This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
Hawks at Heat (-6.5) (o/u 218.5)
Nets at Celtics (-4) (o/u 225)
Bulls at Bucks (-10) (o/u 229.5)
Pelicans at Suns (-10) (o/u 225)
Silly season is behind us, so it's no surprise to see some tighter projected betting lines. While the Hawks-Heat lists the lowest projected total, Miami should be able to get plenty of good looks thanks to Atlanta's poor defense. That will be an area to attack on the slate and will be a theme of the article. Other standout places to look for value appear to be Phoenix and Milwaukee, who offer the highest implied team totals on Sunday.
Injury Situations to Monitor
John Collins, ATL (finger): questionable
Collins has been out since mid-March and his return would provide a massive boost to a Hawks' frontcourt that is already missing Clint Capela.
Gabe Vincent, MIA (toe): probable
Vincent is likely to play, though he was limited to high-teens minutes to close the season.
P.J. Tucker, MIA (calf): questionable
Though officially questionable, Tucker has declared that he'll be ready for Game 1.
Markieff Morris, MIA (hip): questionable
Morris missed seven of Miami's last eight games. If he remains out, Duncan Robinson should benefit.
Dewayne Dedmon, MIA (ankle): questionable
Dedmon missed three of the last four regular-season outings. There have been no updates, but Omer Yurtseven should operate as the backup center if Dedmon can't go.
Landry Shamet, PHO (foot): questionable
Shamet missed Friday's practice and the team has called him day-to-day. That casts a pessimistic tone over his availability. If Shamet is out, Cameron Johnson and Aaron Holiday figure to benefit.
Other Notable Injuries
Clint Capela, ATL (knee): out
Lou Williams, ATL (back): out
Robert Williams, BOS (knee): out
Elite Players
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000) is the most expensive player on the slate and in a great position to produce. The Bucks enter as heavy favorites and have the highest implied team total Sunday. Antetokounmpo regularly had his minutes limited late in the season, but that is far less likely to occur with more on the line.
Jayson Tatum ($10,000) represents a strong cash game option. He ended the campaign with a consistent floor of 45 DK points, yet his salary remained modest relative to other studs. The Nets were a bottom-third team in defensive rating during the regular season. And while defensive intensity will tick up during the postseason, Tatum should comfortably be able to run the Boston offense.
Devin Booker ($9,000) is an intriguing play for many of the same reasons as Antetokounmpo. Phoenix is a heavy favorite with a high game total. The Pelicans were a mid-tier defensive team, though they also had to play Friday while Phoenix has been off for a week.
Expected Chalk
The Hawks are in a tough spot in their first-round matchup against the Heat, but Onyeka Okongwu ($5,100) is in a prime spot based on his salary point. He grabbed nine boards in the play-in game against Cleveland after Capela exited. With John Collins also questionable, Okongwu will be needed for a large role on Sunday but is not valued that way.
Flipping to the other side of that matchup, Jimmy Butler ($8,400) stands out as a strong selection. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him reach 40 minutes now that we've reached the postseason, and the Hawks are the worst defensive team in the postseason as measured by defensive rating.
Jae Crowder ($4,200) enters as the lowest-salaried Suns player who is a regular in the rotation. Like all other teams, Phoenix is likely to shorten their rotation and prioritize its best players. That should benefit Crowder, who will project well and therefore be a popular play.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,400) took on a key role in the Hawks' victory over Cleveland in the play-in game by posting 35 DK. If both Capela and Collins are ruled out, Bogdanovic will elevate into the secondary playmaker role behind Trae Young.
Value Plays
Alex Caruso ($4,200) was limited down the stretch of the regular season and missed the final few regular season games. He's a strong bet to log 30 minutes, so he should get enough playing time and filler stats to reach value on the slate even as a peripheral scorer.
Kyle Lowry ($6,000) is buried among point guards from a salary perspective, but he should see a boost in minutes as there's no point to protect his workload anymore. To keep with the theme, the Hawks are a poor defensive team, thereby making most Heat players desirable targets Sunday.
Brook Lopez ($4,600) played limited minutes throughout the regular season, but those limitations should be gone now. The Bucks boast the slate's best implied team total, so looking to play cheap Milwaukee players with a guaranteed role is nice way to fill out roster slots.
