This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
BOS vs. BKN (-12.5), O/U: 232
POR vs. DEN (-1.5), O/U: 226
LAL vs. PHX (-5), O/U: 207.5
The status of Anthony Davis will have a major impact on tonight's slate. If he sits, the LAL-PHX matchup becomes a very appealing target despite its low total. Every viable Laker can be rostered at a significant discount while there are a few favorable salaries on the Suns side as well.
Otherwise, the POR-DEN matchup look likes the best target on the slate based on spread and total. There's a decent chance that it's the only game that's competitive in the fourth quarter. Nikola Jokic looks awfully good at his salary.
I think it's reasonable to just fade the elite options from the BOS-BKN matchup on the assumption it'll be a blowout. However, I'll definitely have interest in the cheap Celtics who are likely to benefit from said blowout. If you think the game stays close, it would be the best environment on the slate from a fantasy perspective and the likes of Jayson Tatum and the Nets' Big Three would all be great options.
Injuries to Monitor
Anthony Davis (groin): QUESTIONABLE
Davis is considered day-to-day after being diagnosed with a strained groin. It seems as though he's going to miss tonight's game based on the spread and if that's the case, Kyle Kuzma would likely get the start in his absence.
Kemba Walker (knee): DOUBTFUL
Walker missed Sunday's game and isn't likely to play tonight either. Romeo Langford got the start while Payton Pritchard and Aaron Nesmith saw extra minutes off the bench.
Robert Williams (ankle): DOUBTFUL
Williams missed Sunday's game after spraining his ankle in Game 3 and will likely sit out again. Tristan Thompson started at center while Grant Williams and Jabari Parker saw extended run off the bench.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (knee): QUESTIONABLE
Caldwell-Pope missed Sunday's game due to a lingering knee injury and said that he's questionable for tonight. Wesley Matthews started at shooting guard in his place.
Elite Players
Guard:
James Harden ($10,600)
Harden has put up 70.75 and 63.75 fantasy points in consecutive games while seeing 40 minutes in each. He dished out a whopping 18 assists in Game 4 on Sunday. Tonight's matchup has a 12.5 point spread, and that has me a bit worried about his minutes. Of course Harden can still make value if the Nets build a huge lead over three quarters, but I'm ideally looking for 70-plus DK points and limited run lessens that potential.
G/F:
LeBron James ($9,800)
If AD is out, LeBron would be my preferred spend-up option. He would need to carry the Lakers if they're going to stay competitive in Phoenix. He has serious triple-double upside in these spots and can be rostered for a bit of a discount. I'd expect him to be popular.
Center:
Nikola Jokic ($10,400)
Jokic is coming off a 28.25 fantasy point dud in Saturday's blowout loss. He had scored 55-plus DK points in each of the first three games of the series and I'd expect the Nuggets to bounce back at home. This salary feels too low after seeing him valued at $11,000 for the majority of the season.
Forward:
Kevin Durant ($10,200)
Durant torched the Celtics on Sunday, as he needed just 20 shot attempts to post a 42/4/5 line on his way to 61.5 DK points. It was his second consecutive game seeing 40 minutes and putting up 60-plus DK points. Similar to Harden, my only concern is the potential for limited minutes with the Nets likely to win comfortably.
Jayson Tatum ($10,000)
Tatum had another big game Sunday as he went 17-17 from the line to help post a 40/7/5 line and 62.75 DK points. He will have to carry the Celtics again as they're likely to be without Walker. I definitely have interest, but I wouldn't roster him without one of the Nets' Big Three in that lineup as well.
Expected Chalk
Chris Paul ($6,600)
DFS is funny sometimes in the way that a player can go from almost unplayable to massively popular in the span of one game, and that's what's happened with Paul. He was a game-time decision Sunday due a shoulder injury that was noticeably bothering him in the first three games of the series. Basically no one rostered him when he put up 41.25 DK points in 32 minutes as the Suns pulled off the upset. Tonight they are five-point favorites with Davis unlikely to play, and Paul's salary is still suppressed. He was all the way up to $8,200 on May 15, so it's surprising to see him this low. I'd expect all this leads to him being relatively chalky, especially considering LeBron will be a popular play in the same game.
Value Picks
Deandre Ayton ($7,400)
Ayton has recorded double-doubles in all four games of the series and topped 40 DK points in three of them. He grabbed 17 rebounds last time out and he continues to see 40 minutes per night. The salary bump was warranted.
Norman Powell ($5,600)
Powell is coming off 40.5 DK points in Saturday's win as he played well for the second consecutive game. His salary is affordable and tonight's matchup against the Nuggets is arguably the best spot on the slate.
Andre Drummond ($5,200), if Davis is out
Drummond should get a bump in minutes and usage in the absence of Davis. His salary has fallen to its lowest point in 10 games and he has considerable upside if he sees 25 or more minutes. In Game 2, he put up a double-double in 24 minutes that helped him to 36.5 DK points.
Jae Crowder ($4,700)
Crowder is coming off 39.25 fantasy points in 35 minutes last time out. He would have done better in the first three games of the series had he not gone 2-20 from three-point range, but the attempts are still encouraging. 30-plus minutes for $4,700 is appealing as well.
Kyle Kuzma ($4,600), if Davis is out
Kuzma is expected to get the start if Davis sits, and the Lakers would rely on him to take some of the scoring burden away from LeBron. His salary has dropped to its lowest point in 10 games and he has 40-plus fantasy point upside in these spots.
Payton Pritchard ($3,200)
Pritchard put up 21.5 DK points in 24 minutes off the bench as he saw extended run in the absence of Kemba on Sunday. Walker is expected to be out again and Pritchard should see plenty of minutes to pay off such a cheap salary.
