This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
MEM vs. GS (-4.5), O/U: 221
The most important thing to remember about these playoff games is that teams play condensed rotations. The Warriors used eight players on Wednesday as Curry, Wiggins and Green saw 40 minutes while the other five played low-to-mid 20s. I'd expect something similar tonight with the exception of a possible bump to Kevon Looney as the Warriors will need him in the middle to deal with Jonas Valanciunas. On the Grizzlies side, Ja Morant, Valanciunas and Dillon Brooks played 40 minutes while Desmond Bane was the only reserve to see more than 12 in Wednesday's win over the Spurs. That's only six players that saw significant run. It's also worth noting the teams just played each other on Sunday in a game that meant something and the minutes looked similar. The Warriors used the same eight players while the Grizzlies giving De'Anthony Melton 21 minutes off the bench was the only significant difference from Wednesday's rotation. These players will be the focus tonight and rightfully so. A good way to differentiate would be to plan for a blowout and roster some of the less popular cheaper options that offer upside in garbage time. Rostering a value player in the captain spot represents another decent option as we just saw Daniel Gafford optimal at 2.3 percent last night.
Injuries to Monitor
Kelly Oubre (wrist): OUT
Oubre hasn't played since Apr. 27th and will be reevaluated next week. Kent Bazemore has been starting in his absence while Juan Toscano-Anderson has seen an expanded role off the bench.
Elite Players
Stephen Curry ($11,400)
Curry is coming off 50.25 DK points in Wednesday's loss to the Lakers. Tonight's matchup against the Grizzlies is a much better spot as he just torched them for 73.25 fantasy points on Sunday. Curry's salary is too low in relation to the other players on the slate. I don't see any way of fading him unless you're predicting a Memphis blowout.
Jonas Valanciunas ($10,000)
Valanciunas put up 60.75 DK points on Wednesday as he topped 45 for the sixth consecutive outing. He scored 29 points and grabbed 16 rebounds over 36 minutes on his way to 53.5 DK points during their last meeting Sunday. It's a favorable matchup for Valanciunas as the Warriors lack the size to deal with big centers.
Ja Morant ($9,400)
Morant produced 37.5 DK points across 41 minutes on Wednesday. He's taken 20-plus shots in consecutive games and the big minutes are encouraging, but his salary is a bit too close to that of Curry and Valanciunas. Morant makes for a good leverage play in tournaments as I'd expect him to be the least popular of this group by a significant margin.
Expected Chalk
Stephen Curry ($11,400)
Curry is clearly the best spend-up option from a raw points perspective and his salary isn't as high as it should be in relation to the slate as a whole. Not to mention the salaries of Valanciunas and Morant are slightly inflated and Curry is coming off 73.25 DK points against the Grizzlies on Sunday. I fully expect all of these factors to contribute in him being the most popular player.
Value Picks
Draymond Green ($8,800)
Green is averaging over 10 assists per game in his last five and just posted a 14/8/9 line and 42 DK points when the Warriors played the Grizzlies on Sunday. The triple-double upside makes him one of the best plays on the slate.
Andrew Wiggins ($8,200)
Wiggins should see upwards of 40 minutes and take around 20 shots tonight. He put up 39 DK points against the Grizzlies on Sunday and he's really the only bonafide scorer the Warriors have besides Curry.
Dillon Brooks ($7,600)
Brooks has taken 20-plus shots in five consecutive appearances and saw 40 minutes in Wednesday's win over the Spurs. He's also managed 35-plus fantasy in four of his last five. I'd expect similar numbers tonight and that makes Brooks one of the more appealing value plays.
Jordan Poole ($5,400)
Poole played the entire second and fourth quarters in Wednesday's game against the Lakers. There isn't much for cheap value tonight and his scoring upside makes him worth the risk for tournaments.
Kevon Looney ($4,600)
Looney grabbed 13 rebounds and counted 27.75 DK points in 20 minutes against the Lakers. He played 31 minutes against the Grizzlies on Sunday as the Warriors needed a big body to defend Valanciunas. I'd expect Looney to be the most popular of the value options.
