2022-23 NBA Outlooks: Who are the Top Guards?

As the 2022-23 NBA season quickly approaches, it's time for fantasy managers to begin digging in on preparation. Part of that process is breaking down the player pool by position and identifying targets, fades and late-round values who could end up paying major dividends over the course of an 82-game schedule.

Below, we've identified the top 20-to-25 targets at each position in eight-category, roto leagues for the 2022-23 fantasy basketball season. Keep in mind that these rankings are subject to change before we get to Opening Night, but they're based on RotoWire's 2022-23 roto league projections. To avoid confusion, we've opted to include each player in only one position group, even if they're eligible at multiple spots on different sites.

POINT GUARDS

Perhaps the deepest position in the league, quality point guards can be found all the way through the top 120 overall players. Led by Luka Doncic, the position is also home to elite targets James Harden, LaMelo Ball, Stephen Curry, Trae Young and Damian Lillard – each of whom have top-10 upside.

Of that group, only Lillard failed to post first-round value in 2021-22, but that was due almost entirely to the fact that he struggled through an abdominal injury that eventually cut his campaign short. Prior to last season, Lillard was one of the most dependable players in all of fantasy basketball, finishing between third and 19th in total value in each of his first nine years in the league.

Beyond that first tier is a group of young point guards led by Tyrese Haliburton, who surprisingly returned first-round value in some formats last season. Spurred on by a midseason trade from Sacramento to Indiana, Haliburton spent the final months of the season operating as the Pacers' No. 1 playmaker. The Iowa State product finished second in the NBA in steals behind only Dejounte Murray.

Fred VanVleet has been a top-30 mainstay in per-game value for three straight seasons, while Cade Cunningham, Darius Garland and Ja Morant are each coming off of breakout 2021-22 campaigns. A rookie last season, Cunningham got off to a relatively slow start but by the end of the season he worked his way into the top-50. Meanwhile, Garland made a major Year 3 leap, but with Donovan Mitchell now in Cleveland, it may be difficult for the No. 5 pick in 2019 to climb much higher.

Luka Doncic, Mavericks

For the third straight year, Doncic will enter the season as the betting favorite to take home the MVP award. While he's an elite fantasy player, his relatively pedestrian free throw percentage – on high volume – is what's kept him from threatening for a top-five finish in recent years. Given how the Mavs' roster is shaping up, Doncic projects to shoulder a heavier-than-ever burden as a scorer and playmaker in 2022-23.

2023 NBA MVP Odds and 2023 NBA Championship Odds.

James Harden, 76ers

Despite Harden having a down year, he still ranked fifth in per-game fantasy production last season. Whether or not you buy that he's in better shape and has a renewed focus, he's still worth a first-round pick and is one of the best sources of assists out there.

LaMelo Ball, Hornets

Ball's fantasy-friendly numbers resulted in him ranking 15th in per-game production last season. He'll remain the Hornets' No. 1 option, and he might be leaned upon even more with Miles Bridges' status for the season unclear.

Stephen Curry, Warriors

Curry hasn't played more than 69 games since 2016-17 and is entering his age 34 season, but he's still a Top 5 MVP favorite and is an elite source of threes and free-throw percentage in fantasy. There's no reason to expect his role to change this year.

Trae Young, Hawks

Young's usage rate for the upcoming season is muddied by the acquisition of another point guard in Dejounte Murray, but the No. 5 overall pick from 2018 is still going to be the focal point of the team. Over the past three seasons, he's averaged 27.8 points, 9.5 assists and 4.0 rebounds in 34.6 minutes.

Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers

Lillard is coming off a lost season due to a persistent abdominal injury that required surgery. However, prior to that, he ranked as a top-12 fantasy asset on a per-game basis for four straight seasons. It shouldn't surprise anyone if he's back at that level of production – a stretch in which he averaged 27.9 points, 7.3 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.1 steals in 36.4 minutes.

Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers

After being dealt to the tanking Pacers last season, the sophomore averaged 17.5 points on 50/42/85 shooting, 9.6 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 2.4 combined steals-plus-blocks. The table is set for him to replicate those numbers – don't be surprised if he flirts with first-round value.

Fred VanVleet, Raptors

VanVleet's fantasy rank has improved every season, topping out at 17 last year. With Kyle Lowry out of the picture, VanVleet thrived, averaging 20.3 points, 6.7 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 2.2 combined steals-plus-blocks. Maybe Scottie Barnes handles a bit more offense this year, but VanVleet should still ultimately run the show.

Cade Cunningham, Pistons

Cunningham started the year slowly but picked things up in December and really took a step forward toward the end of the season. He ranked 50th in per-game production on the whole campaign, but after the All-Star break, he averaged 21.1 points, 6.5 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 1.8 combined steals-plus-blocks. If he can figure out his three-point shooting (31.4 percent on 5.7 attempts), he could be in for a massive second season.

Darius Garland, Cavaliers

Garland was named an All-Star last season behind 21.7 points, 8.6 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals, finishing with a per-game fantasy rank of 23. The addition of Donovan Mitchell may take away some of Garland's usage, but he should still run the offense. Selecting Garland in the third round seems safe.

Ja Morant, Grizzlies

Last year's Most Improved Player, Morant reached star status with averages of 27.4 points, 6.7 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 1.2 steals in 33.1 minutes. His free-throw percentage (76.1%) still leaves something to be desired, but there's no question he's ascending into one of the best point guards in the NBA.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder

Gilgeous-Alexander has quietly become one of the better guards in the NBA, but he's stuck on the tanking Thunder and has combined for just 91 appearances over the past two years. Fantasy managers again have to be concerned that SGA will be shut down towards the end of the season, but over these recent 91 games, he's averaged 24.1 points, 5.9 assists, 4.8 rebounds and 1.9 combined steals-plus-blocks.

Chris Paul, Suns

Paul is entering his age 37 season. He continues to be one of the best sources of assists, steals and free-throw percentage in the NBA. While he's managed to play at least 65 games in each of the past three seasons, he remains a candidate for missed games due to rest or wear and tear given his age.

Kyrie Irving, Nets

Putting aside the mere 29 games Irving played last season due to New York City's vaccination laws, he hasn't stayed healthy much throughout his career. He's played more than 60 games just four times in his 11 seasons. His per-game production is elite – three straight seasons ranking sixth – but he's a clear games-played risk.

Jrue Holiday, Bucks

Milwaukee is one of the safest teams to target in fantasy, and Holiday is no exception. He's ranked 27th and 28th, respectively, in per-game fantasy production during his two seasons as a Buck. His production is well-rounded. In the two campaigns, he's averaged 18.0 points, 6.4 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 2.1 combined steals-plus-blocks and 1.9 threes while shooting 50.2 percent from the field and 76.0 percent from the charity stripe.

De'Aaron Fox, Kings

Fox played better late last year after Tyrese Haliburton was dealt to the Pacers, but fantasy managers have a right to be concerned about Fox's lack of progress in general. He's ranked between 46-62 in the past four seasons in per-game fantasy production, and it's hard to point to any part of his game and say he's gotten meaningfully better during this stretch. Maybe having a good big like Domantas Sabonis around will help him become more productive.

D'Angelo Russell, Timberwolves

Russell struggled with his shot last season, hitting just 41.1 percent of his field goals and a modest 34.0 percent of his 8.0 three-point attempts per game, but he was still an effective point guard for Minnesota. He dished out 7.1 assists compared to 2.7 turnovers, and he averaged 18.1 points. He has a new lob target in Rudy Gobert, and maybe Russell's scoring decreases in a more playmaking-heavy role, especially with Anthony Edwards emerging, but the point guard should still be worthy of a mid-to-late-round selection.

Jamal Murray, Nuggets

Murray missed all of last season after tearing his ACL late in 2020-21. That was his best season yet, ranking 31st in per-game value. He might have to shake off some rust early in the year, but he's one of the better point guards in the NBA and has proven chemistry with Nikola Jokic.

More on Murray's recovery: NBA Injury Analysis: Biggest Injuries to Monitor for 2022-23 Fantasy Drafts

Lonzo Ball, Bulls

News of Ball being doubtful for training camp is concerning since he underwent meniscus surgery in January with an initial timetable of six weeks – not six months. Injuries have been a persistent theme throughout his career. At some point, he's worth drafting given his well-rounded stats – he ranked a shocking 25th in per-game fantasy value last year – but managers should select some high-floor guards before taking the risk.

Kyle Lowry, Heat

The now-36-year-old point guard saw a reduced role on the Heat, sharing more responsibilities with Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo. Lowry's 18.2 percent usage rate was his lowest since his third year in the NBA, and his 13.4 points per game were his fewest since 2009-10. Another year older puts Lowry at increased risk of injury and rest, plus general regression. As a result, fantasy managers likely won't have to pay up for Lowry, but he still provides a nice floor as a three-point shooter and passer.

Jalen Brunson, Knicks

Brunson goes from the No. 2 option behind Luka Doncic last season to the No. 1 option on the Knicks. It's tough to know exactly what to expect, but with Doncic off the court last season, Brunson averaged 22.1 points, 7.4 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 1.0 steals per 36 minutes.

Kevin Porter Jr., Rockets

Porter struggled early last season but rounded into form after the New Year, averaging 16.9 points on 44/40/65 shooting, 6.3 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.0 steals in 31.6 minutes. He shouldn't lose any usage this season, and another year of development should mean some improvements. He ranked 96th last year in per-game value.

SHOOTING GUARDS

Shooting guard is one of the deeper positions in the NBA, so you don't have to worry about reaching. There are plenty of safe options with secure roles. Of course, it's hard to go wrong with guys like Paul George, Devin Booker and Anthony Edwards.

Still, if you want to wait, you can. Deep down the list there are still guys like Tyler Herro, Klay Thompson and Marcus Smart who are at no risk of losing their roles. There are even some upside plays like Jalen Green and Devin Vassell who you can get in the 70s or later. This is where you can turn if you need points and threes.

Paul George, Clippers

Persistent injury issues lately – 133 games played over the past three seasons – have hurt fantasy managers who have drafted George. But he's still excellent when playing. He ranked 27th in his first season with the Clippers in per-game value, 19th two seasons ago and ninth last year. LA is deep, so George may trend closer to the back end of those ranks, but he's still worthy of a second-round selection.

Devin Booker, Suns

Booker has been one of the most consistent shooting guards in the NBA over the past five seasons, ranking between 17-25 in per-game value in four of those years. Last year was no exception, and he averaged 26.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.1 steals while making his third consecutive All-Star game.

Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves

Edwards appears to be on the verge of stardom. He ranked 36th in per-game fantasy value last year as a 20-year-old, and his level of play maintained in the first-round playoff series against Memphis, where he averaged 25.2 points oin 46/40/82 shooting, 4.2 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.4 combined steals-plus-blocks. He has to share touches with D'Angelo Russell and Karl-Anthony Towns, but Edwards definitively emerging as the go-to option would not be surprising.

Bradley Beal, Wizards

After two seasons averaging 30.9 points on 47.1 percent shooting, Beal crashed down to 23.2 points on 45.1 percent shooting last season. He also played in just 40 games, as a left wrist injury forced him to sit out the back half of the campaign. Beal still played well enough to rank 46th in per-game value, but it was a far cry from the ranks of 11 and 12 he enjoyed in the prior two years. It seems like a bounceback could be in store.

Dejounte Murray, Hawks

After leading the rebuilding Spurs last year and averaging an impressive 21.1 points, 9.2 assists, 8.3 rebounds and 2.0 steals, Murray finds himself in a much different situation. He's been paired up next to one of the most high-usage players in the NBA in Trae Young. Given that both players are point guards and Murray isn't a floor spacer, the fit is confounding. Fantasy managers should expect a meaningful drop in production.

Jaylen Brown, Celtics

Brown is cemented as the Celtics' No. 2 option behind Jayson Tatum, but that's not preventing him from putting up great numbers. Though he missed out on the All-Star game last year after making it in 2020-21, he still averaged 23.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals.

Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers

After five seasons in Utah – three of which resulted in All-Star nods – Mitchell joins the Cavaliers. Darius Garland will likely still take control of playmaking responsibilities, however, so Mitchell could see a marginal reduction in usage. He should still be worth a selection in the late second to third rounds of most fantasy drafts.

More on the Donovan Mitchell trade: NBA Offseason: How the Biggest Trades and Signings Affect Fantasy Basketball

Zach LaVine, Bulls

The addition of DeMar DeRozan cut into LaVine's usage, and the guard dealt with a persistent knee injury as well, though he still managed to play 67 games. The result was a rank of 41st in per-game fantasy production – quite the drop from LaVine's 2020-21 rank of 16. The roster makeup is essentially the same this season, so LaVine probably should be drafted in the third or fourth round for most leagues.

Desmond Bane, Grizzlies

Bane had a breakout sophomore campaign, ranking 47th in per-game fantasy production behind 18.2 points on 46/44/90 shooting, 4.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.2 steals. Dillon Brooks missed much of last season, which opened up extra usage for Bane, but with Jaren Jackson now expected to miss nearly half the season, Bane should have no issues producing numbers like he did last year. 

Terry Rozier, Hornets

Quietly, Rozier has ranked a solid 48th and 44th in per-game production across the past two seasons, averaging 19.9 points on 45/38/85 shooting, 4.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.3 steals. He should have no problem re-creating those numbers this year, especially with Miles Bridges' status unclear.

CJ McCollum, Pelicans

After spending his entire career in Portland, McCollum was dealt to the Pelicans at least year's trade deadline. He joins a potent offense with Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Jonas Valanciunas and Herbert Jones. The veteran guard has ranked between 29-64th over the past seven years in per-game production, and given the other weapons on the team, it makes sense to draft him near the back end of that range this year.

Josh Giddey, Thunder

Giddey started the year slowly, but in his final 24 games, he averaged 14.5 points on 45/28/78 shooting, 8.6 rebounds and 6.8 assists in 33.4 minutes. Giddey exhibited tremendous upside as a passer as a 19-year-old, though his 47.8 true shooting percentage on the year was awful and tracked with the pre-draft concerns that he may never be a great scorer. Still, he managed to rank 95th in per-game production as a rookie, so he needs to be drafted higher this year.

Devin Vassell, Spurs

With Dejounte Murray being traded to Atlanta and San Antonio entering a deep rebuild, it seems as if Vassell could end up as the second scoring option on the team behind Keldon Johnson. Vassell saw 27.3 minutes per game last year and ranked 121st in per-game fantasy production. He should see both increased minutes and usage this year, making him someone to draft inside the Top 100 with confidence.

2022-23 NBA Fantasy Sleepers: 7 Guards on the Rise

Jalen Green, Rockets

Green went through rookie ups and downs but was a changed man after the All-Star break, averaging 22.1 points on 48/39/76 shooting, 3.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists in 34.8 minutes. He ranked just 152nd in per-game production on the season, but he clearly has upside for more as a sophomore.

Tyrese Maxey, 76ers

Maxey broke out as a sophomore last season with Ben Simmons sitting out, and he maintained his production once James Harden arrived. That, plus his strong playoff performances, is encouraging ahead of this season. He ranked 81st in per-game production, and he can probably be drafted a bit higher than that this time around if we're assuming improvement.

Marcus Smart, Celtics

Smart officially shifted over to point guard last season with positive results. He reached a career-high 5.9 assists per game, and he also contributed 1.7 steals per game while winning Defensive Player of the Year. The addition of Malcolm Brogdon – a superior offensive player – could take some touches away from Smart. However, Brogdon is injury prone and expected to come off the bench in a sixth-man role.

Buddy Hield, Pacers

Seemingly a candidate to get traded away from the Pacers' rebuild, Hield's value is relatively fluid. Regardless of where he plays, he's one of the best volume three-point shooters in the league, so he'll be a secure souce of longballs.

Jordan Poole, Warriors

Poole's upside is capped playing in an established Warriors offense, but he'll get plenty of opportunities to thrive as a sixth man like he did last year. He ranked 57th in per-game fantasy production in 30 minutes per game, but it may be difficult for him to consistently reach that workload if Golden State is healthier next season.

Klay Thompson, Warriors

Thompson made his return in January after not playing since the 2019 playoffs. Understandably, he had to shake off rust and had his lowest effective field-goal percentage (52.9%) since his second year in the NBA. However, that didn't stop him from averaging 20.4 points in 29.4 minutes in the regular season, and he played well in the playoffs as the Warriors won the NBA title. He could be prone to rest days this year again, but it's possible his efficiency gets back to normal, which for Thompson, is elite.

Tyler Herro, Heat

The reigning Sixth Man of the Year, Herro had a breakout campaign – 20.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists in 32.6 minutes – and ranked 66th in per-game fantasy production. Miami made no major moves in the offseason and arguably got thinner. With Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry also prone to injury and rest, there will be no shortage of opportunities for Herro to lead the offense.

Collin Sexton, Jazz

Last year was lost for Sexton after he tore his meniscus early in the year. Two seasons ago, he ranked 74th in per-game production behind 24.3 points, 4.4 assists, 3.1 rebounds and 1.0 steals. Given the tanking situation Utah is in, fantasy managers should expect Sexton to have career-high usage.