This article is part of our Advanced Stats Analysis series.
Injury Analysis by Jeff Stotts
With Kevin Durant still recovering from a Jones fracture in his foot, his teammate Russell Westbrook is now expected to miss four weeks recovering from surgery to fix a broken hand sustained in a loss to the Clippers.
Westbrook suffered a second metacarpal fracture in his right hand, an injury similar to the one sustained earlier this year by Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo.
The metacarpals are the bones of the hand located between the carpal bones of the wrist and the bones of the fingers. Their positioning makes bones vulnerable to injury in a variety of ways, most commonly a direct blow. Westbrook's injury appears to have occurred when he hit his hand on teammate Kendrick Perkins' elbow during a drive to the basket.
Last season, seven players, including Paul Pierce, Anthony Davis, and Spurs forwards Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, suffered fractured metacarpals. However, only two of these players, Patrick Beverley and Ognjen Kuzmic, needed surgery.
Surgery is often necessary when the broken bone shifts following the injury. If left untreated, the bone can take a prolonged period to heal or, in some cases, heal incorrectly. To prevent this from occurring, surgeons place surgical hardware into the area to stabilize the bone.
On the plus side, the exact bone Westbrook fractured may allow for a quicker return. The second metacarpal is tightly anchored to the carpal bones and remains largely immobile, unlike the fourth and the fifth
Injury Analysis by Jeff Stotts
With Kevin Durant still recovering from a Jones fracture in his foot, his teammate Russell Westbrook is now expected to miss four weeks recovering from surgery to fix a broken hand sustained in a loss to the Clippers.
Westbrook suffered a second metacarpal fracture in his right hand, an injury similar to the one sustained earlier this year by Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo.
The metacarpals are the bones of the hand located between the carpal bones of the wrist and the bones of the fingers. Their positioning makes bones vulnerable to injury in a variety of ways, most commonly a direct blow. Westbrook's injury appears to have occurred when he hit his hand on teammate Kendrick Perkins' elbow during a drive to the basket.
Last season, seven players, including Paul Pierce, Anthony Davis, and Spurs forwards Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, suffered fractured metacarpals. However, only two of these players, Patrick Beverley and Ognjen Kuzmic, needed surgery.
Surgery is often necessary when the broken bone shifts following the injury. If left untreated, the bone can take a prolonged period to heal or, in some cases, heal incorrectly. To prevent this from occurring, surgeons place surgical hardware into the area to stabilize the bone.
On the plus side, the exact bone Westbrook fractured may allow for a quicker return. The second metacarpal is tightly anchored to the carpal bones and remains largely immobile, unlike the fourth and the fifth metacarpals that have a higher degree of motion to allow extra mobility at the wrist and pinkie. As a result of this extra bit of movement, fractures of the fourth and fifth can require additional time to heal.
Westbrook will spend the next four weeks in progressive rehab, designed to address range of motion, strength, and finally basketball-related activities. He will be able to maintain his conditioning. If after the four weeks the bone displays signs of healing, Westbrook should be cleared to return. Expect him to wear some sort of protective padding on the area when he's back on the court.
Fantasy Analysis by Marc Roberts
Westbrook's injury impacts rotisserie leagues differently than head-to-head leagues. Let's first consider his new value in a rotisserie league.
Rotisserie Leagues
Below is Westbrook's RotoWire 2014-15 preseason projection and ranking for an 8-category rotisserie league, prior to his injury:
Player | Gs | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Pts | TOV | Rank | Auction |
Russell Westbrook | 79 | 35.4 | 43.6% | 82.6% | 1.5 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 24.8 | 3.9 | 6 | $47 |
Westbrook was ranked 6th in RotoWire's preseason rankings, mainly because of his ability to put up big numbers across the board, including an elite level of scoring at 24.8 points per game.
As Jeff mentioned above, Westbrook is expected miss 4-6 weeks, which equates to somewhere between 15 and 21 games. Assuming he is able to produce at a pre-injury level when he returns, here is where he would slot into the RotoWire rankings at both ends of the 4-6 week spectrum.
4 Weeks: Misses 15 games
Player | Gs | MPG | FG% | FT% | 3PM | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Pts | TOV | Rank | Auction |
Russell Westbrook | 79 | 35.4 | 43.6% | 82.6% | 1.5 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 24.8 | 3.9 | 6 | $47 |
In the best-case scenario, Westbrook loses $17 dollars of auction value and drops to 21st in the rankings, just behind Jrue Holiday, and just ahead of Goran Dragic and Kemba Walker.
6 Weeks: Misses 21 games
Rank | Auction | Player |
43 | $22 | Russell Westbrook |
Westbrook loses another $8 in value in this scenario and drops another 22 spots in the rankings to 43rd overall, right below Darren Collison and right ahead of Michael Carter-Williams.
In an 8-category rotisserie league, I would recommend trying to trade Westbrook for players like Holiday, Dragic, or Walker, because in doing so you are getting value equal to Westbrook's best-case scenario, while removing the risk that Westbrook's injury lasts longer than four weeks or that he is unable to perform at the same level as he did prior to his injury.
Head-to-Head Leagues
Westbrook was ranked 5th in our preseason head-to-head rankings, a few spots higher than in rotisserie leagues because his middling field goal percentage isn't as damaging in a head-to-head league as it is in a rotisserie league.
If Westbrook misses only four weeks, he would drop to 22nd overall in our head-to-head rankings, just behind Kyle Lowry and Monta Ellis. If he misses six weeks, he would drop to 45th overall, just behind Jeff Teague and Mike Conley.
However, determining Westbrook's value in your head-to-head league is more complicated than simply seeing where he would slot into RotoWire's rankings. Here are a few additional things to consider.
1. How punitive is it in your league to carry an injured player?
Does your league have an injured reserve slot, or do your lineups lock weekly? If you play with either of these setting, that means there isn't any additional disadvantage to carrying Westbrook beyond missing out on the stats he would have accumulated if he were healthy.
However, if you play in a league with daily lineup changes and no weekly games played limits, then carrying Westbrook on your bench instead of a healthy player who can accumulate stats for your team is a huge disadvantage for the next 4-6 weeks. If you play in this type of league, I would recommend trading Westbrook for any of the four point guards I mentioned above (Lowry, Ellis, Teague, or Conley), and would even consider going lower in rankings for players like Eric Bledsoe or Brandon Knight depending on the next item.
2. How likely you are to make the playoffs in your league?
Clearly, having Westbrook in the fantasy playoffs would be a huge advantage for your team, but it's only an advantage if you actually make the playoffs. Therefore, you need to weigh the likelihood that you'll be able to make the playoffs in your league when you are deciding what to do with Westbrook.
Do you play in a 12-team league where only four teams make the playoffs? If so, its probably a good idea to pursue trading away Westbrook even at a discount so that you can avoid falling out of contention for your league's playoffs in the next four to six weeks.
On the other hand, if you play in a 10-team league where six teams make the playoffs, it becomes much easier to hold onto Westbrook and still retain a good chance of making the playoffs, where Westbrook can give you a big advantage.
Do you have a question about what to do with Westbrook in your league? Please leave a comment below, or contact me on twitter @MarcFRoberts.
