DraftKings NBA: Weekend Value Plays

DraftKings NBA: Weekend Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.

With most teams now on their fifth or sixth contest of the season, game-time decisions are starting to have a big impact on the lineup-building process.

Before we get to player recommendations that come with no strings attached, let's take a look at some of the unsettled injury situations (as of early Friday morning) that could lead to value:

With Marcus Smart (toe) and Amir Johnson (ankle) both uncertain for Friday's game against the Wizards, there are a bunch of Celtics with the potential to take on added minutes for a second straight contest. A Smart absence would likely allow Isaiah Thomas ($6,800) to make another start, in which case he'd be a top option for both cash games and tournaments. Avery Bradley ($4,400) would also get a few more minutes, and Smart's absence would provide an upgrade to John Wall's matchup.

If Johnson can't go, the obvious beneficiary is Jared Sullinger ($5,300), who should still only be used in tournaments. Jae Crowder ($4,500) could also see a few more minutes trickle his way if Johnson and/or Smart can't play, but there are probably better discount options at small forward.

The other key team to watch is the Pacers, with Ian Mahinmi (back) and C.J. Miles (ankle) uncertain for Friday's game against the Heat and Sunday's game against the Cavaliers. Jordan Hill ($4,300) will be my favorite option at power forward if Mahinmi doesn't play, but a Miles absence would merely lead to a slight upgrade for Paul George ($8,100), George Hill ($6,100), Monta Ellis ($5,900) and Rodney Stuckey ($3,900).

For Saturday, Chris Paul (groin) expects to play against the Rockets, but if not, Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford will both be interesting options.

Point Guard

T.J. McConnell, PHI (Fri. at CLE, Sat. vs. ORL), $4,000

My Isaiah Canaan recommendation blew up in spectacular fashion last weekend, with the three-point gunner playing the starting point guard job right into McConnell's waiting hands. The undrafted rookie has quickly taken advantage, putting up 34.75 and 36.25 DraftKings points in his last two games, respectively. He's unlikely to hit 35 again this weekend, but something around 25-30 points is a reasonable expectation. Don't be afraid to use McConnell along with teammate Nik Stauskas, as the former is a decent bet to get the assist whenever the latter knocks down a trey. Both guards figure to top 30 minutes, even if the Sixers get blown out.

Other options:John Wall, WAS (Fri. at BOS, Sat. at ATL), $9,100; Ty Lawson, HOU (Fri. at SAC, Sat. at LAC), $6,100; Mo Williams, CLE (Fri. vs. PHI, Sun. vs. IND), $5,800; Jarrett Jack, BKN (Fri. vs. LAL, Sat. at MIL), $5,700; Darren Collison, SAC (Fri. vs. HOU, Sat. vs. GS), $4,700; Jerryd Bayless, MIL (Fri. at NY, Sat. vs. BKN), $4,200

Shooting Guard

Nik Stauskas, PHI (Fri. at CLE, Sat. vs. ORL), $4,100

The other half of Philadelphia's new starting backcourt, Sauce Castillo posted 24 and 28.25 DraftKings points in his last two games, respectively, logging 29 and 35 minutes to get there. Most encouraging of all, he hoisted up 14 three-point attempts Wednesday against the Bucks, albeit with just three going in. Given his team's lack of other shooters, Stauskas should stay busy in terms of both minutes and three-point volume, though efficiency will be a struggle.

Other options:James Harden, HOU (Fri. at SAC, Sat. at LAC), $10,000; Dwyane Wade, MIA (Fri. at IND, Sun. vs. TOR), $6,800; Bradley Beal, WAS (Fri. at BOS, Sat. at ATL), $6,600; Khris Middleton, MIL (Fri. at NY, Sat. vs. BKN), $5,600; Marcus Thornton, HOU (Fri. at SAC, Sat. at LAC), $4,000

Small Forward

Carmelo Anthony, NY (Fri. vs. MIL, Sun. vs. LAL), $8,400

Even after accounting for his age and ongoing shooting struggles, this is too low of a price for Anthony when he doesn't have any playing time restriction. His 29.1 percent usage rate ranks ninth in the league among players averaging 30-plus minutes, and he hit the 35-minute mark in each of the last three games. Given his rebounding prowess, shooting volume and allotment of playing time, Anthony doesn't even need to have a decent shooting night in order to reach value. Case in point: He put up 46 DK points against the Cavs on Wednesday, despite going just 6-of-18 from the field and only attempting four free throws. If you're still not convinced, I recommend taking a look at Anthony's price on other DFS sites.

Evan Fournier, ORL (Fri. vs. TOR, Sat. at PHI), $5,200

With Tobias Harris playing power forward and Mario Hezonja barely in the rotation, Fournier is surprisingly part of a three-way tie for second-most minutes per game (39.0) in the NBA, trailing only teammate Victor Oladipo (41.0). The Magic's pair of overtime games is obviously a factor, but Fournier still played 35 and 43 minutes in last two non-overtime contests. As a bonus, the rotation in Orlando continues to thin out, with Nikola Vucevic (knee) now sidelined, making Fournier a decent bet to top 40 minutes for a third straight game. Even with his shooting likely to cool off, the abundance of playing time will make it difficult not to reach 25-30 DK points.

Other options:Paul George, IND (Fri. vs. MIA, Sun. at CLE), $8,100; Marcus Morris, DET (Fri. at PHO, Sun. at POR), $6,100; Trevor Ariza, HOU (Fri. at SAC, Sat. at LAC), $5,400; Corey Brewer, HOU (Fri. at SAC, Sat. at LAC), $4,100; Richard Jefferson, CLE (Fri. vs. PHI, Sun. vs. IND), $3,000

Power Forward

Greg Monroe, MIL (Fri. at NY, Sat. vs. BKN), $8,500

I'm sticking with my power forward recommendation from last week, even though Monroe's price has risen by $700. His new role as a full-time center has unsurprisingly been beneficial, with the former Piston averaging 19.8 points and 9.2 rebounds over 34.4 minutes in his first five games for the Bucks. He'll likely push 40 minutes in some closer games this season, and the New York frontcourt shouldn't offer much resistance Friday night. Saturday's matchup isn't quite as favorable, as the Nets play at a much slower pace than their crosstown rivals, and Brook Lopez could get Monroe into foul trouble.

Other options:Anthony Davis, NO (Fri. vs. ATL, Sun. at DAL), $10,700; Chris Bosh, MIA (Fri. at IND, Sun. vs. TOR), $6,900; Julius Randle, LAL (Fri. at BKN, Sun. at NY), $6,400; Ersan Ilyasova, DET (Fri. at PHO, Sun. at POR), $4,700

Center

Brook Lopez, SAC (Fri. vs. LAL, Sat. at MIL), $6,800

The center position is loaded with strong options this weekend, in particular on Friday night. Andre Drummond is an excellent tournament play in pretty much any matchup, but I'll also have to make room for a few other guys, most likely by reserving the utility spot for a second center. Lopez offers a ridiculous ceiling for this far-too-low price tag, having shown last year that he's capable of putting up 30 and 10 on any given night. His slow start to the season was largely the product of difficult matchups, and he still managed 47.75 DraftKings points against Al Horford and the Hawks on Wednesday. Lopez's Friday matchup is especially enticing, with the Lakers ranking third in pace (104.6) and 30th in defensive efficiency (113.0). He could easily outscore Drummond while saving you $2,100.

Dewayne Dedmon, ORL (Fri. vs. TOR, Sat. at PHI), $3,000

Dedmon figures to fill in for Nikola Vucevic (knee) as the starting center, potentially getting 30 minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble. 25 minutes is probably the more realistic expectation, but anything above 20 should be enough for Dedmon to provide a nice return on his price. He barely came off the court after Vucevic left Wednesday's overtime game against the Rockets, eventually finishing with 21.75 DraftKings points over 26 minutes (23 after halftime). Despite being one of the more obvious bargain-bin options, Dedmon should still carry a pretty reasonable ownership percentage, given the wealth of name-brand alternatives at his position Friday night.

Other options:Andre Drummond, DET (Fri. at PHO, Sun. at POR), $8,900; Hassan Whiteside, MIA (Fri. at IND, Sun. vs. TOR), $7,500; Al Horford, ATL (Fri. at NO, Sat. vs. WAS), $7,400; Jonas Valanciunas, TOR (Fri. at ORL, Sun. at MIA), $6,200; Marcin Gortat, WAS (Fri. at BOS, Sat. at ATL), $5,400

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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