Matt Olson

30-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Atlanta Braves

2024 Stats

AVG

.247

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

A marriage made in baseball heaven, Olson has done nothing but rake since Atlanta acquired him from Oakland in March of 2022. He turned it up to an even greater level in 2023, his second year with the organization, pacing all major-league hitters in home runs (54) and RBI (139) while registering the fourth-highest OPS in the bigs at .993. He finished in the 99th percentile in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate and ranked in the 97th percentile in xSLG, all en route to a fourth-place finish for NL MVP. Olson enters his age-30 season firing on all cylinders and surrounded by one of the best supporting casts you can find. He again has a chance to lead the majors in homers and should feast on RBI opportunities as the locked-in cleanup man for the reigning National League East champions. With first base lacking some of the depth it had a decade ago, it's probably worth reaching for Olson in the opening rounds of drafts this spring. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Rank

Dynasty

From Preseason

#32

ADP

League Majors

Bats L

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'5"

Weight 225

DOB 3/29/1994

Born Atlanta, GA

College None

Drafted 2012 OAK

Homers twice in rout

1BAtlanta Braves

September 19, 2024

Olson went 2-for-4 with a pair of home runs, four total RBI and three total runs scored in Thursday's 15-3 win over Cincinnati.

ANALYSIS
Olson got the scoring started with a solo shot off Julian Aguiar in the second inning before adding a three-run homer in the fifth, extending Atlanta's lead to 8-1. While it's been a down year overall for Olson, he's been on fire down the stretch, going 15-for-36 (.417) with a pair of home runs and 15 RBI in his last 10 games. The 30-year-old first baseman has boosted his slash line to .243/.326/.459 with 28 homers, 94 RBI and 76 runs scored across 647 plate appearances this season.

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Batting Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

114

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+12%

OPS vs RHP

2024

+8%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+33%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+10%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.793	582	71	27	96	0	.250	.321	.472
Since 2022vs Right	.889	1522	220	90	244	1	.259	.360	.529
2024vs Left	.835	187	27	10	30	0	.263	.321	.515
2024vs Right	.771	498	51	19	68	0	.240	.337	.434
2023vs Left	.798	182	23	10	30	0	.252	.308	.491
2023vs Right	1.061	538	104	44	109	1	.294	.416	.645
2022vs Left	.749	213	21	7	36	0	.235	.333	.415
2022vs Right	.824	486	65	27	67	0	.242	.321	.503
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+1%

OPS on Road

2024

+12%

OPS on Road

2023

+11%

OPS at Home

2022

+4%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.859	1020	137	53	157	1	.259	.352	.507
Since 2022Away	.865	1084	154	64	183	0	.255	.347	.518
2024Home	.745	330	33	9	37	0	.245	.324	.421
2024Away	.831	355	45	20	61	0	.248	.341	.490
2023Home	1.046	348	60	28	73	1	.301	.405	.640
2023Away	.943	372	67	26	66	0	.266	.374	.570
2022Home	.784	342	44	16	47	0	.230	.325	.459
2022Away	.819	357	42	18	56	0	.250	.325	.494
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Stat Review

How does Matt Olson compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.42

BB Rate

10.4%

K Rate

24.8%

BABIP

.293

ISO

.210

AVG

.247

OBP

.333

SLG

.457

OPS

.790

wOBA

.344

Exit Velocity

91.5 mph

Hard Hit Rate

35.6%

Barrels/PA

7.9%

Expected BA

.247

Expected SLG

.448

Sprint Speed

21.2 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

35.9%

Line Drive %

21.1%

Fly Ball %

43.0%

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

Olson handled the impossible task of replacing a face of a franchise as best he could, but the 2022 results were still a fantasy disappointment. Olson was coming off a career year in a bad ballpark with a lesser lineup, so the relocation to Atlanta and its roster was expected to be more of a boon for Olson, yet the performance was closer to 2019 than it was 2021. In hindsight, we should have looked at the risks of changing leagues, replacing Freeman and getting a new contract as a Bermuda Triangle of risks with the slugger, as that is how the season played out. He took advantage of the lineup to continue to drive in runs, and the 34 homers, with the baseball manufacturing issues, were still solid, but he gave back the strikeout gains from 2021, going back to his pre-2020 levels as he worked to adjust to a different league. The 2023 season should allow him to resume the trajectory of 2021 with more familiarity with the National League. That said, how he handles non-fastballs makes or breaks his batting average, and off-speed stuff really ate him up in 2022 (.224 avg., 26 percent Whiff rate) over 2021 (.267 avg., 18 percent whiff rate).

As expected, Olson was traded out of Oakland after the lockout ended. This is what the A's do. He immediately signed a long-term deal with Atlanta after the trade and will replace franchise icon Freddie Freeman at first base. Those are impossible shoes to fill, but Olson did exceedingly well for himself in 2021, bashing 39 homers and finishing fifth in the American League in wRC+ behind only Vladimir Guerrero, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Kyle Tucker. Amazingly, Olson nearly cut his strikeout rate in half (31.4 K% in 2020, 16.8% last season), fueling a big bounce-back after Olson finished below the Mendoza Line during the shortened 2020 season. Olson is now in a significantly friendlier park to hit in, which should in theory help soften the regression that comes with likely giveback in his K-rate. His 115.3 mph maxEV ranked in the top 5% of the league last season, so if you need to make up some ground in the power department early on in your draft, Olson makes a lot of sense.

Expectations were high for Olson after he launched 36 homers while adding 20 points to his batting average in 2019. He played in all 60 games during the shortened 2020 season but was unable to build on his success at the plate as his average sank to .195. Olson swung at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone (on a per-pitch basis), but his contact rate on pitches in the zone fell off. Thanks in large part to an increased walk rate (13.9%), he still managed to finish above league average by wRC+ (103) despite a bottom-six BA among qualified hitters. Olson may have been a bit too patient and could probably stand to regain some of his aggressiveness in the batter's box -- he struggled in a major way when behind in the count last season. Either way, positive regression should steer Olson to a solid landing in 2021. The power upside is still there for Olson to break out of the pack at first base.

Olson missed time early with a hamate injury, yet still came back to hit a career-best 36 homers in 127 games last year in a pitcher's ballpark. The dude simply crushes baseballs as all of his Statcast batted-ball data was in the 90th percentile or higher, except his expected batting average. He absolutely mashes righties (.288/.380/.577 last year), but has also been at least league average against lefties in his career. The flyball and pull-heavy approach works for him as the hard contact allows him to hit through and over the shifts put in his way. He is already a top-10 first baseman and could be a top-3 first baseman if he can avoid the injury bug in 2020. He has 40-homer potential even if the baseball reverts back to its 2018 characteristics; he'll hit 50 if the 2019 regular season baseball sticks around. Invest in full in this first baseman, and you will get your money's worth.

Olson burst onto the scene in 2017, blasting 24 homers in 59 games. Hitting just two doubles in that span was a warning Olson would be hard-pressed to maintain that pace. Sure enough, his extra-base hit ratio normalized as he swatted 29 long balls with 33 two-baggers last year, a more realistic baseline expectation. Olson made strides with his plate skills, walking a tick more while shaving his K% down a few points to 24.7%. His hard contact ranked sixth on the Statcast exit velocity leaderboard along with a respectable 42nd-place finish in barrel rate. Olson was seen as a below-average defender as a prospect, but has improved in that regard. Entering just his age-25 campaign, he is young enough to improve his contact and his ability to hit southpaws (45 of his 53 career blasts have come off right-handed pitching). By playing all 162 games last season, Olson displayed durability, adding to his growing resume.

A lot was made of the power displays exhibited by Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, but if you prorate Olson's numbers over a full season, we're looking at something north of 60 homers. Of course, he only played 59 games, so Olson would have been hard pressed to keep hitting a homer every nine plate appearances in a full campaign (Stanton was one per 11.7 PA while Judge was one per 13 PA). Further, Olson's HR/FB was a ridiculous 41.4 percent. There have been only four players in history with a seasonal mark over 35 percent, two of which were Stanton and Judge in 2017. Olson's power earned him the full-time first base spot, enabling the Athletics to deal Ryon Healy. When the dust settles, the lefty-swinging slugger will be another high-power, high-strikeout hitter with a risky batting average. There's a chance he gets exposed versus southpaws over a full season.

Regardless of their flaws, young left-handed bats with an enticing power tool can establish their own market. Olson (6-foot-5, 230 pounds) has proven as much in his early professional career, with 37 home runs at High-A Stockton and 17 at each of his two stops since. Throughout his farm work, he's kept an equally attractive 15.2 percent walk rate, but Olson's prospect appeal has slipped as he's advanced closer to the big leagues. The A's have avenues at first base, outfield and designated hitter to test the potential middle-of-the-order stick. Olson turns 23 in March, though, and like many hackers, he has holes in his swing. His strikeout rate has hovered in the 23-24 percent range in his time at Double-A Midland and Triple-A Nashville, and logic doesn't say to expect immediate improvement in the big leagues as he adjusts to top-level pitching.

Olson moved up to Double-A in 2015 and took a step back from his big 2014, when he had 37 home runs and 111 RBI with a .281 ISO. Olson hit .249 with 17 home runs in his first full season in Double-A and saw his ISO drop to .189. The good news is that his impressive walk rate stayed stable at 17.9 percent even though his strikeout rate did bump up a touch to 23.8 percent (21.6 percent in 2014). Olson is 22, and while he is still a top-five prospect in the organization, his bit of a downturn upon seeing Double-A pitching likely ended any chance of his starting 2016 with the A's. He has a chance to make it up to the majors in the second half of 2016 and could be the A's starting first baseman (or right fielder if Josh Reddick is moved) to begin 2017.

Olson had a monster 2014 in the power department at High-A Stockton, leading all A's minor leaguers with 37 homers and 97 RBI over 512 at-bats. The 20-year-old also had a nice boost in his batting average, hitting .262 (along with a huge .947 OPS) after hitting merely .225 in 2013. In addition, he added a lot of walks to his resume, walking 45 more times than he did in 2013. The A's sent Olson to the Arizona Fall League after the season to give him a look against other top prospects, but his stint there was cut short by a shoulder injury, suffered in a collision at first base. He's expected to be ready for the start of spring training, and Olson will likely begin the season as the starting first baseman in Double-A, with a legitimate chance to join the A's in 2016.

Olson spent the 2013 season at Low-A Beloit and while the power numbers were impressive (23 homers and 93 RBI), Olson struggled to make contact, hitting only .225 and striking out 148 times. The 19-year-old possesses the power upside from the left side of the plate that teams drool over, but he will look to improve upon his contact in High-A in 2014. If he's able to cut back on the whiffs, Olson could make a significant push up the prospect charts as he ascends the Oakland system.

More Fantasy News

Drives in four in win

1BAtlanta Braves

September 14, 2024

Olson went 2-for-5 with two doubles, four RBI and one run scored in Saturday's 10-1 win over the Dodgers.