Max Muncy

Muncy's fantastic 2021 season ended with the news of his elbow not healing as expected and his draft value was diminished by the looming concerns Muncy may need TJ surgery and miss the 2023 season. He ended up playing nearly full-time and came close to matching his 2021 plate appearances total, but there was a noticeable decline in his production as he struggled at the plate with an extreme flyball (63%) and pull (49%) approach at the plate. The new shift rules can fix some of the concerns, but not if he continues to hit flyballs at that rate. The biggest difference between the two seasons was how Muncy handled the fastball: he hit .307 and slugged .693 off fastballs in 2021 but those numbers dramatically declined to .196 and .408 respectively in 2022 and the league fed him a steady diet of fastballs. He and the club worked out a two-year extension in August with a club option in the second year so if the Dodgers are willing to invest in his talents again, maybe we should feel comfortable giving him another chance. After all, only he, Pete Alonso, and Mike Trout have as many as three seasons of 35+ homers over the past five seasons.

After a hiccup in 2020, Muncy just continued to perform as he always does, hitting near a .250 average with 35 homers. He was one of several hitters who struggled in the shortened 2020 season (.720 OPS). Most of his struggles can be tied to a low .203 BABIP. It's not the first time's he's struggled with that issue, nor will it be the last. This past season, he posted a .200 BABIP over the last two months. Muncy did, however, show some nice skill changes. His K% dropped for the fourth straight season, to 20.3% from a high of approximately 27%. His 112 mph maxEV and 91 mph avgEV were career highs. While he played in a career-high 144 games, he missed time with injuries to his oblique (IL stint), ankle, side, shoulder and back, and worse yet, he revealed in late November that he's not healing as anticipated from a torn UCL. His level of participation in spring training should be monitored closely. If healthy, he's a power bat who should rack up a decent number of runs and RBI hitting in the middle of the Dodgers' potent lineup.

Muncy struggled to find a rhythm at the plate last season, finishing with a disappointing .192/.331/.389 slash line. It's tempting to note his league-worst .203 BABIP and attribute the low batting average to bad luck, but that would be oversimplifying things. In reality, the surest way to rack up base hits is with plenty of line drives, and Muncy's 13.8 LD% was the second-lowest mark in the league. That was a far cry from 2019 and he was still in the 81st percentile in barrel rate, so it's reasonable to expect some movement toward the norm -- and a consequent jump in average -- this season. The power is still present, and Muncy's proven willingness to take a walk -- his 15.8 BB% since 2018 ranks fifth among qualified batters -- gives him extra value in fantasy leagues that use OBP. Factor in Muncy's multi-position eligibility (1B, 2B, 3B) as a reason to nab him if he slips too far down 2021 draft boards.

Let's take a moment to appreciate Muncy for a second. We all know the story about him being DFA'd by Oakland and grabbed by the Dodgers and his breakout in 2018. Six weeks into 2019, Muncy was hitting .242 with five HR and 18 RBI, and looked like a bust for fantasy owners. He went on to hit .253 with a .383 OBP, 30 HR, 90 runs and 80 RBI the rest of the way. In the process, he equaled his HR total from 2018 and obliterated his runs and RBI. Yes, he wasn't as good as 2018 overall, but he was still darn good and those who held true despite the slow start were handsomely rewarded. The skills over the past two years have been rather stable, but Muncy did see his flyball rate come down in 2019. Muncy has more value in OBP leagues as the batting average has a low ceiling with the strikeouts, but it certainly hasn't cut into his run production. The added bonus is three-position eligibility in 2020 (2B, 3B and 1B).

In this space last year...wait, we didn't write an outlook for Muncy in 2018. He failed to crack the major leagues in 2017 and instead spent the entirety of the season at Triple-A. After signing a minor-league contract with the Dodgers, he was assigned to minor-league camp March 12. Muncy got the call to Los Angeles on April 17 and went on to post the fifth-best wRC+ among 183 players with at least 450 plate appearances. He crushed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .601 SLG and .334 ISO while walking at a robust 16.4% clip overall. Muncy did strike out 27.2% of the time and hit just .185 against breaking pitches according to Brooks Baseball, but in the end, he was a top-10 fantasy first baseman. It's tough to forecast anything close to a full repeat, but Muncy is at least locked into a platoon role and there will be more doubters than believers, creating a possible buying opportunity for those contrarians out there.

Muncy is the prototypical "Moneyball" product: There's not a lot of hype behind him, but man, can he take walks. Last season at Triple-A Nashville, the 26-year-old walked 13.1 percent of the time and bumped that figure up to 15 percent during his scattered appearances in the big leagues. Even with that bright spot, Muncy still has plenty of blemishes keeping him from garnering regular playing time in Oakland. He strikes out too much, as his strikeout rate hovered around 20 percent both in the minors and in the majors, and he doesn't have the power to make up for it (.071 ISO in the majors). His ability to play all over the infield and the corner outfield spots could help him land a reserve utility role with the big league club, but with bigger prospects knocking on the door to the majors, it will be tough for Muncy to climb much higher than that.

A rash of early season injuries gave Muncy a chance to make his Major League debut, but he did not do much with it, slashing .206/.268/.392 with three homers in 102 at-bats. Muncy had a breakout minor league season in 2013 when he hit 25 bombs with 100 RBI between Single-A and Double-A, but backed that season up with only seven homers in 435 Double-A at-bats in 2014. Muncy does exhibit a solid feel for the strike zone and his high walk numbers have enabled him to post a career .378 OPS across four minor League seasons. The A's farm system is not stacked overall, but one of their strengths is at corner infield which is not a great sign for Muncy's long-term prospects. After two years of his power slipping following the 2013 breakout, Muncy's star is dwindling, but the 25-year-old will begin the year at Triple-A with a chance to appear in Oakland again if injuries strike before their bigger corner prospects are ready.