This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We've got a rather unbalanced NBA schedule this weekend, due to the league's desire to avoid competing with the NFL conference championship games. Friday will have 13 contests, followed by eight on Saturday, and then just three on Sunday. With the Knicks and Bucks out of action as they travel back from London, Saturday's slate will feature a whopping 14-of-16 teams on the second game of back-to-backs.
Fortunately/unfortunately (depending on how you look at it), there don't appear to be any obvious rest concerns with the back-to-backs, and the Mavs and Hawks already rested guys this week to prepare for a two-game weekend.
While we won't necessarily find any obvious value plays from rest situations, there should be ample opportunity because of injuries, with an unusual number of star players ailing.
I'll start with a quick list, before diving into some of the more interesting situations:
PG Rajon Rondo
PG Mike Conley
PG Jrue Holiday
SG Dwyane Wade
SF Rudy Gay
PF Anthony Davis
PF Jared Sullinger
PF Robert Covington
C Joakim Noah
That's as of Thursday night, so while some of these guys will likely turn out to be fine for Friday, other injuries figure to crop up before 7 PM ET.
The obvious team to watch closely is New Orleans, with both Anthony Davis (toe) and Jrue Holiday (ankle) considered questionable for Friday's game in Philadelphia. Holliday already missed a game Wednesday against the Pistons, while Davis suffered his injury at the very end of Wednesday's contest. After Friday, the Pelicans get a day off, before facing the Raptors in Toronto on Sunday.
The obvious player to target here is shooting guard Tyreke Evans ($7900), who put up 45 DraftKings points while filling in for Holiday as the starting point guard Wednesday night. Evans gets more of a boost from a Holiday absence, but a Davis absence would also be beneficial, as it would free up quite a few shots. Should both players sit, Evans would be tasked with putting the Pellies on his back, in what would suddenly be an evenly matched game against a fast-paced team. I'm starting Evans if Holiday sits, and he's a must-start if both Holiday and Davis sit.
Power forward Ryan Anderson ($5300) will also be awfully tough to pass up in the event of a Davis absence, as the sharpshooter would likely see a big increase over his season-long average of 29.1 minutes per game. Anderson is already a reasonable option even with Davis in the lineup, averaging 25.8 DK points per game over those 29.1 minutes. Likewise, center Omer Asik ($4200) would benefit greatly from a Davis absence, with him and Anderson likely splitting most of the superstar's minutes. Asik and Anderson provide solid per-minute production, but their playing time has been limited because the Pellies have three starting-caliber players at the power forward and center spots. You could perhaps look a bit deeper toward the New Orleans bench, but this is one of those cases in which the likely beneficiaries are well known commodities.
On the other hand, injuries to Dwyane Wade and Mike Conley may lead to significant point-projection jumps for Shabazz Napier ($3200) and Beno Udrih ($3000), both of whom have essentially been unusable the past few weeks.
Mario Chalmers ($4500) was the popular play in Wade's absence Wednesday against the Warriors, and while Chalmers remains a very reasonable option, it was Napier who capitalized with 22.5 DraftKings points over 32 minutes. Chalmers had 22 points over 35 minutes, but he cost $1300 more than Napier. I'm still a bit undecided for Friday's game in Sacramento, as Chalmers always gets a huge usage bump when Wade sits, and the Wednesday results may point too many people in Napier's direction. In any case, Friday's matchup is an excellent one, and the Heat won't play again until Tuesday.
The Conley situation is much easier, as his absence would make Beno Udrih ($3000) an obvious top-notch value play for Friday in Orlando. The matchup is excellent, and the Slovenian point guard is averaging a solid 15.1 DK points over 17.4 minutes. Nick Calathes ($3200) would also see added minutes in the event of a Conley absence, but Udrih is the obvious play. The Griz point guards get another solid matchup Saturday, facing Dame Lillard and the Trail Blazers in Memphis.
Here are some other guys who may provide value well beyond their price tags this weekend, with the related injury in the second parentheses:
SF Derrick Williams ($4200)/PF Jason Thompson ($3700) (Rudy Gay & Carl Landry)
PF Brandon Bass ($3300)/C Kelly Olynyk ($4500) (Jared Sullinger)
SF Luc Richard Mbah a Moute ($3300)/PF Nerlens Noel ($4900) (Robert Covington)
PF Taj Gibson ($5400) (Joakim Noah)
Yes, I know Rondo's hurt. No, I'm not touching Raymond Felton ($3700), who for some reason picked up most of the minutes instead of Devin Harris ($4100) on Wednesday against the Nuggets. Monta Ellis ($7200), who put up a complete dud Wednesday night, is still the player to target, though by no means is he a must-use.
That's all I've got for now. Here are some of the top choices for the upcoming weekend (Fri.-Sun.) on DraftKings…
Point Guard
Trey Burke, UTA (Fri. vs. LAL, Sun. at SA), $5500 – Mo Williams ($5800) should be in every lineup for a matchup with the Suns, following Tuesday's 52-point (69 DK Points) showing in Indiana. Williams also has at least 25 DK points in each of his last five games, with 32 or more in four of those contests, including showings of 69 and 49.25. The unsustainable hot streak might typically warrant a fade, but with Shabazz Muhammad (abdomen) sidelined, Williams is all abut assured of 30+ minutes and heavy usage in a favorable matchup. While I'm not expecting anything close to Wednesday's monstrous outing, Williams simply has too high of a floor for a fade to make any sense.
That was just to make sure you don't miss the obvious play, so now let's talk about Burke, who has 24.75 or more DK points in each of his last nine games, including three performances over 35. With the Jazz lacking in talent at both guard spots, Burke has been getting about 35 minutes most nights, though he was oddly benched upon picking up a second foul in the second quarter of Tuesday's loss to the Warriors. He still managed to log 29 minutes, after playing at least 32 in each of the previous eight games. Burke's price should really be $6000 or higher, and he draws an elite matchup Friday night, followed by a decent matchup Sunday. Williams-Burke is an excellent foundation for your team Friday night, providing a high floor and high ceiling without eating up much of the budget.
Other options:Russell Westbrook, OKC (Fri. vs. GS, Sun. at ORL), $10,000; Chris Paul, LAC (Fri vs. CLE, Sat. vs. ATL) $6600; C.J. Watson, IND (Fri. vs. DET, Sat. at CHA), $4900; Patrick Beverley, HOU (Sat. vs. GS)
Shooting Guard
Klay Thompson, GS (Fri. at OKC, Sat. at HOU), $7300 – Thompson has been underpriced since Jan. 7, following a string of Golden State blowouts that limited him to under 30 minutes. He's averaging nearly five DK points per $1000 of Friday salary, even though his season-long average is just 32.4 minutes, while he typically logs 35-to-40 in close games. Thompson thus offers massive upside at this price, if the Thunder can manage to keep things close. I also suspect that the Warriors will treat this as one of their more important contests, as OKC may end up clawing for a final playoff spot, and Golden State would undoubtedly prefer to face Phoenix or New Orleans in the first round. Of course, I may be thinking too far ahead here, given that the Warriors have another game Saturday, against a Houston team that's currently positioned for the No. 4 seed. In any case, Thompson is a fantastic option for both contests, assuming his price doesn't shoot back up to $7800-8000 on Saturday.
Other options:Tyreke Evans, NO (Fri. at PHI, Sun. at TOR), $7900; Victor Oladipo, ORL (Fri. vs. MEM, Sun. vs. OKC), $6700; Kyle Korver, ATL (Fri. at TOR, Sat. at CHI), $5000; J.R> Smith, CLE (Fri. at LAC), $4600
Small Forward
K.J. McDaniels, WAS (Fri. vs. NO, Sat. at DET), $5100 – I'm expecting to get almost six points per $1000 at every other position Friday night, but that simply doesn't appear feasible at small forward, which has become even more of a black hole for fantasy production than in past seasons. I'm thus happy to take a guy like McDaniels, who is all but assured of 30-plus minutes, and doesn't take up much of the budget. His playing time has bounced around this season, but he seems to be settling in just north of 30 minutes, having logged 30-to-33 in five of the past six games. There's some chance the rookie could get a bit more because of injuries to Tony Wroten (knee) and Robert Covington (shoulder), but that didn't come to fruition Wednesday night against the Raptors. In any case, McDaniels is averaging 20.3 DK points over 26.2 minutes this season, making him a solid bet to hit 25 with the recent increase in playing time. It also helps that he often gets to stay in the game at the end of blowouts, which can't be said for many starters outside of Philly.
Other options:Wilson Chandler, DEN (Fri. at DAL, Sat. vs. MIN), $5600; Wes Johnson, LAL (Fri at UTA), $3000
Power Forward
Zach Randolph, MEM (Fri. at ORL, Sat. vs. POR), $7600 – Randolph returned from an extended absence to face Anthony Davis and the Pelicans last Friday, but the subsequent matchups have almost been too good to be true. Z-Bo responded with 56.25 DK points against the Suns on Sunday, followed by a 45.5-point outing against the Nets on Wednesday. Playing time also hasn't been an issue, with Randolph logging 42 minutes in Sunday's overtime game, and then going for 32 minutes in Wednesday's contest, despite sitting out the final 150 seconds with the game in hand. It's no secret that the Magic struggle to defend power forwards, but this matchup is actually even better than it first appears. Marc Gasol will have his hands full on the defensive end with Nikola Vucevic, while Mike Conley (ankle) may not play. A Randolph-centric offense makes too much sense not to happen, especially with the big boy coming off a pair of strong showings. However, I'll probably look in another direction Saturday, as the Trail Blazers have given hell to power forwards this season.
Other options:Greg Monroe, DET (Fri. at IND, Sat. vs. PHI), $8100; Markieff Morris, PHO (Fri. vs. MIN), $6600; David Lee, GS (Fri. at OKC, Sat. at HOU), $4900; J.J. Hickson, DEN (Fri. at DAL, Sat. vs. MIN), $4500
Center
Chris Kaman, POR (Fri. at SA, Sat. at MEM), $4700 – The matchups are far from ideal, and yet it's still hard to pass up Kaman at this price. Blazers coach Terry Stotts recently made some comment about wanting to limit Kaman to 24-to-26 minutes, only to trot the veteran center out for 32 and 27 minutes in the last two games. Even if you only project him to play 25 minutes, Kaman is averaging well above a DK point per minute this season, making him a good bet to reach 25 points. Of all the players priced above $3500 for Friday, Kaman has the best chance to provide seven or more points per $1000. 7x works out to 32.9 points, and he tallied 32.5 and 32.25 in the last two games.
Other options:DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (Fri. vs. MIA, Sat. vs. LAC), $11,300; Chris Bosh, MIA (Fri. at SAC), $8400; Tyson Chandler, DAL (Fri. at DEN) $6400; Tiago Splitter, SA (Fri. vs. POR, Sun. vs. UTA), $4200; Meyers Leonard, POR (Fri. at SA, Sat. at MEM), $3000
