Jo Adell

Adell flashed a bit in 2021 with a .703 OPS but was unable to build on that production last season. He finished 2022 with .223/.263/.372 slash line and 37.9 percent strikeout rate in what ended up being an all-around disappointing campaign for the Angels. The former top prospect's luster has worn off since he made his MLB debut in 2020, leading the Halos to acquire Hunter Renfoe to fill right field for 2023, with Mike Trout and Taylor Ward rounding out the outfield. Adell now has no clear path to playing time and could return to the Triple-A level, where he once again excelled last year with a .920 OPS. Adell will turn 24 years old in April and still has plenty of time to turn it around, and the Angels may attempt to focus on his development in the minors during 2023 with more stability in the major-league outfield after the addition of Renfroe.

It was crystal clear that Adell was overmatched against big-league pitching in 2020. The Angels sent him back to the minors to begin 2021 and Adell earned his ticket back on the strength of a .289/.342/.592 line over four months with Triple-A Salt Lake. His offensive contributions with the big club were still slightly below average in their totality, but Adell showed significant improvement with his strikeout rate at age 22, fanning at only a 22.9% clip compared to 41.7% in 2020. The walk rate did not improve notably and Adell will likely endure more growing pains, but his tools made Adell a top prospect in the game not too long ago. One aspect of his game that may have been oversold at the time: the stolen bases. Adell is an elite runner, but he has only 43 steals in 394 professional games. Swiping bags does not seem like a high priority for him, or at least it hasn't been in the past.

The Angels called Adell up Aug. 3, and at age 21, he was simply overmatched against big-league pitching. He logged 132 PA, technically losing prospect status in the short season, and had a 41.7 K%. Adell managed three barrels on 69 batted balls and ranked dead last in xwOBA. He did have a two-homer game and his max exit velocity of 115.5 mph ranked 14th in the majors, higher than the likes of George Springer, Ronald Acuna and Bryce Harper among many others. Further, Adell's sprint speed ranked in the 98th percentile, so the tools are there for him to develop into the fantasy star many have predicted. He did not appear particularly close to putting it all together, and there is a good chance Adell ends up needing more time in the minors. There is both performance risk and playing-time downside, and a wide range of outcomes with heavy opposing forces balancing the risk/reward fulcrum.

This is not a Vlad Jr. situation where we are confident in Adell debuting in late April, but he will get the call when he looks ready. He missed the first two months due to ankle and hamstring injuries and then dominated (173 wRC+, .245 ISO, 22.5 K%, 10.4 BB%) in a return to the Southern League. Adell struggled in 27 games at Triple-A (67 wRC+, 32.6 K%) and was just OK in the Arizona Fall League (.796 OPS, 29:11 K:BB in 24 games). He has at least 60-grade raw power but has 33 HR in 199 games above rookie ball (including the AFL), so he may not enter MLB ready to hit 30-plus HR. It's the same story with his plus speed -- he has an 89.3% success rate but only attempted 28 steals in those 199 games. The strikeouts are a concern, especially in the short term, but his batted-ball profile really improved last year. Adell's upside is still more abstract than substantive, but players with his raw talent are rare.

The toolsiest hitter in the 2017 MLB draft, Adell's physical gifts were too much for Low-A and High-A pitchers to handle in his first full season. He has immense raw power, plus speed for center field and a big enough arm for right. There is still work to do with his approach, and he has not been asked to make many adjustments yet, given his rapid ascent from Low-A to Double-A. Adell struck out 25.2% of the time across his three stops and over 50% of his hits at High-A and Double-A went to the pull side, so it is unrealistic to expect Adell to hit much better than .260 against big-league pitching in 2019 or 2020. That said, he won't turn 20 until April 8, so he is well ahead of schedule and has plenty of time to make the necessary adjustments against upper-level pitching. He has the talent to be a 30-20 hitter pretty early in his big-league career, and could turn into a 40-20 monster if he reaches his ceiling.

There were widespread concerns about Adell’s plate discipline and aptitude for the game prior to the 2017 draft, but he quieted the doubters while showing off monster tools, and now looks like an easy top five fantasy prospect from that class. His plus raw power and plus speed were on full display in the AZL and Pioneer League, but most importantly, he made contact at an acceptable clip. He actually improved his strikeout rate from 24.2 percent to 18.9 percent after a promotion to Orem, where his .463 BABIP muddled his overall production, but the main thing we wanted to see in 2017 was a salvageable approach, and he delivered in that respect. He pulls the ball a little too much, but it’s an understandable imperfection for an 18-year-old power hitter with a lightning-quick bat. A shoulder injury limited him to DH duty in his debut, but he has all the ingredients to be a special center fielder. There may be growing pains this year in the Midwest League, but Adell has the superstar upside, so patience is encouraged.