This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Team Analysis
Offense to Use:
Houston Rockets vs. Indiana Pacers
It's rare that a seven-game slate in the NBA has as many over/under's this low. Luckily, the Rockets take on the Pacers at home, and with the addition of Lou Williams, Houston has somehow improved on offense. The Rockets have scored 129 and 142 points in two games with Williams, with eight players scoring in double figures against the T-Wolves on Saturday. Outside of James Harden ($12,000), there isn't another Houston player over $6,000, making the Rockets an enticing stack option.
Defense to Avoid:
Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat
The last time the Mavericks played the Heat, Miami won 99-95, so it wasn't the greatest outcome in terms of fantasy output. Dallas has held four of its past five opponents to under 100 points, and Miami doesn't have any players that are incredibly imposing on offense. There aren't enough appealing DFS options from either team in this game, so it's probably best that you just stay away from it altogether.
Teams on Back-to-Backs:
First game: Warriors
Second game: Bucks, Raptors, Celtics
DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Darren Collison, PG/SG, SAC vs. MIN ($6,300): After the exodus of Boogie Cousins, the Kings were left with very little in terms of viable DFS options — except Collsion, as he is the last remaining shred of hope for respective owners. His price has plummeted since the trade, going from $7,400 after the All-Star break down $1,100 to his current tag. The T-Wolves are an enticing matchup and Collison's home/road splits are equally as enticing in this situation. He's averaging 4.2 more DKFP at home than on the road.
Lou Williams, PG/SG, HOU vs. IND ($5,400): There really isn't any reason not to play Williams in any format. He's on arguably the highest-powered offense in the NBA after being traded by the Lakers, where he was averaging 18.6 points per game off the bench. His price tag is never going to get too hefty to handle and he's got the upside to go off for 20-plus points in each game. In two games against the Pacers this season, Williams has averaged 23.0 points while shooting 43.8 percent from the 3-point range.
Nik Stauskas, SG, PHI vs. GS ($3,800): If you're looking for a decent punt-play in tournaments, Stauskas make sense. He's cheap, has scored in double figures in seven straight and has an appealing game script. The 76ers are going to have to shoot the ball a lot to keep up with the Warriors, and that's exactly what Staukus does. He hasn't done that particularly well lately, but it's more of a quantity over quality situation. It helps that Staukus is shooting 40.2% from distance at home.
Dario Saric, PF, PHI vs. GS ($7,600): Saric has been a hot DFS commodity with Nerlens Noel on the Mavericks and Joel Embiid sidelined. The 76ers frontcourt is essentially being anchored by Saric, who has at least 11 boards in four straight games. He's gone seven straight with at least 18 points and has a combined 16 assists in the past five. Saric's 3-point shooting percentage could use improvement, but against the Warriors he should see a higher volume of shots.
Gorgui Dieng, PF/C, MIN at SAC ($5,500): The Kings were already one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA prior to trading DeMarcus Cousins to the Pelicans. Now, with Boogie and Matt Barnes off the roster, the T-Wolves (and particularly Dieng) should have a field day on the glass. He's coming off one of his better performances of the season with 16 points, 13 rebounds and four steals vs. the Rockets in a barn-burner. This game won't reach the score of Minnesota's last (a combined 272 points), but it should be higher than most. Dieng also has upside for multiple steals with the Kings turning the ball over 14.1 times per game.
Thaddeus Young, PF, IND at HOU ($4,900): Young has already had two games to get back to where he was prior to injuring his wrist. That eight-game layoff left his price tag in DFS extremely low, but he's got a decent chance of outperforming his salary vs. the Rockets. Indiana will need to keep pace with Houston or try to slow the pace down, both of which would play well for Young, who has at least five boards and has averaged 2.6 steals per game in his past 10.
Serge Ibaka, PF/C, TOR at NY ($6,200): Ibaka registered his first double-double as a Raptor (18 points, 10 rebounds) in a win vs. the Trail Blazers on Sunday. He also added a pair of threes, a few assists and steals for 41.5 DKFP, his highest total in the past seven games. In two games against the Knicks this season, Ibaka has averaged 22.5 points and 8.0 rebounds while shooting 52.6 percent from the field. He'll have a much easier time should Kristaps Porzingis remain sidelined, though he's shot the ball slightly better on the road anyway (50.8% from the field).
Willie Cauley-Stein, SAC vs. MIN ($5,100): The Kings' depleted roster has already been well documented in this piece, so there's no need to beat a dead horse here. Cauley-Stein is a bit boom-or-bust, but we saw what that boom can look like after a 29-point, 10-rebound outburst Thursday against the Nuggets. We know Cauley-Stein will get big minutes off the bench with Sacramento wanting to showcase its young talent more often (he's averaging 31.5 minutes in two games since the All-Star break). The T-Wolves just got torched for 142 points by the Rockets and are allowing 105.9 PPG on the road.
Zaza Pachulia, GS at PHI ($3,900): Towards the bottom of the salary bin, it's usually a good idea to target players that can benefit from a lopsided game script. Pachulia could be the benefactor of not only that, but the absence of Kevin Durant (hand). Should KD sit, Pachulia will likely get increased minutes. He also could see extra time if the Warriors run away with the game, giving Draymond Green some rest. Pachulia has been decent his past three games, scoring at least 22.0 DKFP in each while putting up five blocks and five steals in that span.
