J.D. Martinez

Martinez struggled in 2020 with a .213 average, torpedoed by a near 100-point drop in his BABIP to .259. There was a lot of trepidation toward drafting him as a result. He answered all doubters with a 1.169 OPS in April, and hit for a .805 OPS over the rest of the season. While a near-.800 OPS is not ideal, it is similar to the rates of Nolan Arenado (.807 OPS) and Mitch Haniger (.804 OPS). He's a rosterable player, but not the same player who was consistently hitting 40-plus homers with a .300 average. His maxEV used to be around 115 mph, but it's closer to 113 mph the last three seasons. With less power, he's compensated by raising his launch angle each season since 2018 (from 10.8 degrees in 2018 to 16.9 degrees last season, while his GB% was near a career low). His HR/FB has been cut in half since 2017, going from 33.8% to 15.7% last year. Right now, his profile screams good, not elite. Pay for the good, and hope he has the ability to bring back his old self one more time.

Major League Baseball implemented a policy against in-tunnel video in 2020 and Martinez hated the policy, blaming it in large part for his struggles. He complained about it early and often, and never really seemed to get over it. He looked surprisingly awful at the plate for most of the season, particularly against fastballs. Martinez hit .318 and slugged .574 off fastballs in 2019, but those numbers fell to .186 and .372 last season. He put up the 2019 numbers even while dealing with a balky back, but he just looked completely overmatched at the plate more often than not in 2020. Even his well-documented domination of lefties suffered as the career .310/.382/.568 hitter against southpaws had a 2020 finish of .214/.286/.393. Expect a rebound in 2021 because he has had an offseason to adjust his preparation, but a full recovery to 2015-2019 is unlikely.

For a player with this kind of power -- among the most prolific in the game -- 36 home runs in a record-setting HR season qualify as a slight disappointment. While Martinez didn't finish north of 40 as he did in 2017 and 2018, he did clear the .300 BA threshold. He also cleared triple digits in RBI for the fourth time in five seasons and surpassed 200 runs-plus-RBI for the second consecutive year. The fact is, he's so much more than "Just Dingers." Martinez has chipped away at his K%, lowering it to 21%, and he walks more than 10% of the time. While certainly not a good defender, Martinez still qualifies as an OF-eligible player, one who has the luxury of playing most of his games at DH. If a 21st ranked finish among hitters is what we can expect in a "down" year from Martinez, then consider us very much in at a second-round cost. He's still going to be only 32 years old for most of the 2020 season.

Martinez was unsigned deep into last winter, but the wait was worth it after he found the perfect landing spot in Boston. While mainly serving as the club's DH, Martinez avoided the health issues that plagued him as an everyday outfielder the prior two seasons, playing in 150 games and setting career highs in AVG (.330), OBP (.402), RBI (130), runs (111) and extra-base hits (82). As has held true since his 2014 breakout, Martinez remains a Statcast darling, with his elite hard-hit and barrel rates yielding elevated BABIPs for a player with limited speed. The stellar batted-ball metrics bolster Martinez's odds of finishing near the top of the home-run and average leaderboards again in 2019, while his spot in a lineup that includes a bevy of young stars sets him up for ample run-producing and run-scoring chances. Martinez retains outfield eligibility after logging 57 starts in 2018, mitigating any concern about his worthiness of a first-round selection.

Despite missing six weeks at the start of the season due to a foot injury, Martinez finished third in the majors with 45 home runs. He produced at an otherworldly rate after being traded from Detroit to Arizona, hitting 29 homers and driving in 65 runs in just 62 games with the Diamondbacks. He was great against both handedness of pitcher, but Martinez absolutely destroyed lefties to the tune of a .376/.464/.892 batting line. Overall, Martinez's barrel rate of 12.3 Brls/PA trailed only Aaron Judge's mark, according to Statcast. He's now hit over .300 in three of the last four seasons, and Martinez is still just 30, so it should be a while before any significant age-related skills regression sets in. He landed with the Red Sox in free agency, giving him added appeal as a late-first/early-second rounder with a combination of elite power and batting average.

It would be wrong to say Martinez struggled through the first two months of 2016, but his .820 OPS was a level below the upper-.800 range he had shown over the previous the two seasons. When he hit at a 1.076 OPS clip for the first two weeks in June, it looked like everything was back on track until he ran into a wall in foul territory during a game in Kansas City and fractured his left elbow, forcing him to miss nearly two months. There were some concerns about his power upon return, but a dramatic eighth-inning home run against Chris Sale in his first at-bat back stomped that fear down. He got hits in each of his first five games back and 19 of 20 afterward. The bottom line was another 517 plate appearances that further solidify him as one of the game's premier power bats. He flirted with 40 homers back in 2015 before the power surge swept the league, and he remains a candidate to eclipse that mark in a full season.

Martinez proved his breakout of 2014 was real with elite production in 2015. He delivered 38 home runs and 102 RBI, with an .879 OPS; all three of those stats were top-10 in the American League. His OBP (.344) was still solid despite whiffing 178 times. The Tigers and his fantasy owners can live with those strikeouts if Martinez can continue to deliver as one of MLB's best power hitters. Draft him as a top-10 outfielder, but watch for a drop-off in performance after the All-Star break. Martinez has been a better first-half performer the last two seasons and seems to tire a bit in the second half.

Martinez was easily one of the biggest fantasy surprises of 2014. After being released by the Astros during spring training, Martinez was quickly signed to a minor league contract by the Tigers, who assigned him to Triple-A Toledo to begin the season. He was able to force the Tigers’ hand after just 17 games with the Mud Hens and his success carried over to the majors, as Martinez quickly took over as Detroit’s everyday left fielder. While it’s hard to argue with the strong numbers he posted, Martinez’s production was buoyed by an unsustainable .397 BABIP. He also struggled with his plate discipline, posting a 71 percent contact rate and 0.24 BB/K ratio. The odds are stacked against Martinez repeating his magical 2014 campaign, but he is a former top prospect with solid power, and it certainly won’t hurt his cause hitting behind superstars Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Owners will want to make sure they don’t pay for his 2014 production, but there’s still plenty of value to be had here if the price tag is right.

Martinez began the season hitting third for the Astros, but imploded the second time through the division, earning himself a demotion in early August. Still, we can not call 2012 a total failure. Martinez proved that he can hit well in the clutch (as evidenced in part by his team-leading RBI total), though few would argue that he has below-average speed and is stiff on the basepaths. The Astros' move to the American League will afford Martinez some added opportunities in the DH spot, but that role may be shared with Brett Wallace thanks to the addition of Carlos Pena at first base.

The Hunter Pence trade coupled with a hot start at the plate allowed Martinez to parlay a late July callup into an opportunity to remain a regular in the Astros lineup for most of the remainder of the season. He can hit for a decent average and has developing power, though the questions persist about his ultimate upside. The Astros have a lot of outfield options, so there's a chance Martinez could be moved to right from left. He figures to get regular at-bats, wherever he winds up playing.