Gleyber Torres

After amazing 2018 and 2019 seasons, Torres has not been the same, especially in the power department with his home-run rate dropping from around 20% HR/FB to 7%. He would have been completely irrelevant last season if he hadn't stolen 14 bases. There isn't just one "issue" but several items working together to drag down Torres' production. His Pull% is down about six percentage points. His groundball rate is up four percentage points (i.e. career-low launch angle). Career lows in avgEV and Statcast's Hard Hit%. He hit for no power against righties (.088 ISO). He's destroyed sinkers (1.101 OPS) and he's seeing fewer of them with pitchers throwing him more changeups (15 SwStr%). Chances are, he is not headed back to the 38 homers of 2019, but some total in the low 20s is possible if he improves all the values headed in the wrong direction.

When Torres exploded for 38 homers in 2019, there was reason to be skeptical given his ho-hum peripherals. Still, few foresaw the extent of his power dropoff in 2020. After posting a 14.4 AB/HR (17th-best in baseball) the previous campaign, Torres homered only three times in 136 at-bats last season. Per Statcast, his 38.0 Hard% was actually slightly up from 2019, and his average exit velocity stayed relatively constant. So what went wrong? First, Torres rarely barreled the ball -- his 3.7 Barrel% ranked in the 13th percentile leaguewide. Second, he passed on too many good pitches, registering a 69.8 Meatball Swing % -- down 15.1% from his breakthrough campaign. Increased patience led to a career-best 13.8 BB% and 17.5 K%, but the decline in production made it a significant net loss. Torres has the talent to bounce back, but don't be surprised if 2019 turns out to be his peak season.

The game is in a great place with a multitude of talented youngsters, and Torres is near the front of the class with his potential. The young slugger took over minority ownership of the Baltimore franchise in 2019, hitting 13 of his 38 homers against the bottom-feeding Orioles pitching staff and also hit 29 of his 38 homers against right-handed pitching on the season. His home/road splits are not as drastic as one would assume with his friendly home stadium, though his expected stats paint a somewhat worrisome picture for his 2020 projections. While his expecting batting average was identical to his actual mark, his expected slugging percentage was 64 points below his actual SLG. None of his batted-ball events ranked in the top 10 percentile on the year, but some of his actual outcomes ranked in the overall top 20. It would be best to taper the 2020 expectations rather than expect another step forward.

Torres' lack of impact speed caps his fantasy upside, but make no mistake about it; he's among the most polished young hitters in the game. At the ripe age of 21, Torres was 20% better than league average, even after accounting for park effects. He went on an incredible run shortly after his callup in late April, smacking nine homers over the course of 16 games. Torres ended up missing some time with a hip strain and the numbers really weren't good following his return (.249/.329/.404 in his final 60 regular-season games), but that's not the worst thing in the world for those of us trying to profit in the fantasy game. With a high-pedigree player like Torres, we should expect development and year-over-year improvement, and that late slide figures to keep him cost-effective in 2019. Look for him to primarily play second base, but if the Troy Tulowitzki experiment is a flop, he could get over 20 starts at shortstop before Didi Gregorius (elbow) returns.

Just as it seemed a promotion to the Bronx was imminent, Torres ended up needing Tommy John surgery in June. Fortunately, position players typically only require six months to return from the procedure. Consider that Carl Crawford went under the knife in August 2012 and was ready for Opening Day in 2013. Torres should begin the year at Triple-A after playing just 23 games there in 2017, but will be summoned to take over at second base as soon as the Yankees think he is ready, likely within the first couple months of the season. His best offensive tool is his ability to hit for a high average, but he should also provide 20-to-25 homer power with a handful of steals in his prime years. In addition to his plus hit tool, Torres is a patient hitter with the on-base skills to hit first or second, even in a stacked Yankees lineup. He could add eligibility at shortstop (his natural position) and/or third base if the Yankees utilize his defensive versatility.

Torres was viewed as surplus for the Cubs, a team stacked up the middle of the diamond with young talent. The Yankees were more than happy to take him off Chicago's hands, though, as Torres was dealt to New York as part of the Aroldis Chapman trade. The teenager is just scratching the surface of his potential, having never played a game above High-A. Still, glimpses of future stardom were evident in 2016, as Torres slashed .270/.354/.421 with 11 home runs, 66 RBI and 21 steals as one of the younger players in the Florida State League. Torres has always had above-average speed, but the development of a power stroke would really take his game to new heights. The Yankees are hoping that Torres continues to flash that home-run power as he matures. Torres will likely start the 2017 campaign at Double-A, as it appears he is the shortstop of the future for the Yankees, with Jorge Mateo trying out other positions.

This time last year, Torres was an 18-year-old infielder barely on the radar in the Cubs' system, but he shot up the prospect rankings in 2015, though that was partially due to the Cubs promoting many of their top prospects into key roles during the regular season. He isn't showing much power yet (just five home runs 669 at-bats), but he slashed .293/.353/.386 for Low-A South Bend before a brief promotion to High-A Myrtle Beach. His speed is an asset - he stole 22 bases in 35 attempts for South Bend - and he has shown he can take a walk. The Cubs can afford to be patient with him, but he could be a nice top-of-the-order infielder within a few years.

Torres was one of the top international prospects when the Cubs signed him in 2013. He's also barely 18. While he's shown the ability to take a walk during his brief appearances at the lowest levels in the organization, it's a bit too early to project him for greatness. He has the potential to be a five-tool player, but he's years away from the majors and there are a number of young shortstops blocking his path at the big league level.