DraftKings NBA: Weekend Value Plays

DraftKings NBA: Weekend Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.

I'm going to skip over my usual injury review, as there don't seem to be many relevant situations for Friday night, at least as of early Friday morning. The key injuries will be mentioned below, and I'll try to keep pace in the comments if any big news breaks before 5:00 p.m. EST or so. Per usual, these picks are intended for the upcoming weekend (Friday-Sunday), with an emphasis on Friday night's 10-game slate.

Point guard

Kyle Lowry, TOR (Fri. at WAS, Sat. at PHI), $8,600 – Ranking fifth in pace (100.0) and 20th in defensive efficiency (104.1), the Wizards have unsurprisingly been very friendly to opposing guards and wings this season. The team does do a good job of preventing power forwards and centers from scoring, but that's largely because Washington's own big men are competent at post defense and lousy at protecting the rim. The Wizards are also terrible at defending three-pointers and midrange shots, which obviously bodes well for Lowry (and DeMar DeRozan). I really didn't expect to be saying this, but the Wizards don't even deserve to be 15-18, and it somehow seems as if every single star player they face obliterates them. I'm not quite ready to use both DeRozan and Lowry on the same GPP roster, but it's actually not that crazy of an idea. Also, the Raptors play in Philadelphia on Saturday, so it's not as if things will get any more difficult.

Mario Chalmers, (Fri. vs. DEN, Sun. vs. BOS), $4,600 – With Mike Conley (Achilles) and Courtney Lee (hip) both considered doubtful, this is your most obvious play for the Friday slate, as Chalmers should see 35-40 minutes. Of course, his ownership percentage will likely be north of 50 percent, following Wednesday's 23-9-8 showing (in 39 minutes) against the Thunder. Even with a wealth of point guard options on the board, Chalmers should be in every lineup if Conley and Lee are unable to play. It also sounds as if Conley and Lee could miss Sunday's game against the Celtics.

Other options: Damian Lillard, POR (Fri. vs. GS, Sun. vs. OKC), $8,400; Kyrie Irving, CLE (Fri. at MIN, Sun. at PHI), $6,900; Goran Dragic, MIA (Fri. at PHO, Sat. at UTA), $5,700; Jrue Holiday, NO (Fri. vs. IND, Sun. at LAC), $5,400

Shooting guard

Victor Oladipo, ORL (Fri. at BKN, Sat. at WAS), $6,600 – Even if Elfrid Payton (ankle) returns, Oladipo should stick in the starting lineup and play 30+ minutes after putting up 37.75 and 35.25 DraftKings points (over 35 and 41 minutes) in his last two games, respectively. As bad as things have been this season, Oladipo should still produce right around one fantasy point per minute from here on out, and he draws excellent matchups both Friday and Saturday. Of course, he becomes that much stronger of a play if Payton has to miss another game or two.

Other options: Tyreke Evans, NO (Fri. vs. IND, Sun. at LAC), $7,700; Monta Ellis, IND (Fri. at NO, Sun. at HOU), $6,000; Manu Ginobili, SA (Fri. vs. NY), $4,100

Small forward

Tony Allen, (Fri. vs. DEN, Sun. vs. BOS), $3,900 – Conley and Lee typically combine for around 65 minutes per game, which means Mario Chalmers can't shoulder all of the burden in terms of both minutes and usage. Though obviously not much of an offensive threat in any scenario, Allen has a real shot to hit 35 minutes in Friday's game, making him the best option at a position without many attractive alternatives. Assuming Conley and Lee do in fact sit out, Allen can reasonably be projected for upwards of six DraftKings points per $1,000 of salary. Jeff Green ($5,300) and Matt Barnes ($5,400) are also in play, albeit at much higher price points.

Other options: Paul George, IND (Fri. at NO, Sun. at HOU), $9,100; Tobias Harris, ORL (Fri. at BKN, Sat. at WAS), $5,700; T.J. Warren, PHO (Fri. vs. MIA), $4,900

Power forward

Jabari Parker, MIL (Fri. vs. DAL, Sun. at NY), $4,700 – With no plays truly standing out at power forward for Friday night, Parker looks like the best value among a very limited group. We're all still waiting for the big performance to happen, but he does have four straight outings with 30+ minutes and double-digit points. As is often the case, many people will turn to the superstars (Anthony Davis and Draymond Green) if obvious value doesn't open up in the middle and lower tiers. Davis is still a decent play, but Green will almost certainly be over-owned because of a recent hot streak that was partially due to Stephen Curry's absence. With any luck, injuries and/or lineup changes will lead to some truly strong plays at power forward. If not, I prefer Parker, Tristan Thompson and Chris Bosh to the superstars.

Other options: Chris Bosh, MIA (Fri. at PHO, Sat. at UTA), $7,900; Tristan Thompson, CLE (Fri. at MIN, Sun. at PHI), $5,200

Center

Brook Lopez, BKN (vs. ORL), $7,900 – Lopez played at least 37 minutes in each of his last four games, putting up 62.25, 52.75, 27.25 and 49.75 DraftKings points, respectively, for an average of 48 per game. Although we obviously can't expect quite that much Friday night, there's little question that he'll have a massive workload (in terms of both minutes and usage rate) now that Jarrett Jack (knee) is sidelined. Given that Lopez is averaging 38.1 DK points over 34.1 minutes per game for the season, he's one of the more obvious value plays on Friday's slate. If you're looking for a somewhat less popular option, Nikola Vucevic and Marc Gasol should also have strong nights. Don't be afraid to roster Lopez and Vuc together, as Brook's heavy usage often allows for big games from both him and his positional counterpart on the opposing team.

Other options: Nikola Vucevic, (Fri. at BKN, Sat. at WAS), $7,100; Marc Gasol, MEM (Fri. vs. DEN, Sun. vs. BOS), $6,800; Enes Kanter, OKC (Fri. at LAL, Sun. at POR), $4,700

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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