This article is part of our Advanced Stats Analysis series.
Spencer Hawes has agreed to terms with the Los Angeles Clippers according to Yahoo! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. Hawes was a valuable fantasy contributor last season despite playing for two different teams. His stats with the 76ers would have ranked as the 46th best fantasy season, while his stats with the Cavs would have ranked as the 57th best fantasy season.
Hawes by Team | MIN | FGA | FG% | FTA | FT% | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | PTS | Auction Value | Fantasy Rank |
Philadelphia | 31.4 | 11.1 | 45% | 1.9 | 78% | 1.5 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 13.0 | $17 | 46 |
Cleveland | 29.8 | 11.0 | 47% | 1.9 | 78% | 1.7 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 13.5 | $12 | 57 |
Regardless of the team, the majority of his fantasy value last season came from blocks, rebounds, and three-pointers, a rare combination. In total, Hawes finished as the 52nd best fantasy player last season, and had he joined a team as a starter this offseason, he would have had a good chance to rank similarly next season. However, on the Clippers, he will likely be the third big man in the rotation behind Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. Let's take a look at how this move to the bench will affect Hawes' fantasy value next season.
Pace Impact
Hawes started last season with the 76ers who averaged 99.2 possessions per game, the highest pace in the league, and then finished the season with the Cavs whose pace (93.1) was below league average (93.9 per basketball-reference). The Clippers, under coach Doc Rivers, played above the league average pace at 95.9 possessions per game last season, right in between the 76ers and the Cavs.
Because Hawes played part of the season with a team that played at a higher pace than the Clippers, and part of the season with a team that played at a slower pace than the Clippers, adjusting Hawes' stats last season to the Clippers' pace of play has almost no impact on his fantasy value, changing his ranking from 52nd to 53rd overall.
Playing Time Impact
Hawes averaged 31 minutes per game, a number that seems unattainable in his new bench role. To get an idea of the level of playing time Hawes might see next season, take a look below at the reserve big men who averaged over 20 minutes per game last season (min 60 games):
Player | Tm | G | GS | MPG |
Taj Gibson | CHI | 82 | 8 | 28.7 |
Anderson Varejao | CLE | 65 | 29 | 27.7 |
Enes Kanter | UTA | 80 | 37 | 26.7 |
Markieff Morris | PHO | 81 | 0 | 26.6 |
John Henson | MIL | 70 | 23 | 26.5 |
Boris Diaw | SAS | 79 | 24 | 25.0 |
Patrick Patterson | TOT | 65 | 13 | 23.6 |
Amar'e Stoudemire | NYK | 65 | 21 | 22.6 |
Andray Blatche | BRK | 73 | 7 | 22.2 |
Timofey Mozgov | DEN | 82 | 30 | 21.6 |
Jordan Hill | LAL | 72 | 32 | 20.8 |
Anthony Tolliver | CHA | 64 | 9 | 20.3 |
Kelly Olynyk | BOS | 70 | 9 | 20.0 |
Considering Hawes' talent level, and the Clippers lack of depth at the position, Hawes seems set to rank among the top reserve big men in minutes per game next season. If we adjust his stats from last season for an average of 22 minutes per game, his ranking would change from 53rd to 136th. An adjustment to 26 minutes per game would have had him ranked at 96th. For my projection below, I used 24 minutes per game.
Projection For Next Season
If we combine Hawes' previous NBA seasons on a per-100-possessions basis to develop his projected stats, and then adjust that projection for the Clippers pace and an average playing time of 24 minutes per game (a method I explain in detail here), we get the following projection for Hawes next season:
2014-15 Projection | MIN | FGA | FG% | FTA | FT% | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | PTS | Auction Value | Fantasy Rank |
Spencer Hawes | 24.0 | 8.5 | 46% | 1.4 | 78% | 1.2 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 10.1 | $1 | 120 |
Even in limited minutes, Hawes projects to put up production that would be above replacement level in three-pointers (1.2 3PM), rebounds (6.3 rpg) and blocks (0.9 bpg), for an overall rank of 120th, good enough to be draftable in standard rotisserie leagues. However, because it's unlikely that he plays significantly more minutes than this, his upside is limited. I would recommend targeting players more upside than Hawes in the late rounds of fantasy drafts.
Do you disagree with my projection for Hawes? Would you like to know how he would rank at a different level of playing time or in a different fantasy league? Leave a comment below, or contact me on Twitter @MarcFRoberts.
