pick in 2019 out of Elon (a small university in North Carolina) also boasts three average or better secondaries, with his slider and changeup each showing plus potential. He is advanced enough to reach the majors with fewer than 100 pro innings under his belt.
Amateur pitchers with Kirby's potentially elite command that also happen to have legitimate stuff are a rare breed. After walking six batters in 88.1 innings as a junior at Elon, Kirby issued zero walks over 23 innings in his debut. He has a prototypical 6-foot-4, 205-pound frame and a picturesque right-handed delivery. While he didn't face tough competition at the small North Carolina school, Kirby has four average or better pitches, with his low-90s fastball playing as a plus pitch due to his command and extension. Given his size, he could realistically gain fastball velocity with pro instruction. With this profile, we should expect excellent numbers, particularly in the lower levels, where his command and deep arsenal should carry the day. If a couple of his offspeed pitches become plus offerings, Kirby could develop into at least a No. 2 starter. Without any improvements, he could be a No. 4.
More Fantasy News
Surrenders two homers
PSeattle Mariners
September 10, 2024
Kirby (11-11) took the loss Tuesday against the Padres, allowing five runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out four over five innings.
ANALYSIS
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Fans nine in win
PSeattle Mariners
September 5, 2024
Kirby (11-10) picked up the win over Oakland on Wednesday, allowing two runs on six hits over six innings while striking out nine.
ANALYSIS
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Evens record with Friday's win
PSeattle Mariners
August 30, 2024
Kirby (10-10) earned the win over the Angels on Friday, allowing five runs on five hits and a walk while striking out two over 5.2 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Inefficient in 10th loss
PSeattle Mariners
August 24, 2024
Kirby (9-10) took the loss Saturday, giving up three runs on nine hits and a walk over 4.2 innings as the Mariners were downed 4-3 by the Giants. He struck out three.
ANALYSIS
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Back on track
PSeattle Mariners
August 18, 2024
Kirby (9-9) earned the win Sunday, allowing two runs on four hits and two walks over six innings against the Pirates. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Not untouchable?
PSeattle Mariners
July 20, 2023
Kirby could be included as part of a package for Shohei Ohtani, speculates Jim Bowden of The Athletic.
ANALYSIS
Kirby, a 2019 first-round pick, owns a 3.43 ERA this season and a 3.41 ERA across 43 career starts. His .266 expected batting average is subpar, but he counters that with excellent control that's evidenced by his 2.4 percent walk rate, which is the best mark among all qualifiers. He's a logically desirable target in the context of an Ohtani blockbuster.
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