This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
This should be an interesting weekend on DraftKings, as it looks like the vast majority of the top value plays will be at the point guard, shooting guard and center positions. The last of those is especially intriguing, with a slew of sub-$5000 options supplemented by some favorable choices on the higher end.
As has been the case for much of this season, the attractive options at small forward are few and far between. Power forward looks to be somewhere in the middle, with a bunch of solid choices but no obviously excellent values.
In any case, we'll start with Friday's slate, where a matchup between the Pacers and Celtics offers no shortage of potential value plays.
All of C.J. Watson, Rodney Stuckey, Roy Hibbert and Ian Mahinmi are considered questionable for the game, with Hibbert and Mahinmi seeming least likely to play. Should both centers sit, Lavoy Allen ($3800) will likely approach 30 minutes in a favorable matchup, making him arguably Friday's top option. Allen is averaging 20.1 DraftKings points over 22.3 minutes this season, and he saw 33 minutes in Wednesday's loss to the Warriors, with Hibbert (ankle) limited to just six minutes. Luis Scola ($4400) and, to a lesser extent, David West ($6300) would also get a boost.
Out on the wing, C.J. Miles ($4900) and Solomon Hill ($4000) stand to benefit if either Watson or Stuckey misses Friday's game, as both could potentially crack 35 minutes. Hill's actually a mediocre option in any scenario, given that he's averaging 21.9 DK points over 32.1 minutes this season, with his playing time fairly stable. Miles offers the higher ceiling in the event of a Watson or Stuckey absence, but otherwise might only get 25 minutes or so. And, while Stuckey is more likely to miss the game, a Watson absence would make Donald Sloan ($4400) one of Friday's top plays. Further adding to the appeal of Indiana's players, Saturday brings another favorable matchup, against the 76ers in Philadelphia.
Looking at the other side of Friday's game, Boston provides a few nice options, despite sporting a healthy roster. Tyler Zeller ($4200) is the one that really stands out, with two showings of 35 DraftKings points in his last four games. While the Celtics' rotation is obviously difficult to place any faith in, Zeller was excellent in Wednesday's win over the Nets, and coach Brad Stevens mentioned afterward that the team was very successful while surprisingly playing through Zeller in the post.
A revived Jared Sullinger ($6400) is also intriguing against the banged-up Indiana frontcourt, if you don't mind spending more than $6000 on a player capable of providing fewer than 15 DK points in any given game. Sullinger has three showings of 43 or more DK points in his last five outings, with 23 and 15.5 points in the other two games. Also intriguing is an ice-cold Jeff Green ($5400), who carries what has to be his lowest price of the season.
While we're on the topic of Brad Stevens' rotations, it occurred to me that a DFS site could probably fill a $10 million guaranteed contest for a cage fight featuring Brad Stevens, Jason Kidd, Stan Van Gundy and a bunch of wild animals. A big-cat stack would be the popular and obvious choice, but the great apes could probably do some damage.
Anyway, Saturday should feature another contest with tons of value options, as the Hornets and Knicks will play a surely thrilling game at Madison Square Garden. I'm not even going to bother with specifics for the Knicks, as they have zero sure-thing options on the roster, with about five or six viable punt plays. Quincy Acy is probably the safest of the bunch, assuming his price tag stays south of $4500. Just keep in mind that the Knicks leaned on their backups during the fourth quarter of Thursday's blowout loss to the Rockets, leading to an unusual box score in which every New York reserve played more minutes than every starter. Of course, the same thing could easily happen again, as Kemba Walker and eight D-League players would probably be favored against the Knicks.
The Hornets offer some obvious options, especially if Cody Zeller (shoulder) misses another game. Using a nine-man rotation during Thursday's surprising win in Toronto, Hornets coach Steve Clifford allotted 38 minutes to both Gerald Henderson and Marvin Williams, while Walker went north of 40 for a fourth time in the last eight games. Walker figures to destroy the Knicks, and he should offer excellent upside, even if the price goes into five figures. Also, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist gets a boost if Zeller misses another game, though not to the same extent as Williams and Bismack Biyombo. I probably wouldn't recommend Biyombo or Jason Maxiell, but they're both reasonable punt options in the event of another Zeller absence.
Lastly, I love Friday's Spurs-Suns game for DFS purposes, as it figures to be a tight, high-scoring contest. Gregg Popovich won't be concerned with his veterans' workloads in such an important game, and all of Manu Ginobili, Danny Green, Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter look like strong options. The Suns, on the other hand, mostly appear a bit overpriced, but I'm willing to pay up for either Bledsoe or Dragic.
That's all I've got for now. Here are some of the top choices for the upcoming weekend (Fri.-Sun.) on DraftKings…
Point Guard
Trey Burke, ATL (Fri. at OKC, Sat. at HOU), $5400 – I love both sides of Friday's point guard matchup, as Westbrook and Burke carry very favorable price tags, with Burke an undersized and mediocre defender, while Westbrook is highly capable but inconsistent. Burke has been dynamite since Alec Burks (shoulder) went down for the season, logging 37 or more minutes in four of his last six games. He scored at least 24.75 DraftKings points in each of those six contests, with two showings north of 40. There is quite a bit of blowout potential here, but with the Jazz so reliant on Burke, Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors, the 22-year-old point guard should be able to reach value in 30 minutes.
Other options:Stephen Curry, GS (Fri. vs. CLE, ), $10,300; Russell Westbrook, GS (Fri. vs. UTA), $9900; Michael Carter-Williams, PHI (Fri at BKN, Sat. vs. IND), $8600; Elfrid Payton, ORL (Fri. at LAL, Sat. at POR), $5300; Zach LaVine, MIN (Fri. at MIL, Sat. vs. SA), $3600; Kemba Walker, CHA (Sat. at NY)
Shooting Guard
Manu Ginobili, SA (Fri. vs. PHO, Sat. at MIN), $5200 – Ginobili has been logging about 28 minutes per game of late, and I'd expect him to fall in the 27-to-30 range for Friday's all-important matchup against the Suns. With Tony Parker perhaps still somewhat limited, Ginobili will likely take on a good portion of the ball-handling, as has been the case in recent weeks. While he's often a major disappointment in blowouts or slower-paced games, Ginobili should find Friday's conditions ideal for robust fantasy production. The game projects to be a close, high-scoring affair, and Gregg Popovich won't be too concerned with monitoring his veterans' minutes. There's some chance the Spurs will eventually rip off a streak that allows them to go about their typical tactics, but it's also quite possible that they'll be fighting for a bottom-four playoff spot all season. For the first time in many, many years, Popovich may truly need to worry about each and every result.
Other options:Eric Bledsoe, PHO (Fri. at SA, Sun. at MEM), $8700; Kobe Bryant, LAL (Fri. vs. ORL, Sun. vs. POR), $8600; Klay Thompson, GS (Fri. vs. CLE), $7100; Danny Green, SA (Fri. vs. PHO, Sat. at MIN), $5500; Lou Williams, TOR (Sat. vs. BOS); Gerald Henderson, CHA (Sat. at NY)
Small Forward
Paul Pierce, WAS (Fri. vs. CHI, Sun. at ATL), $5000 – The small forward spot has been a fantasy graveyard this year, so while Pierce doesn't offer enormous upside, the expectation of increased minutes is enough to make him one of the position's top plays this weekend. The Wiz rested Pierce on Wednesday against the Knicks, presumably with an eye toward keeping him fresh for this weekend's pair of matchups with fellow Eastern Conference contenders. This isn't exactly surprising, as Pierce has often logged around 30 minutes in games against key opponents this season, while he typically plays 25 or fewer in the games viewed as less important.
Other options:Draymond Green, GS (Fri. vs. CLE), $8200; Andrew Wiggins, MIN (Fri at MIL, Sat. vs. SA), $6600; Wilson Chandler, DEN (Fri. at SAC), $5700; Solomon Hill, IND (Fri. vs. BOS, Sat. at PHI), $4000
Power Forward
Anthony Davis, NO (Fri. vs. MEM), $11,000 – With superstars like Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry carrying reduced price tags into favorable matchups, Davis will likely be overlooked on Friday night, despite facing a team that has surrendered the most DraftKings points to power forwards. I don't usually put much stock in those 'OPRK' stats, as they attract unwanted attention to certain players, and don't account for positional flexibility or the performance of starters as opposed to backups. Also, the truly favorable matchups can be spotted without this tool, so I mostly just use it to avoid guys in instances where the OPRK number is misleading. In any case, my point is that this is one situation in which the stat tells the real story, as the Grizzlies have plus defenders at every position besides power forward, which has been a disaster in the absence of Zach Randolph (questionable-knee). Of course, Randolph isn't the best defender himself, so Davis remains an option, even if Z-Bo suits up. And, yes, Davis will likely see some of Marc Gasol, but I wouldn't expect that to be the primary matchup, as guarding Davis is an incredibly draining endeavor, and the Grizz badly need Gasol to save some energy for their otherwise lifeless offense. So, while Westbrook and Curry may project to provide a better point return per dollar, Davis will likely be on fewer rosters, and the other options at his position are far inferior to those at point guard.
Other options:Tim Duncan, SA (Fri. vs. PHO, Sat. at MIN), $9100; Serge Ibaka, OKC (Fri. vs UTA), $6400; Robert Covington, PHI (Fri. at BKN, Sat. vs. IND), $5600; Nerlens Noel, PHI (Fri. at BKN, Sat. vs. IND), $5400; Kevin Garnett, BKN (Fri. vs. PHI, Sat. at DET)
Center
Tiago Splitter, SA (Fri. vs PHO, Sat. at MIN), $4200 – There are an insane number of good options at center for Friday, and I'd expect the same to be true for the rest of the weekend. While Splitter's upside may not quite match up to that of DMC, Vuc, Tyler Zeller, Lavoy Allen or even J.J. Hickson, the San Antonio center is all but a sure thing to produce five-to-seven points per $1000 of salary on Friday night. Splitter's price tag is reflective of the limited playing time he has handled since returning from a back injury in mid-December, but he has now played 25-plus minutes in each of the last three games, recording 17.25, 24.25 and 24.75 DraftKings points in the process. With a favorable Friday matchup in a game that's crucial for the Spurs, those point totals are actually on the low end of what we can expect. I'd be a bit more hesitant with Splitter for Saturday, especially if he logs 28+ minutes for a third consecutive game Friday night.
Other options:DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (Fri. vs. DEN, Sun. vs. CLE), $10,500; Nikola Vucevic, ORL (Fri. at LAL, Sat. at POR); $8400; Al Horford, ATL (Fri. at DET, Sun. vs. WAS), $6400; Rudy Gobert, UTA (Fri. at OKC, Sat. at HOU), $6100; J.J. Hickson, DEN (Fri. at SAC), $4500; Tyler Zeller, BOS (Fri. at IND, Sat. at TOR), $4200; Lavoy Allen, IND (Fri. vs. BOS, Sat. at PHI), $3800
