Victor Robles

Are we still dreaming of the peak 2019 season for Victor Robles with 17 home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a .255 batting average? It seems that way since Robles compiled five home runs and 12 stolen bases with a .209 batting average in 558 PA (2020-2021). Robles rocks a healthy 24.5% LD%, but the contact quality stinks with a career Barrel% of 3.8%. Even the exit velocity on flyballs and line drives, Robles ranked 130th in 2019, last in 2020, and 226th in 2021. Teams have shifted more against Robles with 12.9% in 2019, 22.9% in 2020, and 29.2% in 2021. The career 47% Pull% led to a .256 wOBA against the shift in 2021 down from .260 in 2020 and .328 in 2019. With an ADP past pick 350, we're hoping Robles bounces back for steals. However, the poor contact quality, plus other concerns might limit the upside.

Last offseason, much was made of Robles' poor Statcast profile. Some pointed out his average exit velocity suffers with bunts being included, while others suggested that with his legs, Robles doesn't need to hit the ball hard. Those remaining skeptical proved prescient as Robles never got untracked, losing playing time down the stretch. Not only did Robles add six points to his K%, but he also increased his launch angle. This may be conducive to power, but when you don't hit the ball with much authority, seeing-eye singles and infield hits become cans of corn. While the reason was not given, Robles missed several weeks of summer camp, so there's a chance he didn't play the 2020 season at full strength. Still just 24 years old, it's too soon to give up on Robles, though planning a draft strategy around his steals is a mistake. It's better to consider Robles a stolen-base contributor, not a savior.

After a hyperextended elbow cost Robles a chance at regular run in 2018, he was turned loose in 2019, much to the delight of fantasy players. While he was below league average with the bat by real-world measures, he was a big plus in the rotisserie game. What dinged him in real life: a 5.7 BB% and .419 SLG. The batted-ball numbers from his first full MLB season are downright ugly, but Robles was only 22 years old for most of the year and he uses his legs to beat out a bunch of those weakly-hit balls (18 infield hits). He ranked near the top in sprint speed and led all outfielders by a mile in Outs Above Average, so he should have plenty of room to work through any cold stretches at the plate. There is injury risk here given all the running, diving and HBPs -- he was hit by 25 pitches last season -- but with stolen bases trending downward league wide, Robles will be treated as a hot commodity.

It may seem like Robles has been around forever, but he does not turn 22 until May 19. Robles played just four games at Triple-A before hyperextending his left elbow, and did not return until late July. With the exception of stealing 14 bases in 40 games, Robles' performance at Triple-A was not necessarily befitting of top-five prospect. However, the only International League hitters who logged 100 PA and were younger than Robles were Ronald Acuna and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He also only played 37 games at Double-A in 2017, so he was pushed aggressively in addition to dealing with the elbow injury. Robles has 70-grade speed that could manifest in 30-plus steals as early as this season. He has enough power to hit 15-plus home runs and should hit at least .270 with normal luck. He will likely begin the year at the bottom of the lineup, but could earn one of the top two spots in a year or two.

In a landscape where steals are increasingly difficult to find, Robles' top-of-the-scale speed gives him a leg up on most of the game's top prospects. Statcast clocked Robles at 11.12 seconds from home to third, edging out Trea Turner (11.14 seconds) for the fastest Nationals triple since tracking began in 2015. Like Turner, Robles is not a two-category singles hitter. In addition to a hit tool that has received future plus-plus grades, he has burgeoning power (.206 ISO at High-A, .165 ISO at Double-A) and won't turn 21 until May 19. The Nationals promoted him to the majors after just 37 games in the Eastern League to utilize his elite defense and baserunning in September, but he will return to the minors after spring training, getting his first taste of Triple-A. Robles is not a finished product, and Washington can afford to let him refine his skills on the farm indefinitely. Look for him to either force the issue for a permanent promotion in June or July, or be summoned earlier if the injury bug bites.

While his production didn't quite keep pace with the hype last year, he still put together an impressive campaign for a teenager playing in full-season ball. His athletic gifts remain exceptional, offering the potential for Gold Glove defense in center field along with a 70-grade hit tool and plus speed. However, it's the development of the rest of his skill set that makes him truly special. His 7.1 percent walk rate in 41 games at High-A Potomac exactly matched the major league rate of one of his most common comps, Royals outfielder Lorenzo Cain, and allows him to profile as a player whose OBP won't be entirely dependent on his batting average. His power stroke also showed some incremental growth, keeping alive the possibility that he will become a true five-tool stud once he matures. The Nationals have no reason to rush Robles after picking up Adam Eaton this offseason, but questions persist about Eaton's defensive chops in center field, while it is well-known that he is exceptional in right. Look for Robles to push Eaton to an outfield corner at some point in 2018.

In dynasty leagues that do not allow in-season pickups, Robles will be one of the top players available. At the All-Star break, the athletic center fielder seemed poised to be a trendy sleeper prospect this offseason. The word “trendy” may still apply, but he has shed the “sleeper” tag completely, as he should now be seen as a top-50 prospect in real life and dynasty leagues. Robles slashed .343/.424/.479 with two home runs and 12 steals in 38 games with short season Auburn at age 18, and he had a 1.045 OPS in 23 games in rookie ball to start the year before his promotion mercifully saved GCL pitchers from the task of facing him. A 70-grade hit tool and 70-grade speed are possible while offering plus defense in center field in his prime, essentially mirroring Lorenzo Cain's 2015 campaign on an annual basis. Robles will get his first taste of a full season league to start the year, and he should finish the year as a top-10 prospect.