Luis Severino

30-Year-Old PitcherSP

Free Agent

2024 Stats

W-L

11-7

ERA

3.91

WHIP

1.24

161

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

Hopes were high for Severino as he was another year removed from Tommy John surgery and he pitched very well in 2022, albeit only 89.1 innings after losing over two months with a lat injury. Things got off to an ominous start as he was felled by another lat injury in the spring. For the second time in a year, what was expected to be a quick recovery lingered, delaying Severino's 2023 debut until late May. He pitched well initially, but then things fell apart. On several occasions, Severino's starting role was in jeopardy, but the Yankees were forced to keep him in their injury-depleted rotation. His season mercifully ended in early September with a high-grade oblique strain. Severino's 6.65 ERA was pegged as unlucky by the associated 4.83 xFIP and 4.78 SIERA but the estimators are still well above league average. Severino's velocity was at his usual level, but his changeup wasn't nearly as effective, allowing batters to sit on, and crush his four-seam fastball. This seems correctable, but durability remains an issue. He signed with the Mets on a one-year, $13 million deal, which is about as good of a landing spot as fantasy managers could have hoped for. New York is a competitive team with a spacious home park and both he and the team will be highly incentivized to make this season a success. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Dynasty

From Preseason

#270

ADP

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man No

Height 6'0"

Weight 195

DOB 2/20/1994

Drafted 2012

Rejecting qualifying offer

PFree Agent

November 19, 2024

Severino has rejected the Mets' one-year, $21.05 million qualifying offer, Tim Healey of Newsday reports.

ANALYSIS
Severino might not be able to match the $21.05 average annual value of the qualifying offer on a multi-year contract, but he should still do pretty well in free agency. The Mets are interested in bringing the right-hander back, but if they're unable to they will net a draft pick when Severino signs elsewhere. Severino, who turns 31 in February, held a 3.91 ERA and 161:60 K:BB over 182 innings across 31 regular-season starts for the Mets in 2024.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Luis Severino generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Luis Severino generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-17%

BAA vs RHP

2024

-20%

BAA vs RHP

2023

-19%

BAA vs RHP

2022

-1%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.269	764	144	57	187	31	3	35
Since 2022vs Right	.224	819	208	67	164	30	1	25
2024vs Left	.269	388	76	30	94	10	1	16
2024vs Right	.216	373	85	30	72	13	1	7
2023vs Left	.333	202	34	17	61	14	2	11
2023vs Right	.271	215	45	17	52	8	0	12
2022vs Left	.196	174	34	10	32	7	0	8
2022vs Right	.195	231	78	20	40	9	0	6
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-36%

ERA at Home

2024

-41%

ERA at Home

2023

-40%

ERA at Home

2022

-2%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	3.42	1.19	189.2	14	5	0	8.3	2.9	1.3
Since 2022Away	5.34	1.36	183.2	8	13	0	8.7	3.1	1.6
2024Home	2.96	1.19	97.1	7	2	0	7.2	3.1	0.8
2024Away	5.00	1.30	84.2	4	5	0	8.8	2.8	1.5
2023Home	4.87	1.33	40.2	3	2	0	7.5	3.1	2.2
2023Away	8.14	1.91	48.2	1	6	0	8.3	3.7	2.4
2022Home	3.14	1.06	51.2	4	1	0	11.0	2.3	1.4
2022Away	3.22	0.93	50.1	3	2	0	8.8	3.0	1.1
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Stat Review

How does Luis Severino compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

2.68

K/9

8.0

BB/9

3.0

HR/9

1.1

Fastball

96.0 mph

ERA

3.91

WHIP

1.24

BABIP

.289

GB/FB

1.37

Left On Base

72.2%

Exit Velocity

80.9 mph

Barrels/BBE

3.0%

Spin Rate

2198 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

19.8%

Swinging Strike

10.1%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Severino experienced arm soreness so the Yankees initially took it easy on the Tommy John recoveree, but it wasn't long before Severino was up to speed. He posted a 3.45 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 95 punchouts in 86 innings through July 13, but then a lat injury sent Severino to the 60-day IL. He returned for three starts in September, registering a 1.69 ERA and .63 WHIP with 17 strikeouts in 16 frames. Including rehab and playoffs, Severino logged 123.1 innings, so he shouldn't be under too much of a restriction, likely nothing more than a few maintenance days. Severino's 27.7% strikeout rate was lower than pre-TJS while his 7.4% walk rate was a little high, as was his home run rate. His 96.3-mph fastball was down a tick, but when he came back in September, Severino was throwing 97-98 mph. There is risk, but Severino can post SP1 numbers, albeit with fewer innings, drafted much later than the staff anchors.

Severino returned to MLB game action 18 months and three weeks after undergoing Tommy John surgery at the end of February in 2020. He made five appearances out of the Yankees' bullpen over the final 10 days of the regular season and into the postseason, giving up one earned run on three hits and two walks while striking out nine in 7.1 innings. While he looked like the same guy on the mound, Severino's average velocity on his four-seamer was 95.4 mph, down from averages of 97.8 mph in 2018 and 96.0 mph in 2019. His slider was also down a couple ticks from the 88 mph it averaged from 2016 through 2018. It's possible he could gain a tick of velocity as he gets even further removed from the surgery, and even if everything remains where it was in 2021, Severino still has premium stuff. Heading into his age-28 season, the biggest concern with the 6-foot-2 righty is quantity of innings. A healthy Severino is the Yankees' second-best starter, so he should be a part of the rotation, but he will likely have some starts skipped and probably won't go much more than five or six innings, even when he's dealing.

Dreams of a Gerrit Cole-Severino 1-2 punch atop the Yankees' rotation were shattered last February when Severino was diagnosed with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. It was a brutal blow for the young right-hander, who made only three regular-season appearances in 2019 due to lat and shoulder issues. Prior to the run of injuries, Severino was emerging as one of the game's most promising hurlers, winning 33 games and registering a 3.18 ERA between 2017 and 2018. Plenty of pitchers have gone on to find success after TJ surgery, so there's no reason to rule out a return to form for Severino, though there's bound to be some rust -- and a strict innings limit -- upon his eventual return. Severino isn't expected to be ready to rejoin the rotation until well after the start of the regular season, further capping his 2021 value. He may not be a viable option in fantasy leagues until 2022.

Simply put, Severino is one of the best pitchers in MLB. The question heading into 2020 is, are the lat and shoulder issues that cost him all but three regular-season starts behind him? Initially diagnosed with a sore rotator cuff early in spring training, Severino was later revealed to have also suffered a Grade 2 lat strain which is what was responsible for the lengthy absence. When Severino returned, his velocity was just a tick below normal, offering some optimism for a full recovery. Severino is unfairly penalized for his home venue. Yankee Stadium is plus for homers but suppresses runs. This helps explain his success in the Bronx where his career ERA and WHIP are a tad better than on the road. Most will want to wait until the spring before investing, creating a buying opportunity in early drafts. However, even if healthy, Severino's workload will likely be lower than other aces.

Severino had an amazing season considering he makes his home starts in Williamsport Northeast. Most of his metrics were a carbon copy of his 2017 breakout season. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in 19 starts and struck out eight or more hitters in 13 starts. All kidding aside about his home ballpark, Sevvy was a monster at home, notching a 2.74 ERA while holding the opposition to a .217/.270/.337 line over 92 innings. The road games were where he was more mortal, as he had a 3.99 ERA and allowed a .255/.303/.416 line over 99 innings away from Yankee Stadium. It looked as if he would cruise to a Cy Young Award at the break, going into it with a 2.31 ERA and 14 wins. Severino won five games in the second half with a 5.57 ERA. He wasn't that bad (3.37 FIP), but he was giving up significantly more line drives while generating fewer groundballs. On top of that, he injured his shoulder warming up for his first spring training game and is expected to start the season on the injured list.

A year later than expected, Severino proved that the flashes he showed as a rookie in the second half of 2015 were indicative of his upside. While Masahiro Tanaka scuffled in the first half, Severino thrived, mixing his arsenal of a high-90s fastball, slider and improved changeup effectively to become one of the best starters in the American League. He threw more pitches in the strike zone than ever before (49.3 percent), held hitters to a lower contact rate on those pitches (82.3 percent), and made hitters chase pitches outside the zone at the highest rate of his career (31.3 percent). Home runs are still his greatest weakness, and he allowed 15 in 97 innings at Yankee Stadium compared to six in 96.1 innings on the road, but as long as he keeps his walk rate (2.4 BB/9) in check, the long balls are unlikely to derail him. Severino will likely be treated as a top-10 starting pitcher in most draft rooms for 2018, but the increased price and hype appear to be warranted.

Severino had a breakout stint as a 21-year-old in 2015, working to a 2.89 ERA over 11 starts and looking poised to join the top of the rotation. Though there were signs that he might take a bit of a step back -- a 4.44 FIP, struggles with the long ball, and an unsustainably high strand rate of 83.3 percent -- few could have predicted how disastrous the 2016 campaign would be. Through seven starts, he was 0-6 with a 7.46 ERA and had allowed eight home runs in just 35 innings, leading to a demotion to the minors to straighten things out. Severino joined the bullpen after coming back up to the majors, where he was terrific to the tune of a 0.39 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. Despite his success in the bullpen, the Yankees will likely try again with the young righty as a starter in 2017, though he proved too unreliable last season for owners to confidently count on him out of the gate. As a low-risk gamble, however, he could pay off handsomely.

The Yankees bypassed the starting pitching trade market in July, instead declaring Severino the solution to their problems. They were right and Severino was dominant down the stretch. There are some issues to iron out, including the home runs, but he showed an impressive three-pitch mix that was effective against both righties and lefties. His fastball carries him which is often the case when a guy throws 95-96 mph on average. He gets both swings-and-misses and groundballs at a good clip with it, but his changeup is an above-average strikeout weapon and an elite groundball inducer (62%). The slider is the weakest of the three, but still showed flashes of success. With 162 combined innings in 2015, Severino should have few, if any, innings restrictions in 2016. He's set to join Masahiro Tanaka atop the Yankees' rotation and could be a star in the making.

No pitcher in the minor leagues enhanced their stock as much as Severino during the 2014 season. He climbed two full levels, posting a 127:27 K:BB ratio and a 2.46 ERA in 113.1 innings between three stops, thanks to a mid-90s heater and a slider and changeup that work well off said fastball. Severino, who finished the season as a 20-year-old at Double-A Trenton, has never failed at a level, but he has never been truly tested. In 24 starts last season, he gave up more than three earned runs on just one occasion. This is what makes his upcoming season so intriguing. Despite being just six feet tall, he weighs almost 200 pounds, so he should be able to handle a full season. He also happens to pitch in a system where advanced starting pitching will be pushed aggressively, as the Yankees' starting rotation is chock-full of injury concerns and below-average options. Assuming he was unowned going into last season, he should be a top-5 pick in dynasty drafts in 2015.

More Fantasy News

Unlikely to accept qualifying offer

PFree Agent

November 16, 2024

Will Sammon of The Athletic relays that Severino is unlikely to accept the Mets' $21.05 million qualifying offer.