Tyler O'Neill

29-Year-Old OutfielderOF

Baltimore Orioles

2024 Stats

AVG

.241

RBI

2025 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

There was perhaps no more obvious change of scenery candidate last offseason than O'Neill, and he got to wipe the slate clean when the Cardinals traded him to the Red Sox in December. The hulking outfielder went on to slug 31 home runs, with much of that damage coming against left-handed pitching (he slashed .313/.430/.750 versus southpaws). Among players with at least 450 plate appearances, only Zack Gelof had a worse strikeout rate than O'Neill's 33.6 percent mark. However, he did his best to counterbalance that with a career-high 11.6 percent walk rate. O'Neill made three different trips to the injured list and will remain a good bet to miss time again in 2025, but he was able to avoid any long-term absences in 2024. The Orioles signed O'Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million deal just weeks after announcing they were moving in their right field fences. Baltimore has the depth to give O'Neill strategic off days against tough righties, but he should hit pretty regularly in the middle of a strong lineup. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 5'11"

Weight 205

DOB 6/22/1995

Drafted 3rd Rd 2013

Latches on with O's

OFBaltimore Orioles

December 7, 2024

O'Neill signed a three-year, $49.5 million contract with the Orioles on Saturday, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.

ANALYSIS
O'Neill enjoyed a resurgent campaign after moving to Boston in 2024, slashing .241/.336/.511 with 31 home runs and 61 RBI across 473 regular-season plate appearances. Much of the 29-year-old's success came versus southpaws, against whom he posted a 1.179 OPS in 156 trips to the plate. Now in Baltimore, O'Neill could slot in primarily at DH given his limited range and injury history while occasionally taking over in the corner outfield for Colton Cowser or Heston Kjerstad against left-handed starters.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+42%

OPS vs LHP

2024

+70%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+16%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+17%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.974	326	54	23	47	8	.276	.390	.585
Since 2022vs Right	.684	796	103	31	93	15	.218	.293	.391
2024vs Left	1.179	156	26	16	29	1	.313	.429	.750
2024vs Right	.693	317	48	15	32	3	.208	.290	.403
2023vs Left	.794	79	10	3	5	3	.227	.354	.439
2023vs Right	.684	187	17	6	16	2	.233	.294	.390
2022vs Left	.788	91	18	4	13	4	.256	.352	.436
2022vs Right	.673	292	38	10	45	10	.219	.295	.379
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+2%

OPS on Road

2024

+9%

OPS on Road

2023

+16%

OPS at Home

2022

+6%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.756	543	73	28	81	8	.225	.311	.445
Since 2022Away	.774	579	84	26	59	15	.243	.330	.444
2024Home	.809	229	33	16	39	0	.222	.301	.507
2024Away	.883	244	41	15	22	4	.260	.369	.514
2023Home	.768	133	14	6	10	2	.231	.323	.444
2023Away	.664	133	13	3	11	3	.231	.301	.364
2022Home	.677	181	26	6	32	6	.224	.315	.362
2022Away	.720	202	30	8	26	8	.231	.302	.418
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Stat Review

How does Tyler O'Neill compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.33

BB Rate

11.2%

K Rate

33.6%

BABIP

.305

ISO

.270

AVG

.241

OBP

.336

SLG

.511

OPS

.847

wOBA

.365

Exit Velocity

90.9 mph

Hard Hit Rate

34.3%

Barrels/PA

9.3%

Expected BA

.213

Expected SLG

.480

Sprint Speed

23.1 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

35.8%

Line Drive %

17.3%

Fly Ball %

46.9%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Tyler O'Neill Prospect Ranking History

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Tyler O'Neill See More

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

After being limited to 96 games in 2022, O'Neill's stated goal last offseason was to tailor his workouts to prevent future injury. It didn't work, as O'Neill played just 72 contests in 2023 due to back, knee and foot problems. When on the field, the 28-year-old's production sagged to just a .715 OPS and nine homers in 266 plate appearances. O'Neill's plate discipline actually trended in a positive direction for the second straight year, but his quality of contact also dropped off again so perhaps he's best off returning to the ultra aggressiveness he displayed during his breakout 2021 campaign. He was traded to Boston this offseason, which not only signals a more secure role but a major upgrade in home park factors. Durability remains a significant concern, but he should produce for fantasy managers while healthy.

After parlaying a more aggressive approach the prior year into his best season, O'Neill reverted to exhibiting more selectivity and his production suffered. Maybe it was injury-related as O'Neill dealt with shoulder, hamstring and leg issues over the course of the season. His strikeout rate decreased to a career-low 26.9%, but his average exit velocity dipped 3.2 mph and the ever-important average exit velocity on fly balls fell 4.1 mph. The litany of injuries limited O'Neill to just 96 games, though they didn't inhibit running as O'Neill stole 14 bases, one fewer than 2021 in 42 fewer games. Getting a read on O'Neill is difficult since he's displayed two different skill sets, perhaps due to injuries. As such, O'Neill remains a high-risk, high-reward option, with both health and performance questions. O'Neill's power/speed potential is enticing, but it's dangerous to chase.

In 2020, O'Neill improved selectivity, but he hit the ball with less authority. Last season, he regained some aggressiveness, establishing a new career best with 94th percentile average exit velocity and 93rd percentile hard-hit rate. The improvement began in 2020 when he chased fewer sliders and curves while increasing contact on both. Last season, he kept this, adding a 5-mph jump in average exit velocity on breakers. O'Neill's plate skills are still suspect, but he found a combination allowing him to drive the ball with pitch recognition the key. This bodes well for continued growth as O'Neill's athleticism just needed improved baseball sense. Health is an issue as O'Neill lost time with groin, finger, and back issues, though nothing appears chronic. O'Neill's defense remained a plus. Repeating last season's rate stats will be a challenge, but more playing time should keep counting stats bountiful.

O'Neill is an enigma. Physically, he screams athlete. He has a lot of raw power and speed to spare and looks like he could play slot receiver in the NFL. Those tools have yet to translate into much on the stat sheet as through 450 career PA; he has struck out 34.0% of the time and posted a .229/.291/.422 slash line. On the positive side, both his walk rate and strikeout rate have improved in each of his three seasons at the big-league level, but there is still too much swing-and-miss in his game. In 2020 we saw him rather overmatched at the plate, particularly against the fastball (.155 BA), and breaking balls (.186) continue to be a problem. The Cardinals traded away Tommy Pham and Randy Arozarena in recent seasons to help clear a path for O'Neill, so they hope he continues to improve at the plate to close the gorge between his tools and his production.

O'Neill was slowed by a number of injuries during the 2019 campaign, and as a result, he was limited to 60 major-league contests. During that span, he hit .262 with five home runs and 16 RBI, though he struck out at an alarming rate (35.1 K%) and finished with a 91 wRC+. He also walked in just 6.6% of his plate appearances. Oddly enough, O'Neill showcased more power against right-handed pitching, as all five of his long balls came against right-handers. O'Neill's sample size in the big leagues is still relatively small at this point, but he continues to struggle with plate discipline along with maintaining good health over the course of a major-league season. Taking into consideration the depth that the Cardinals currently have in the outfield, the 24-year-old appears to have his work cut out for him in spring training if he's to make the Opening Day roster.

O'Neill split his time in 2018 between Triple-A Memphis and St. Louis, and certainly flashed his big-league potential with nine home runs in only 142 at-bats while showing off an impressive outfield glove. The 23-year-old has little else to prove after posting a 1.078 OPS at Triple-A, but it remains to be seen if that success will translate to the majors. The big issue is his plate discipline. He posted a 40.1 K% and 4.9 BB% with the Cardinals. It was obviously a small sample size, but his strikeout rate ranked third worst in MLB among hitters with 100-plus PA, behind only Drew Robinson and Brett Phillips. Players like Aaron Judge have famously overcome similarly rough debuts, and O'Neill won't turn 24 until June 22. He will certainly get a chance to showcase himself come spring training, and has as much raw power as anyone on the roster. However, the Cardinals' outfield depth means he may be ticketed for Triple-A again to start the season.

The Cardinals netted O'Neill from Seattle for a soft-tossing southpaw (Marco Gonzales) who brings a 5.47 MLB ERA into his age-26 season. That's a good way of contextualizing how valuable the 22-year-old slugger is. He has posted isolated power figures above .200 at every stop above rookie ball, but his .293 average (.364 BABIP) at Double-A in 2016 now looks like an extreme outlier. The power is very legitimate, but so are his swing and miss issues. He has kept his strikeout rate below 30 percent over the past two seasons, but he is the type of a player who gets to the majors and immediately strikes out roughly 35 percent of the time because there are fewer mistakes to crush and big-league pitchers will exploit the holes in his swing. Throw in the fact that the Cardinals have a heap of young big-league-ready outfielders, and it's hard to see where he fits in. If he appears in line to get regular at-bats, he will be worth rostering in deeper formats, but not before then.

O'Neill does not look the part of a top-50 prospect. He looks like he could be the body-building nephew of Ty Wigginton or Casey McGehee. Right or wrong, scouts factor in physical appearance, which is one reason why it took so long for the 5-foot-11, 210-pound corner outfielder to emerge as someone prospect hounds took seriously. Another factor that limited O'Neill's value heading into 2016 was the amount of swing-and-miss in his game. However, for the first time since he was 18 and playing in the Arizona League, he posted a strikeout rate south of 30 percent (26.1 percent). He also walked at a career-best 10.8 percent clip and sported a 152 wRC+ while playing in the neutral hitting environments of the Southern League, putting to rest any concerns that his 2015 numbers were buoyed by the thin air of the Cal League. The power is plus, the hit tool is average, and the bandwagon is starting to fill up.

After hitting 13 homers in 57 games at Low-A in 2014, O’Neill exploded for 32 big flies in 106 games with High-A Bakersfield last season. There are some flaws in his game -- namely a dubious hit tool, an abundance of swing-and-miss and uncertainty about where he is best suited to play in the field. O’Neill’s 30.5-percent K rate last season was not completely irresponsible given his game power, but if his home run production dips then that K rate would quickly become more unsavory. His .260/.316/.558 slash line can also be downgraded a bit due to the extreme hitting environments of Bakersfield and the California League in general. He stole 16 bases on 21 attempts, but at 5-foot-11, 205, double-digit steals seem unlikely. O’Neill’s overall value will ultimately hinge on his hit tool. If he can hit .240 or .250, then he could be an everyday player in left field or DH.

More Fantasy News

Sitting for regular-season finale

OFBoston Red Sox

September 29, 2024

O'Neill is out of the Red Sox's lineup Sunday against the Rays, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.

ANALYSIS
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Out of Boston's lineup

OFBoston Red Sox

September 27, 2024

O'Neill is not in the lineup for Friday's game against the Rays, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.

ANALYSIS
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Not in Tuesday's lineup

OFBoston Red Sox

September 24, 2024

O'Neill is absent from the lineup in Tuesday's game versus the Blue Jays, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
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Returns to lineup Monday

OFBoston Red Sox

September 23, 2024

O'Neill (back) will start at designated hitter and bat fourth in Monday's game versus the Blue Jays.

ANALYSIS
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Remains out for Game 2

OFBoston Red Sox

Back

September 22, 2024

O'Neill (back) is out of the lineup for the second game of Sunday's doubleheader with the Twins, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Target for Pittsburgh?

OFFree Agent

November 20, 2024

Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette believes O'Neill would be a good fit to sign with Pittsburgh this winter.

ANALYSIS
The 29-year-old O'Neill clubbed 31 homers with an .847 OPS with the Red Sox in 2024, and he would bring some much-needed power to the Pittsburgh lineup. O'Neill did that damage in just 113 games as injuries continue to be an issue, and it was just the second time in six full MLB seasons that he played in at least 100 contests.

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