This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Friday's featured NBA slate begins at 7:00 PM Eastern time and includes five games. The Thunder are finishing up a back-to-back, while the 76ers, Bucks and Warriors all played on Christmas and the other six teams have all been off since Monday at the latest. Two of the games list much higher over/unders than the other three, so expect most lineups to be crafted primarily using players from those two contests.
Slate Overview
Games to Target
Bucks (-11.5) at Hawks O/U: 237.5
This one could get ugly for the home side, as Atlanta gives up the second-most points per game at 118.6 while Milwaukee scores a league-high 120.2. Bucks' stacks will likely be the prevailing strategy in this slate.
Suns (-3) at Warriors O/U: 224.5
Expect plenty of good looks for both teams in this one, as the Suns are allowing 115.5 points per game and the Warriors are giving up 113.0. Phoenix has been the far better offensive team with 114.7 points per game to Golden State's 105.2, but there are enticing fantasy options to be found on both sides here.
Games to Fade
76ers (-3) at Magic O/U: 210
This clash features two of the five teams allowing 105.0 or fewer points per game, so offense will be hard to come by. A Philadelphia team that's hanging around the league average in scoring should be able to get by somewhat, but Orlando's 103.5 points per game have them second-fewest in the league, so just breaking triple-digits will be a challenge.
Thunder (-3) at Hornets O/U: 210
Both of these offenses rank in the bottom-10, with the Thunder at 108.8 points per game and the Hornets at 104.2. Considering neither defense is particularly generous — both ranking around league average — this is likely to be a low-scoring affair. That said, there could be some value here in the middle and lower parts of the price spectrum.
Positional Breakdown
Point guard represents the deepest position, with six healthy options priced over $7,000, while center sits comes in with five. As usual, the UTIL spot in most lineups should feature a player from one of those two positions. Shooting guard possesses the least depth with nobody priced over $8,000 while every other position has at least two such players, but there are still some nice options to choose from at that position thanks to favorable matchups.
Injury Situations to Monitor
Giannis Antetokounmpo is probable for the Bucks, as he's dealing with back soreness.
Deandre Ayton (ankle) will sit out a fourth straight game for the Suns.
Malcolm Brogdon (groin) is a game-time decision for the Pacers after missing the team's previous game Monday.
P.J. Washington (finger) is expected to make his return for the Hornets after missing the team's previous five games.
Phoenix's Kelly Oubre Jr. picked up a minor groin injury Monday but is expected to play through it.
Elite Players
Antetokounmpo ($11,300) has by far the highest ceiling in this slate, but his floor is lower than usual considering the strong possibility of Milwaukee getting up big and resting its star player to help alleviate his back soreness.
Trae Young ($10,800) is on a tremendous run, having scored at least 61.0 fantasy points in three of his past four games. Expect him to populate plenty of GPP lineups given the potential limitations on Giannis.
Joel Embiid ($9,700) has been hot himself with 55.8 fantasy points or more in four of his last seven games, but reaching that mark won't be easy against the defensively oriented Magic.
Bam Adebayo ($8,900) hasn't reached the level of the more expensive options above him, but he has started to consistently get close thanks to a well-rounded skill set that allows him to cover for off nights in any particular category. Miami's breakout stud has scored at least 48.3 fantasy points in seven of the past nine games and will take on a Pacers' team that's struggled to contain centers.
Expected Chalk
Khris Middleton ($7,000) is averaging a well-rounded 22.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.7 steals and 0.7 blocks over the past three games. His 31-point outburst on Christmas showed that Milwaukee's second-best player is capable of carrying the offense when called upon, and Middleton will be relied upon to take much of the load off Giannis against the porous Atlanta defense.
Ricky Rubio's ($7,100) ability to stuff the stat sheet makes him a superb choice against a leaky Warriors' defense that's surrendering 113.0 points per game. Phoenix's point guard has been fantastic over the past 10 games, missing one due to an illness while averaging 16.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 11.3 RPG in the other nine. With Ayton out and Devin Booker still struggling to find his form since returning from a forearm injury, the offense should run through Rubio's passing.
Damion Lee ($5,900) was the star of Golden State's Christmas upset of the Rockets, delivering 22 points, 15 rebounds and four assists. That outstanding performance was the exclamation point on a strong six-game stretch in which Lee has averaged 15.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG and 3.2 APG. The Warriors should continue to lean on him against Phoenix's generous defense.
Steven Adams ($6,200) is sitting just below a double-double for the season with 11.6 PPG and 9.7 RPG. Even with the Thunder closing out a back-to-back, those who opt not to pay up for one of the more expensive centers should be happy settling for Adams against a Hornets' team whose weakness is stopping the center position.
Key Values
The Heat have made life difficult for opposing guards, but Indiana's Aaron Holiday ($5,400) will still be worth a look if Brogdon sits. Holiday filled in admirably for Brogdon in Monday's win over Toronto, finishing with 19 points and 10 assists in 31 minutes.
The Hornets have been off since Sunday but Terry Rozier ($6,500) was hot before this little break, pouring in 26.0 PPG in his last three games. Given the guard's serviceable contributions in other categories, Rozier is primed to take advantage of his team's edge in freshness against a Thunder team that's playing its second game in as many nights.
Bismack Biyombo ($4,600) has recently played most of Charlotte's center minutes over Cody Zeller. Biyombo's floor is low, but he's capable of contributing a nice mix of points, blocks and rebounds on a good night. At just $4,600, he could provide a bargain for those looking to fill a roster spot for cheap.
