Zach Eflin

30-Year-Old PitcherSP

Baltimore Orioles

2024 Stats

W-L

10-7

ERA

3.60

WHIP

1.12

121

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

The Rays never spend on free agency. Their last big buy prior to Eflin was a three-year deal with James Loney, so when the Rays gave Eflin a 3 year deal for $40M, it should have gotten more attention. The front office, and pitching coach Kyle Snyder, clearly saw they could get more from him, and indeed they did. They tweaked his repertoire to use more of his cutter, added a sweeper, and encouraged him to visit different parts of the strikezone allowing Eflinl to finish as the sixth most valuable starting pitcher in fantasy baseball in 2023. The 16 wins and 177.2 innings, and 186 strikeouts were career highs as he remained more durable than he had been in recent years with Philadelphia. 2023 was also the third straight season he kept his walk rate below five percent. The risk with Eflin is always his health, but the peripherals are as rock solid as his knee has been unstable in recent years. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Rest of Season

Overall Projection

Overall Rank

Dynasty

From Preseason

#84

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'6"

Weight 220

DOB 4/8/1994

Born Orlando, FL

College None

Drafted 2012 SD

Fans nine in win

PBaltimore Orioles

September 1, 2024

Eflin (10-7) allowed one run on four hits and a walk over seven innings Sunday, striking out nine and earning a win over Colorado.

ANALYSIS
Eflin returned from a brief stint on the injured list and showed no signs of rust. He rolled through six shutout frames before the Rockies finally pushed a run home in the seventh inning. Eflin forced 18 whiffs, including 13 with his curveball. He's been outstanding since being traded to the Orioles. In five starts with his new team, he's gone 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA and a 34:3 K:BB. The hot streak has lowered Eflin's season ERA to 3.60 with a 121:16 K:BB through 142.1 innings. He's currently lined up to face the Rays at home next weekend.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Zach Eflin generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Zach Eflin generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-10%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-17%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-19%

BAA vs LHP

2022

-25%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.230	768	174	32	167	37	5	20
Since 2022vs Right	.256	835	198	23	204	37	3	24
2024vs Left	.229	275	65	10	60	13	0	7
2024vs Right	.275	312	56	6	83	14	2	10
2023vs Left	.210	343	80	13	69	14	3	9
2023vs Right	.259	360	106	11	89	17	1	10
2022vs Left	.277	150	29	9	38	10	2	4
2022vs Right	.209	163	36	6	32	6	0	4
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-40%

ERA at Home

2024

-45%

ERA at Home

2023

-12%

ERA at Home

2022

-75%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	2.73	0.97	201.1	18	7	0	9.3	1.1	1.0
Since 2022Away	4.58	1.18	194.1	11	13	1	7.6	1.4	1.0
2024Home	2.41	1.02	56.0	5	2	0	7.7	0.6	1.1
2024Away	4.38	1.18	86.1	5	5	0	7.6	1.3	1.0
2023Home	3.30	1.04	103.2	11	4	0	10.4	1.2	1.0
2023Away	3.77	1.00	74.0	5	4	0	8.0	1.2	1.0
2022Home	1.73	0.74	41.2	2	1	0	8.4	1.3	1.1
2022Away	6.88	1.59	34.0	1	4	1	6.9	2.4	0.8
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Stat Review

How does Zach Eflin compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

7.56

K/9

7.7

BB/9

1.0

HR/9

1.1

Fastball

91.9 mph

ERA

3.60

WHIP

1.12

BABIP

.310

GB/FB

1.24

Left On Base

71.7%

Exit Velocity

82.0 mph

Barrels/BBE

4.1%

Spin Rate

2225 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

24.5%

Swinging Strike

10.2%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Orioles Depth Chart

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14 days ago

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2015

2014

It was a nice moment when Eflin, who'd endured more of the Phillies' playoff drought than most, recorded his first career save in the game which clinched the the team's first playoff berth since 2011, but the fact that he was pitching in relief in the first place is unfortunately what fantasy managers should be primarily concerned with. Knee issues limited Eflin to 18 starts in 2021, and they didn't go away in 2022. He finished with 13 starts and seven relief appearances. When healthy, he was the same unexciting but capable pitcher he's been for the past several seasons, as his 4.04 ERA and 20.8 K% were both near matches for the 4.12 ERA and 21.4 K% he managed from 2019 through 2021. His 4.8 BB% was excellent, as usual, but while many low-whiff, low-walk pitchers become durable back-end starters, Eflin's injuries mean he lacks that reliability. The Rays are betting on some untapped potential and gambling on his health, as they gave him the richest free agent contract in team history (three years, $40 million). He should open the year in the middle of the rotation. Eflin's sinker and cutter show some intriguing movement qualities and he excelled at limiting hard contact last season (96th percentile average exit velocity), so perhaps the Rays can extract a career year with the aid of a massive home park upgrade.

Eflin was more interesting than ever last offseason, as he'd just seen his K% jump by over 10 points to 28.6, helping him to a career-best 3.97 ERA, a number which could have been considerably better according to the ERA estimators. He was unable to repeat the feat in 2021, producing the unremarkable numbers we've seen from him throughout his career. He did show excellent control, with his 3.6 BB% leading all pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, but his K% fell back to a below-average 22.4%. That added up to a 4.17 ERA, though the ERA estimators were again about half a run more optimistic. Eflin's standout control keeps him somewhat interesting heading into this season, but he now comes with injury concerns, as a patellar tendon issue kept him out for most of the second half and eventually required surgery. His availability for Opening Day is up in the air, though he's trended in the right direction early on in spring training and may not miss much time, if any, to open the season.

There weren't too many bright spots on the Phillies' pitching staff in 2020, but Eflin was certainly one of them. He trimmed his ERA for the third consecutive year, finishing with a 3.97 mark in 59 innings. His improvement in that category in 2019 wasn't backed by his underlying numbers, but it was this time, as his 3.39 FIP and 3.23 xFIP suggested that he actually deserved a far better ERA. The 26-year-old struck out just 17.6% of opposing batters in his first four big-league seasons, but he jumped all the way up to 28.6% in that category last season. He didn't sacrifice any control to get there, posting a strong walk rate (6.1%). He also recorded a career-high 47.4% groundball rate. Just how much of Eflin's short-season gains stick around in 2021 remains to be seen, but he could be developing into an entirely new tier of starter rather than the boring back-end option he'd settled in as before last season.

Eflin took a major step forward in 2018, going from looking unplayable to looking like a solid back-end starter. Despite cutting his ERA from 4.36 to 4.13 in 2019, he didn't exactly improve again in his age-25 season. He briefly lost his spot in the rotation as his underlying stats took a turn for the worse. His FIP rose by more than a run (from 3.80 to 4.85), while his strikeout rate fell from 22.5% to 18.3%. He did at least keep his walk rate low, posting a 6.8% mark for the second straight year, and he did improve in one area, posting a career-high 44.6% groundball rate, but that figure is still merely above-average. If Eflin can't improve his strikeout numbers next season, he still might be good enough to stick in the back of the Phillies' rotation, but he won't do much to excite fantasy owners, as low-strikeout starters whose ERAs are just good enough to be playable aren't hard to find.

Eflin entered 2018 offering little reason for optimism, having recorded ERAs of 5.54 and 6.16 (with similarly ugly FIPs) in two 11-start cameos in the majors. He had shown good control, walking just 5.3% of batters, but hadn’t shown any ability to put hitters away, recording just a 12.0% strikeout rate. In 2018, however, he was a new man. Thanks in part to a fastball which jumped from 92.7 mph to 94.3 mph, he suddenly had the ability to strike batters out, managing a league-average 22.5% strikeout rate in 24 starts. Combined with a walk rate that took just a small step back (to 6.8%), he finished with a solid enough 4.36 ERA and a 3.80 FIP, suggesting room for even more improvement. His spot in the rotation going forward isn’t guaranteed, as Jerad Eickhoff should be healthy this season and the Phillies could bring in more competition in the offseason, but Eflin should remain a competent (if unexciting) option if given the chance.

Eflin continued to struggle in his second year in the majors. He followed up his 5.54 ERA in 2016 with a 6.16 ERA last season, and the high number was well-deserved. He posted a K/9 of just 4.9, well below the major-league average. He did manage a solid walk rate (1.7 BB/9) and an average groundball rate (44.1 percent), but it's hard to succeed as a starter in the big leagues without missing bats. Eflin battled injuries in each of the past two seasons, but he's still just 23 years old, so it's too early to write him off completely. The Phillies remain short on quality starting pitching, so Eflin will likely be given another chance to earn a rotation spot in 2018, but will have to show considerable improvement to stick around with the big-league club.

Eflin entered last season with minimal expectations after his strikeout rate dropped to 4.7 K/9 at Double-A Reading in 2015. He got off to a great start at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, thanks in part to a spike in his strikeout rate which Eflin attributed to better command of his fastball along with learning to set hitters up. That improvement earned him a shot with the Phillies in June. Eflin was terrible in his first start, but settled in after that, going 2-3 with a 2.08 ERA over his next seven starts before things went south in his final three appearances. He was placed on the disabled list in early-August with patellar tendinopathy in his knees, a condition he has dealt with since he was a child, along with a fractured foot. It is possible the injuries had some impact on his struggles over his final three starts. Eflin had surgery on both of his knees toward the end of last season and is expected to be ready for spring training. He will need another spike in his strikeout rate to inspire confidence as he managed just a 4.4 K/9 in the majors last season. It may require him to develop another one of his pitches to go with his slider, as both his two-seam and four-seam fastballs were quite hittable last season.

Eflin completed the second full season of his professional career as a 20-year-old at High-A Lake Elsinore, where he fared well against much older competition. His greatest skills growth came in his ability to get opposing hitters to pound the ball into the ground more consistently, as he posted a 1.67 GO/AO mark after showing flyball tendencies (0.76 GO/AO) in the Midwest League in 2013. At 6-foot-4, there is still projection remaining for Eflin, who typically works with a low-90s two-seam fastball, but has the ability to reach back and dial up his four-seamer to 97 mph. He also throws a good slider and an improving changeup, rounding out an arsenal that may eventually enable him to miss more bats. At the low end, he should develop into a steady innings eater, but he's very advanced for his age and could develop into a No. 3 starter. Traded to the Dodgers in December before being included in the package that sent Jimmy Rollins to Los Angeles, Eflin will begin his first season in the Phillies' organization pitching in the rotation at Double-A.

After an atrocious April in which he faltered his way to a 6.06 ERA in four starts, Eflin settled in nicely, posting a 7-4 record, 2.20 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 74:23 K:BB ratio in 102.1 innings covering 18 starts. Don't be surprised if he takes the next step in his age-20 season by starting 2014 at High-A Lake Elsinore. A supplemental first-round pick in 2012, Eflin could make a quick ascent up the Padres' organizational prospect rankings if he fares well in the California League.

More Fantasy News

Activated for Sunday's start

PBaltimore Orioles

September 1, 2024

The Orioles activated Eflin (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to start Sunday's game against the Rockies.

ANALYSIS
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Will start Sunday

PBaltimore Orioles

Shoulder

August 31, 2024

Manager Brandon Hyde told reporters after Saturday's 7-5 loss to the Rockies that Eflin (shoulder) will start for the Orioles on Sunday, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.

ANALYSIS
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Chance to start Sunday

PBaltimore Orioles

Shoulder

August 29, 2024

Eflin (shoulder) will throw a bullpen session Thursday and could be in line to start Sunday at Colorado, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.

ANALYSIS
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Expects minimum IL stay

PBaltimore Orioles

Shoulder

August 22, 2024

Eflin (shoulder) said Thursday that he expects to return from the 15-day injured list when first eligible on Sept. 1, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.

ANALYSIS
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To IL with shoulder inflammation

PBaltimore Orioles

Shoulder

August 20, 2024

The Orioles placed Eflin on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with right shoulder inflammation.

ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Houston, Atlanta, St. Louis in mix

PTampa Bay Rays

July 25, 2024

Houston, Atlanta and St. Louis are among the clubs expected to have strong trade interest in Eflin, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.

ANALYSIS
The Rays are one of the few clubs with rotation depth from which they can trade, and it make senses that they'd entertain offers for Eflin given his salary will rise to $18 million in 2025. Eflin hasn't been as good this year as he was in 2023 when he finished sixth in the American League Cy Young voting, but he's still been servicable in 2024 with a 4.09 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 87:13 K:BB over 110 innings covering 19 starts.

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