This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
Philadelphia (-13) at Orlando (o/u 223)
Indiana at Atlanta (-11) (o/u 236)
Memphis (-12.5) at Oklahoma City (o/u 229.5)
Houston at New Orleans (-5.5) (o/u 227.5)
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix (-8.5) (o/u 227)
This isn't the most appealing slate in terms of competitiveness with three of the matchups listing double-digit point spreads. In terms of games to target, Indiana-Atlanta stands out due to a 236 projection. Though Atlanta is a heavy favorite, they're a decent bet to have starters still play plenty of minutes given their current playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference. Houston-New Orleans is the other matchup to focus in on given the relatively close total to the other matchups as well as a tighter point spread between the teams.
Injury Situations to Monitor
Jalen Suggs, ORL (ankle): questionable
Suggs has played in two consecutive games since returning from the ankle injury, so he's likely to be available Sunday unless he suffers a setback.
Mo Bamba, ORL (calf): questionable
If Bamba is unavailable, Moritz Wagner should be in line for an increased role and is only $3,900.
Lance Stephenson, IND (ankle)
Stephenson has missed each of Indiana's last three games, though his status for Sunday is unclear because Indiana also played Saturday.
John Collins, ATL (finger/foot): questionable
Collins is battling a pair of injuries. If he can't take the floor, Danilo Gallinari is likely to see an increased role.
Dillon Brooks, MEM (ankle): questionable
Brooks hasn't played since Feb. 8, but is expected to return at some point within the next few games. He isn't likely to immediately return to a full workload.
Tre Mann, OKC (ankle)
Mann looks unlikely to play after missing Wednesday's game and failing to practice Saturday. Lindy Waters started and played 28 minutes in Mann's absence, and he would probably benefit again.
Malik Monk, LAL (shoulder): probable
Monk has been on the injury report for the last few games, but he's played through his shoulder issue. That appears likely to continue Sunday.
Talen Horton-Tucker, LAL (ankle): questionable
Horton-Tucker has played through his ankle injury of late, so expect him to suit up Sunday unless there is news to the contrary.
LeBron James, LAL (knee): questionable
James has played very effectively through the knee injury and that's expected to continue Sunday.
Other Notable Injuries
Danny Green, PHI (finger): out
Malcolm Brogdon, IND (concussion): out
Josh Giddey, OKC (hip): out
Kenrich Williams, OKC (knee): out
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, OKC (foot): out
Derrick Favors, OKC (back): out
CJ McCollum, NOR (COVID-19 protocols): out
Brandon Ingram, NOR (hamstring): out
Cameron Johnson, PHO (quadriceps): out
Elite Players
Joel Embiid ($12,000) has played well since James Harden ($11,000) has debuted for Philadelphia. However, he's failed to top 60 DK points in five of his seven games with Harden. That combined with the potential for Embiid to have his minutes reduced due to a blowout may make it hard for him to reach value.
Similarly, Harden has seen his performance decline in recent games in large part due to poor shooting. He should have the chance to turn that around Sunday and he makes for a better value compared to Embiid at a lower salary point. Even so, there are other elites I'd rather build around in cash contests as the risk of limited minutes due to a blowout remains.
LeBron James ($11,800) has responded to the Lakers' poor form with very strong individual performances. He's among the building block options in cash games on the slate, even given Phoenix's strong defense.
Ja Morant ($10,400) is capable of returning value at this salary. However, the Grizzlies have been aggressive in limiting his court time in blowout wins. Two recent examples of this came on Mar. 5 against Orlando and three days later against New Orleans where he logged 28 and 27 minutes. With Memphis a considerable favorite over OKC, there's a significant danger Morant will fail to hit 30 Sunday.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has shown a safe floor of over 45 DK in recent games, but he's also paired that with plenty of upside. Sunday may not be the spot for a blowup performance given a fairly strong Grizzlies defense, though he's a relatively safe floor play.
Trae Young ($10,100) should also be a strong consideration with the Hawks motivated to ensure a victory over a weak opponent given their current position in the standings. This matchup also boasts by far the highest total of the slate, so Young should be in position for a big performance.
Expected Chalk
Tyrese Haliburton ($9,000) hasn't needed any substantial help to produce exceptionally of late. But with Brogdon absent, he should maintain the extra usage he compiled Saturday. The offensive environment of the Atlanta-Indiana matchup is projected to be excellent, so all signs point to productive game for Haliburton.
Lindy Waters III ($3,400) has seen his salary slightly increase, but still not to the point where it aligns with his role assuming Tre Mann remains out. Waters earned 25 and 28 minutes in his last two games while surpassing 20 DK on each occasion.
Devonte' Graham ($6,100) has predictably seen his salary tick up with McCollum sidelined, though he's another example of value not meeting the expected role. In 34 minutes against Charlotte, Graham posted 40.5 DK. On Sunday, he'll get another strong matchup and will maintain his expanded opportunity.
Depending on the statuses of Lance Stephenson and John Collins, both Danilo Gallinari ($4,500) and Chris Duarte ($4,800) will likely both be in a position to see increased roles. Gallinari in particular will be a popular play, but Duarte should also get plenty of attention with both Brogdon and Stephenson sidelined.
Value Plays
Buddy Hield ($7,600) will be another beneficiary if there are extensive absences in Indiana's rotation. He's less likely to be chalk because his salary is high, but he should be Indiana's second-best offensive option behind Haliburton.
Jalen Green ($5,300) remains inconsistent, but he's displayed the upside to blast past value. The Houston-New Orleans matchup represents the slate's second-most appealing based on game total and projected competitiveness, so Green is in a good spot to produce.
Assuming health, Malik Monk ($5,800) also has a puzzling value considering he's exceeded 30 DK points in each of his last four games, yet his salary has consistently checked in at either $5,700 or $5,800. One word of caution is Phoenix's strong defense, though the intersection of role and value makes Monk an appealing option.
