This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
BOS vs. BKN (-9.5), O/U: 227
LAL (-1.5) vs. PHX, O/U: 208.5
DAL vs. LAC (-6.5), O/U: 216
First, a few things about last night: Michael Porter (80%), Jimmy Butler (70%) and Jusuf Nurkic (70%) ended up extremely chalky and they all failed miserably. Those were the percentages in the $100 single-entry but they were similar across all contests. Austin Rivers was the popular punt but he busted, while Monte Morris and Paul Millsap smashed. I'm saying this just as much for myself after getting a grand total of $0 back. It pays to get off the chalk. The winning lineup in the main GPP that had 29,411 entries took solo first by a massive 27-point margin! The various winning lineups in the single-entry tournaments featured the likes of Brook Lopez, Kendrick Nunn and Andre Iguodala, none of whom topped 16 fantasy points. Take some chances, make lineups that correlate, plan for specific scenarios, and don't worry as much about projections.
At first glance, the LAL-PHX matchup might seem like one to fade based on its projected low total, but it's also possible that it's the only game that stays competitive. We've seen blowouts wreck slates recently and while I'm not someone who normally plans for them, making that adjustment is a viable strategy on smaller slates. The lower total isn't as concerning in the playoffs as teams play tighter rotations and the stars get usage bumps, making it possible for them to smash even if the game doesn't become a shootout.
If the Celtics can stay competitive, and that's a tall order, then the matchup against the Nets is probably the best spot on the slate. It makes sense to roster players from both teams in that scenario.
Kawhi Leonard ($8,300) seems tough to avoid. His salary is significantly discounted and the Clippers need a win to even the series before they travel to Dallas.
Injuries to Monitor
LeBron James (ankle) and Anthony Davis (shoulder): PROBABLE
James and Davis have questionable tags on just about every slate but there are no new injuries and both are expected to play.
Elite Players
Guard:
James Harden ($10,200)
Harden put up 53.75 DK points in 36 minutes Saturday in the Nets' Game 1 win over the Celtics. He only attempted 13 shots but still finished with a stellar fantasy point total thanks to nine rebounds, four steals and a block. There are plenty of good ways to spend salary tonight though, and rostering Harden when Durant and Kyrie are healthy isn't something I'm normally looking to do.
PG/SF:
Luka Doncic ($10,600)
Doncic is coming off a big triple-double that helped him score 71.5 DK points in Saturday's win over the Clippers. He played 41 minutes and got as much usage as he wanted, and I'd expect similar tonight if the game stays close. He's one of my preferred spend-up options on the slate from a raw points perspective.
LeBron James ($10,100)
James put up an 18/7/10 line that saw him score 48.25 DK points in Saturday's loss to the Suns. Phoenix is a team I've looked to avoid this season but LeBron should see upwards of 40 minutes and has triple-double upside in any matchup. The PHX-LAL matchup has the lowest total on the slate but also the closest spread, so I definitely have interest.
Center:
Anthony Davis ($9,600)
Davis is coming off a 30.75 DK point dud in Saturday's loss to the Suns. He didn't have many big games all season when LeBron was in the lineup. Davis' salary has come down and he likely won't be popular so that makes him appealing, but I'll be looking elsewhere to spend salary.
Forward:
Jayson Tatum ($9,800)
Tatum shot just 6-20 on his way to a disappointing 35.75 DK points despite seeing 41 minutes in Saturday's loss to the Nets. People like to say that matchup doesn't matter, but Kevin Durant is one of the best defenders in the league. Something to keep in mind though: for the Celtics to keep this game competitive, Tatum almost has to play well. If you're targeting spend-up options from the Nets, you're looking for a high-scoring, close game in order to pay off the expensive salaries. So if the Nets make value, there is a good chance the Celtics do too.
Kevin Durant ($9,300)
Durant had 32 points and 12 rebounds in 39 minutes Saturday as he put up 52.5 DK points. He attempted 25 shots, including eight three-pointers. His salary is still quite depressed and the Nets have the highest implied team total tonight. That makes him one of the more appealing spend-up options on the slate.
Expected Chalk
Kawhi Leonard ($8,300)
Leonard played 41 minutes and put up 56 DK points in Saturday's loss to the Mavericks. His salary is still much too cheap, as it's reflective of him playing limited minutes in the final weeks of the season. The playoffs hardly resemble the regular season though, and tonight is close to a must win for the Clippers after dropping Game 1. He should see 40 minutes and get all the usage he wants. I'd expect him to be the most popular of all the mid-range options.
Value Picks
Devin Booker ($8,100)
Booker torched the Lakers on Sunday with a 34/7/8 line on his way to 55.25 DK points. He played a whopping 45 minutes. This salary is just too cheap for that type of projected run and usage.
Paul George ($8,000)
George is coming off a rather pedestrian 39.5 DK points Sunday despite playing 40 minutes. His salary had climbed all the way to $10,000 on May 1, but that was without Kawhi in the lineup and he hasn't had a big game since. George's current salary is too cheap however, especially as he's likely to see 40-plus minutes again with the Clippers needing a win. He could go somewhat overlooked based on the recent underwhelming box scores.
Deandre Ayton ($6,100)
Ayton has inexplicably seen his salary fall to its lowest point in 10 games despite playing 37 minutes and putting up a big double-double in Sunday's win over the Lakers. He will be popular, and rightfully so.
Robert Williams ($4,600)
Williams put up 43.75 DK points in just 23 minutes Saturday thanks in large part to nine blocked shots. He's another player whose salary has reached a 10-game low. I'd almost prefer him to come off the bench again because if he starts, he's going to be chalky. Either way he should be good value as the Nets have given up big fantasy points all season to opposing centers.
Jabari Parker ($3,000)
Parker rather surprisingly played 22 minutes in Game 1 on Saturday. The minutes are definitely not safe but the minimum salary makes rostering him well worth the risk. Recency bias and the lack of cheap value on the slate should lead to him being somewhat popular.
