Josh Naylor

27-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Arizona Diamondbacks

2024 Stats

AVG

.243

RBI

108

2025 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Naylor had a wonderful season of volume as he has embraced the role of hitting cleanup for the Guardians behind the likes of Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez. Naylor rarely took a day of and remained in the lineup against righties and lefties to set career highest in the run production categories. The overexposure to lefties was part of the reason for his batting average tumble as he hit .224 against lefties in 174 plate appearances but the 70 point tumble in his batting average against righties hurt Naylor more. Naylor's contact rate remains one of the better ones for a slugging first baseman, and kudos to him for not falling into the trap of changing his approach once it was obvious the changes to Progressive Field made the wind patterns more favorable to homers from lefties. Naylor did hit 17 of his 31 homers at home, which was one more than what Naylor did over the entirety of the previous two seasons at home. Repeating 30+ homers will be tough for him given his historical HR/FB rates, but another season of 600+ plate appearances will make it possible. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 5'11"

Weight 222

DOB 6/22/1997

Born Mississauga, Canada

College None

Drafted 1st Rd 2015 MIA

Headed to Arizona

1BArizona Diamondbacks

December 21, 2024

Naylor was traded from the Guardians to the Diamondbacks on Saturday in exchange for right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi and a competitive balance Round B draft pick, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.

ANALYSIS
Arizona needed a first baseman after Christian Walker signed with Houston on Friday, and Naylor should be slated to fill an everyday role for his new team. The 27-year-old tallied career-best marks with 31 home runs, 108 RBI and 84 runs over 632 plate appearances during the 2024 regular season while slashing .243/.320/.456 over 632 plate appearances. Naylor's batting average was a big drop-off from 2023, when he hit .308, but he finished as one of 14 big-leaguers with 30-plus homers and 100-plus RBI. Naylor is in his final season of team control and can be a free agent at the end of the 2025 campaign.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

115

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+20%

OPS vs RHP

2024

+12%

OPS vs RHP

2023

+4%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+67%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.695	448	43	12	62	13	.236	.310	.385
Since 2022vs Right	.833	1177	140	56	222	9	.279	.337	.496
2024vs Left	.715	174	23	6	29	1	.224	.305	.410
2024vs Right	.800	458	61	25	79	5	.251	.325	.474
2023vs Left	.821	147	16	5	22	7	.299	.347	.474
2023vs Right	.852	348	36	12	75	3	.311	.356	.495
2022vs Left	.512	127	4	1	11	5	.173	.276	.236
2022vs Right	.856	371	43	19	68	1	.283	.334	.522
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+2%

OPS on Road

2024

+22%

OPS at Home

2023

+9%

OPS on Road

2022

+24%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.787	817	98	33	138	8	.267	.337	.450
Since 2022Away	.803	808	85	35	146	14	.267	.323	.480
2024Home	.852	320	53	17	65	2	.269	.347	.505
2024Away	.699	312	31	14	43	4	.218	.292	.407
2023Home	.804	243	26	7	39	4	.309	.354	.450
2023Away	.879	252	26	10	58	6	.306	.353	.526
2022Home	.688	254	19	9	34	2	.224	.307	.381
2022Away	.854	244	28	11	45	4	.288	.332	.522
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Stat Review

How does Josh Naylor compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.55

BB Rate

9.2%

K Rate

16.6%

BABIP

.246

ISO

.213

AVG

.243

OBP

.320

SLG

.456

OPS

.776

wOBA

.336

Exit Velocity

89.9 mph

Hard Hit Rate

31.1%

Barrels/PA

6.2%

Expected BA

.257

Expected SLG

.443

Sprint Speed

20.6 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

46.8%

Line Drive %

17.1%

Fly Ball %

36.1%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Josh Naylor Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Josh Naylor See More

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29 days ago

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68 days ago

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73 days ago

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79 days ago

The NFBC's Postseason Hold'em contest kicks off at the start of the Division Series, and its scoring system leads to some unusual rankings.

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

Naylor had a career season at the plate despite missing over a month with an oblique injury. The career year was fueled by a few things Naylor had never done, such as hitting .363 with runners in scoring position and hitting .299 against left-handed pitching. He also fully leaned into the roster trend of better contact as Naylor lowered his strikeout rate for a fourth consecutive full season. He also murdered fastballs hitting .352 (.317 xBA.) The amalgamation of those skills is what allowed him to drive in 90+ runs with fewer than 20 homers, something only Naylor, Abreu, Heim, and Bohm did in 2023 and something last done by Asdrubel Cabrera in 2019. In all, Naylor plated 22% of his baserunners, which was only bested by Heim, Mullins, and Seager last season. All of this is to say this big step forward needs to have that first 500+ plate appearance offseason to offset the regression which is likely coming to his run production.

Naylor was limited to 69 games in 2021 after he underwent surgery to address a broken ankle, which briefly delayed his start to 2022. He appeared in 122 games and served as a platoon option at first base and designated hitter, and he had significant struggles against left-handed pitching with a .512 OPS in 127 plate appearances. Naylor clubbed 20 home runs total and crushed righties with a .283/.334/.522 slash line, which should at least keep him on the strong side of a platoon to open 2023. He also had solid strikeout and walk rates (16.1 percent and 7.8 percent, respectively), which provides a solid floor for his 2023 outlook, especially if he's able to improve when facing southpaws.

Naylor's 2021 season was cut short after a broken ankle in late June required season-ending surgery. Naylor is reportedly making good progress in his recovery from July 3 surgery to address fractures and ligament damage in his right leg, but he's not expected to be cleared for Opening Day. Once he completes his rehab program and is able to play a few games in the minor leagues, Naylor should eventually settle into a strong-side platoon role for the Guardians at either corner-outfield spot, first base or designated hitter. Before sustaining the season-ending leg injury, Naylor supplied a .700 OPS in 249 plate appearances for Cleveland in 2021.

Naylor broke summer camp with the Padres, but he played sparingly and almost exclusively against right-handers. He was sent to the alternate site for 10 days in August before returning. Naylor was slashing .278/.316/.417 when he was dealt to Cleveland on Aug. 31. He played more with Cleveland, but still only against righties, slashing just .230/.277/.279. While it's encouraging Naylor's season-long contact rate was 86.4%, it was mostly weak and on the ground, not conducive for a 70 raw power grade. Naylor's average exit velocity on flyballs was well below average, again not good for homers. Naylor is another case in which it's better to trust the reports and results prior to 2020 over a two-month sample in trying conditions. Cleveland's outfield is in flux, though Naylor should be given a shot at the busier side of a platoon.

Naylor made his debut May 24 and was up and down a few times before settling in for good after the deadline. Some scouts have put a 70 on Naylor's raw power, but he's still working to get to that in games. His ISO with the major-league team was .154, so about league average. He walked at a useful clip but his strikeout rate nearly doubled with the jump from Triple-A to the majors, and in total, Naylor graded out as 11% worse than league average by wRC+. As expected, the lumbering Naylor was a negative on defense, and he was below replacement level by fWAR in his 279 plate appearances. The body is a problem -- he was listed at 5-foot-11, 250 pounds at age 21 -- and that figures to only get worse with age. San Diego would like to trade Wil Myers, but that seems unlikely. There will only be room for two starters between Trent Grisham, Myers and Naylor, with Tommy Pham in the same outfield.

The biggest development for Naylor in 2018 was that most of his starts came in left field. He had previously only played first base. His stats through 170 career games at Double-A (.286/.368/.423, 19 HR, 14.0 K%, 10.7 BB%) are solid for a player who won't turn 22 until June. However, the fact he won't be a good defender anywhere, particularly in the outfield, means he will have to do a ton of damage at the plate to get playing time in the National League. The 70-grade raw power that led to him getting selected in the first round in 2015 has not consistently shown up in games, but he has been a better pure hitter than originally anticipated. Eric Hosmer signed an eight-year deal last offseason and the Padres already have a couple bat-first, below-average defenders competing for time in the outfield corners (Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe), so Naylor feels like a spare piece who may not make his big-league debut as a member of this organization.

For each of Naylor's intriguing fantasy-relevant qualities, he does something else that subtracts from his potential value. He has huge raw power, but doesn't make much of an effort to get to it consistently in games. One of pro sports' modern marvels is how well Naylor runs, given his pear-shaped physique. But he won't remain this nimble as he gets into his mid-20s. Prior to 2017, he hardly walked -- a red flag for a bad-body first baseman. However, his career-best 9.1 percent walk rate at Double-A helped lessen those concerns. At the same time, he pulled the ball a career-low 31.4 percent, which was the second lowest rate in the Texas League. For a player who is already not capitalizing on his top physical tool, this new passivity is quite troubling. Naylor could be a high-average 15-to-20 homer hitter, or a low-average 30-plus homer threat, but it's hard to see both skills converging. He has been promoted aggressively since being drafted 12th overall in 2015, and could be pushed to Triple-A before he turns 21 in late June.

Naylor was one of the more desired pieces in the infamous Andrew Cashner-Jarred Cosart deal, which nearly fell through due to alleged misinformation provided by the Padres. The Padres were able to keep Naylor, though, and he more than held his own during his first season of full-season ball. In 122 games between Low-A Greensboro and High-A Lake Elsinore, the left-handed hitting Naylor batted .264/.302/.407 with 12 home runs, 75 RBI and 11 steals. Naylor needs to work on his patience at the dish, as he only drew 25 walks in 481 at-bats. However, he also does not strike a ton, as evidenced by his 84 strikeouts over the above-referenced 122-game span in 2016. The Padres are banking on Naylor's home run totals eventually catching up to his massive raw power. He may only be starting to scratch the surface of his enormous power potential.

After being selected with the 12th pick in the 2015 draft, Naylor injected a modicum of hope into perhaps the worst farm system in baseball. The Canadian slugger slashed .327/.352/.418 with one home run in 25 games in his first taste of professional baseball. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of this small sample is the 10.5-percent K rate that he posted after just turning 18 years old in June. He was drafted because of the plus power he offers from the left side, and to show those contact skills at such an early age has to really excite fantasy owners. While a case could easily be made that Naylor is the best fantasy asset in the Marlins’ system, it is also worth noting that he is at least four or five years away from the show, so drafting him in dynasty leagues will require extreme patience.

More Fantasy News

Belts two long balls Wednesday

1BCleveland Guardians

September 18, 2024

Naylor went 2-for-4 with a pair of solo home runs and an additional run in Wednesday's 5-4 extra-inning win against the Twins.

ANALYSIS
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Hitless in return

1BCleveland Guardians

September 7, 2024

Naylor (back) went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts Friday against the Dodgers.

ANALYSIS
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Not in Wednesday's lineup

1BCleveland Guardians

Back

September 4, 2024

Naylor (back) is not in the lineup for Wednesday's contest in Kansas City.

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Exits with acute back spasm

1BCleveland Guardians

Back

September 3, 2024

Naylor left Tuesday's game versus the Royals with an acute back spasm, Joe Noga of The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.

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Homers, swipes bag in win

1BCleveland Guardians

September 2, 2024

Naylor went 2-for-4 with a double, a two-run homer and a stolen base in Monday's 4-2 win over the Royals.

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Trade to Seattle 'highly unlikely'

1BCleveland Guardians

December 19, 2024

The Mariners trading for Naylor is considered "highly unlikely," Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports.

ANALYSIS
The Mariners have poked around on many corner infield possibilities, including Naylor, but it sounds like it won't be a fit. While the Guardians have listened to trade inquiries on Naylor, Jude implies that they probably won't deal their first baseman after cutting payroll with the trade of Andres Gimenez last week.

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