FanDuel NBA: Tuesday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Tuesday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We have a modest six-game slate on tap Tuesday night, but it's one some might consider ideal for tournament lineup builds. With 12 teams in action, there's certainly enough ways to differentiate in tournaments without crossing the line into overwhelming. The injury report is longer in terms of complementary players than elite ones, but there are several very big names ruled out, lessening the top-shelf player pool to an extent.

There's good news in terms of potential game environments as well, as oddsmakers view the slate as tilting toward competitive matchups – four of the six contests have point spreads of five points or fewer on FanDuel Sportsbook as of early Tuesday morning. The two totals on the board as of this writing also bode well for DFS production, as they both check in north of 230 points.

Slate Overview

Here's a closer look at the two games with the highest projected totals on Tuesday's slate, along with a third likely to qualify as such: 

Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (Projected total: 235.5 points) 

The Bucks have dropped three straight games and are likely to be particularly aggressive in their return home Tuesday, while the Raptors have plenty of offensive firepower as well and some defensive issues to go along with it. All of it portends a game that could live up to its projected total, with Milwaukee scoring an NBA-high 122.5 points per home contest and tying with the Warriors for fifth-most possessions per home game (105.3) as well. Meanwhile, Toronto is surrendering 115.9 points per road tilt and putting up 117.1 per game when traveling as well. All of Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are healthy for this game, setting up what could be a busy night for the Fiserv Forum scoreboard. 

New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies (Projected total: 230.5 points) 

The Pelicans are giving up 115.9 point per road game in large part to the 48.1 percent shooting they surrender away from home, while the Grizzlies are allowing 111.3 points and 47.3 percent shooting on their FedEx Forum home floor. Neither team plays particularly fast, but the two squads combined for 227 points when they met in New Orleans on Feb. 6, so the total is certainly within reach. Additionally, Memphis now has Jonas Valanciunas back in a starting role – he logged 24 minutes off the bench in that contest, his first game back from his lengthy COVID-19 absence – and also has welcomed Brandon Clarke back into the fold after his four-game absence due to a calf injury.

Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics (Projected total: Off the board as of early Tuesday)

The Nuggets will be without Paul Millsap on Tuesday due to a knee injury, while Daniel Theis will carry a questionable tag for the Celtics due to a finger injury. However, most of the main offensive pieces on either side will be healthy and available, and the Nuggets come in particularly hot with 117.3 points per game over the last three and 114.7 points per road game overall on the season. Additionally, the Nuggets are allowing 48.3 percent shooting when traveling, and Boston could have an even tougher task than usual defending Nikola Jokic if Theis' length is unavailable to help track him all over the floor.  

Injury Situations to Monitor

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

LeBron James, LAL (ankle)/ Status: PROBABLE 

James is expected to continue playing through his probable designation Tuesday and should benefit from a notable bump with Anthony Davis (Achilles) sitting out. 

Anthony Davis, LAL (Achilles)/ Status: OUT 

Davis' confirmed absence should lead to a start for Kyle Kuzma, who totaled 19 points and eight rebounds over 26 minutes when Davis left Sunday's loss to the Nuggets early.

Kevin Durant, BKN (hamstring)/ Status: OUT 

Durant's second straight absence Tuesday is likely to afford either Bruce Brown or Jeff Green a chance to remain in the starting five, while James Harden and Kyrie Irving should particularly benefit from bumps in usage.   

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC (knee)/ Status: OUT 

Gilgeous-Alexander's ongoing absence Tuesday should help keep Justin Jackson in the starting five and also continue affording Hamidou Diallo plenty of extra minutes. 

Paul Millsap, DEN (knee)/ Status: OUT 

In Millsap's absence, JaMychal Green could move into the starting five, while rookie first-round pick Zeke Nnaji could also see some extra minutes. 

Jrue Holiday, MIL (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT 

In Holiday's ongoing absence Tuesday, Bryn Forbes and D.J. Augustin are slated to handle the majority of point guard minutes. 

D'Angelo Russell, MIN (quadriceps)/ Status: OUT 

Ricky Rubio will see another start at point guard in Russell's fourth straight absence, while Malik Beasley and Karl-Anthony Towns should be see bumps in their already elevated usage. 

Other notable injuries: 

Marcus Smart, BOS (calf)/ Status: OUT 

Daniel Theis, BOS (finger)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

OG Anunoby, TOR (calf)/ Status: DOUBTFUL 

Will Barton, DEN (personal)/ Status: OUT 

Josh Hart, NOP (back)/ Status: PROBABLE 

Rodney Hood, POR (foot)/ Status: OUT 

Theo Maledon, OKC (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT 

George Hill, OKC (thumb)/ Status: OUT 

De'Anthony Melton, MEM (shoulder)/ Status: OUT 

Monte Morris, DEN (shoulder)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Desmond Bane, MEM (personal)/ Status: OUT 

Jarrett Culver, MIN (ankle)/ Status: OUT 

Gary Harris, DEN (thigh)/ Status: OUT

Elite Players

There's a quartet of players with five-figure salaries: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200), James Harden ($11,000), Nikola Jokic ($10,600) and LeBron James ($10,500). All four players arguably hold more appeal than they normally carry.

Antetokounmpo is still missing Jrue Holiday and is also likely to be especially aggressive with the Bucks looking to snap a three-game losing streak, while Harden will once again take the floor without Kevin Durant and notably put up 61.6 FD points without his teammate Monday. Jokic has a very good positional matchup against a Celtics team that's poorly suited to defend him and ranked in the bottom 10 in shooting percentage allowed to centers (55.2), and James will be operating without Anthony Davis.

There are also several players with salaries in the high four figures that have the ability to deliver elite scores, including Kyrie Irving ($9,900), Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500), Damian Lillard ($9,500), Jayson Tatum ($9,400), Pascal Siakam ($8,800) and Zion Williamson ($8,300). From that group, it's worth noting Towns will continue to take the floor without D'Angelo Russell, while Tatum and Williamson should both be in very good positional matchups/ game environments.

Expected Chalk

With 12 teams in action, there could be some especially high rostering rates on some of the elite options. In terms of injury-influenced chalk, Malik Beasley, Kyle Kuzma, Justin Jackson, Hamidou Diallo and Khris Middleton should all see some additional clicks on their names. JaMychal Green could be a popular value option if he's announced as a starter in Millsap's place, while Tristan Thompson could also gain some steam if Theis sits out for Boston.

Key Values   

Kemba Walker, BOS vs. DEN ($6,200)  

Walker has scored 29.5 and 37.4 FD points in his last two games, the latter coming Sunday versus the Wizards on the strength of a season-high 25 points. Although he's prone to a couple of clunkers here and there, the veteran point guard sets up for another potentially fruitful game Tuesday in what should be a competitive matchup against a Nuggets squad that's had trouble defending point guards all season. Denver checks in allowing the sixth-highest offensive efficiency (28.9 percent) to ones, along with the fourth-most FD points (68.5) to the position over the last 10 games. Walker has already delivered over a 5x return on his current salary in five of 12 games as well, while putting up over 4x in another two.

Montrezl Harrell, LAL at MIN ($5,900)

The big man could see some extra minutes down low with AD out Tuesday, and Harrell comes in having scored 25.4 to 36.5 FD points in six of his last eight contests. Moreover, his matchup Tuesday could hardly be more appealing, as Minnesota is giving up the highest offensive efficiency (37.1 percent) to centers and allowing the third-most points in the paint per game (51.3). Harrell gets nearly three-quarters of his scoring in that part of the floor, and the T-Wolves also come in surrendering the seventh-most FD points per game (48.5) over the last five contests.

Dillon Brooks, MEM vs. NO ($5,300)

Brooks has scored 28.4 to 38.0 FD points in three of his last four, offering a glimpse at his upside when his shot is on. The Pelicans could be a team to keep the good times rolling for Brooks, as New Orleans is allowing 48.1 percent shooting on the road, including an NBA-high 42.6 percent from three-point range when traveling. The Pels are also surrendering the sixth-highest offensive efficiency (25.3 percent) to shooting guards – partly the byproduct of giving up bottom-10 figures in multiple categories to the position – and Brooks has also delivered over 5x his current salary in 11 of 22 games thus far.

Other value plays to consider: Gary Trent, POR at OKC ($5,800); Dennis Schroder, LAL at MIN ($5,700); Michael Porter, DEN at BOS ($5,500); Justin Jackson, OKC vs. POR ($5,300); Bobby Portis, MIL vs. TOR ($4,900)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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