Kirby Yates

Yates signed a two-year deal with an option for a third with Atlanta just before the lockout. This was a long-term play for Atlanta. Yates had Tommy John surgery in late May of 2021 and chances are we won't see him until the final third of the 2022 season. This signing was similar to what Seattle recently did with Ken Giles and made trendy when Tampa Bay reset Nathan Eovaldi's career path after his second Tommy John in the middle part of the last decade. Like Eovaldi, this is the second TJS for Yates as he had his first one in 2006. Yates' work in 2018-19 was incredible, but by the time he returns to the mound, that could be three-plus years in the rearview mirror. At best, he's an ultra-late dart throw in draft and hold or deep keeper leagues.

Yates' 2020 campaign provided another lesson in the volatility of closers and the riskiness of chasing saves early in fantasy drafts. After ascending to stardom in 2019, Yates was a consensus top-three closer heading into last season. Instead of anchoring fantasy managers' relief corps, however, the Hawaii native lasted all of six outings before going down for the year with an elbow injury. Yates underwent surgery in August to remove two bone chips from his elbow. The sample size on the field is too small to gather any meaningful data from, but there is at least some reason for optimism in knowing that Yates was still able to miss bats (32.0 K%) during his limited time on the mound and that the elbow has been cleaned up. He's worth a look based on his 2018-19 dominance, especially after landing in Toronto where Yates is the clear No. 1 option.

Yates did in 2019 what only four other relievers have done this decade: save at least 40 games while striking out at least 100 batters, joining Edwin Diaz, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel and Greg Holland. The bad news? Only Jansen and Kimbrel did it in consecutive years. As great as Diaz was in 2018, he didn't come close to doing it again in 2019, and that should be fresh in your mind as you figure out how to draft Yates in 2020. He doesn't have the electric fastball, but how he tunnels it with his amazing splitter makes both pitches harmonize in a wonderful duet. He pitched with elite skills in 2018 without the full-time closer role, but had both in 2019. He is no longer a bargain and will cost you full freight to add to your roster. Not bad for a reliever who was designated for assignment by the Rays, Yankees and Angels before striking gold in San Diego. The splitter completely turned around his career.

Yates was already on his way to a career year when the Padres dealt Brad Hand at the trade deadline, and he deservedly took over as the closer after that. He was not as effective after the All-Star break as he was before, but still set career bests across the board. A 31-year-old righty, Yates relies on a 95-mph fastball to get ahead in the count and gets whiffs with his splitter and hard slider. He will open 2019 in the same role he finished last year, but could wind up on the trade block himself if the Padres can't keep pace in the NL West, given his age and the fact he is only under team control for two more seasons. Chances are, he would not work as a closer if he were dealt to a contender. He was getting drafted as a top-15 reliever on average in December, with drafters putting a lot of faith in a player with just 14 career saves. That aggression is somewhat understandable given his dominance last season and the general lack of trustworthy closers.

The Padres claimed Yates off waivers after he was designated for assignment by the Angels in April. He proceeded to make 61 appearances for San Diego last season, pushing his strikeout rate to a gaudy 38.5 percent while providing decent ratios (3.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). An extreme flyball pitcher, Yates continues to give up too many home runs, and his career 1.81 HR/9 is showing no signs of improving. Mixing a mid-90s fastball, slider and changeup, Yates' ability to miss bats appears to be sustainable, but he needs to cut back on the number of mistakes he makes with his slider. He did not allow a hit all season with his changeup, which generated whiffs at an excellent clip (26.6 percent), and gives him a weapon that could allow him to become more effective at getting lefties out. It's not out of the question to think that he could be given a chance at closing in San Diego at some point if Brad Hand were to get traded.

Yates' ability to strike batters out is unquestionable, but the other facets of pitching got him traded twice over the offseason. The 29-year-old eventually landed in the Yankees organization, where he initially broke camp with the major league bullpen. However, he was shipped back to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in late June after posting a paltry 5.72 ERA and 4.4 BB/9 across 26.2 innings pitched. He dominated the minor league competition, but his return to the big leagues didn't provide any more success, as he sported a 4.09 ERA and a 4.9 BB/9 over 11 innings scattered across the final two months of the season. The right-hander's strikeout rate was impeccable as always (10.9 K/9), but his lack of control and propensity to give up home runs doesn't bode well going forward. He was claimed off waivers by the Angels in October, so he could garner a low-leverage role in their relatively weak relief corps. That being said, until he can harness his control, Yates is unlikely to be consistently entrusted with high-leverage situations.

Yates made the Rays’ Opening Day roster thanks to a strong spring training in which he registered a 2.45 ERA and 11:3 K/BB ratio in 11 innings. His regular season didn’t go as well. The 28-year-old saw playing time in four different months and his 4.15 ERA in April was easily his best mark in any individual month. He eventually finished with a brutal 7.97 ERA in 20.1 innings, with most of his time coming after a September callup. At his best, Yates is an excellent strikeout pitcher, evidenced by 11.9 K/9 in the minors and at his worst he deals with serious command issues, with a 4.2 BB/9. He also missed significant time in May and June due to a chest injury, which likely didn’t feel great even after he returned. He’ll have to battle to secure a role with the Yankees during spring training after coming over in a January trade, but even if he makes the team, he unlikely to work into a fantasy-relevant role.

The undersized reliever had a nice debut for the Rays in 2014. He struck out 27 percent of the batters he faced and held opposing batters to a .241 average. Over the past two seasons at Triple-A Durham, Yates served as the team’s closer and struck out 128 batters and permitted just 48 hits in 86.2 innings. Despite the big numbers, Yates does not have top-shelf stuff and relies more on sequencing and a deceptive delivery for his effectiveness. He should work the middle innings of relief so he could vulture some wins while helping with strikeouts in deep AL-only leagues.