This article is part of our NBA Mock Draft series.
"WE LIVE!" I shouted at roughly 10:40 pm Monday night, a mere 20 feet and two walls away from my two sleeping toddlers, as I clicked the confirm pick button selecting Ja Morant a round ahead of ADP. My only regret? I wish I would have shouted something that actually made sense.
The inaugural draft for the new Industry Pickup league was tense, fun, and unpredictable. Managers were constantly flipping between by-the-book value picks and wild swings on favorite upside guys. After it ended, I reached out to the managers for some of their reactions. I asked each to share their favorite and least favorite picks from their own teams, as well as their favorite pick from another roster. Below, I'll go round by round, incorporating their commentary with some observations of my own.
Industry Pickup is a new league, launched this year, that aims to be Fantasy Basketball's rough equivalent to Fantasy Baseball's Tout Wars. All of the managers are fantasy analysts. There is money on the line, and all moves and matchups are public – you can follow the league at IndustryPickup.com. The league's settings – head-to-head, 12 teams, 9 categories, 10 starters, 14 roster spots, 2 IL+ spots – are designed to be as common as possible, so followers can use the analysts decisions to help manager their own rosters.
The draft order:
1. Josh Lloyd (Locked On Fantasy Basketball, Basketball Monster)
2. Noah Rubin (fbi-basketball.com, Rotoworld)
3. Rhett Bauer (Sports Ethos, Punt Intended Podcast)
4. Mike Barner (Rotowire)
5. Mike Catron (Watching The Boxes)
6. Brendan Woodward (fbi-basketball.com)
7. Alex Rikleen (Rotowire)
8. Drew Dinkmeyer (Establish The Run)
9. Mitch Casey (Ball Boys Fantasy Basketball)
10. Alex Barutha (Rotowire)
11. Dan Titus (Yahoo!)
12. Adam King (fbi-basketball.com, Balls Deep Podcast)
Round 1
Round 1 went mostly as expected – these are the exact 12 players I would have predicted for the first round, with little surprises in the order. Doncic falling to six is a small surprise, but many of these analysts have spoken or written about their concern that the Mavericks have a two-game week during the Fantasy playoffs.
Round 2
The headline here is obviously Victor Wembanyama going at 13. It's simultaneously an absurd reach and a 100% justifiable pick. In a highly competitive league, you can't win without some hitting on some bold moves. Wemby wasn't going to make it back to King at 36.
I also though Bauer' pick of Desmond Bane at 22 was interesting. Though some may consider that a reach, I liked it. He's a great and still-improving player fresh off a top-25 finish in his third season and looking at an increased role for the first third of the season while Ja Morant (suspension) is out. Though, as you'll see in a moment, I liked Bauer's pick more than Bauer did.
Adam King's favorite own pick: "Despite the reach, I'm going to go with Victor Wembanyama. Drafting at pick 12 is tough, so taking some risks is warranted. Wemby looks great and at this point my only concern is games played as a result of 'injury' and/or rest.
Rhett Bauer's least favorite own pick: "Bane. I wanted Jimmy Butler but my children picked the perfect time to come into the room and interrupt me. Ah, parenting. Bane wasn't a bad pick, especially if Ja keeps [gestures wildly]. But I wanted Jimmy for a higher per-game upside, and that likely would have changed how I went about my third-round pick since there's no way I would have taken Jimmy and Harden. Maybe even could have gotten Bane in the third!"
Round 3
The theme of Round 3 was "injury risk vets who were recently Round 2 guys", except Woodward (bdub), Titus, and King didn't get the message. With the exception of Dejounte Murray, every pick in this round has potential to be a smashing value or a crushing disappointment (Murray is a pretty stable third rounder who's probability as finishing the season with a third round, not higher and not lower, is roughly 7,000%).
Mike Catron's least favorite own pick: "LeBron James. Not the most exciting pick and risky with his age. If his minutes restriction holds (which it won't when the Lakers are trying to stay over .500), it could damage my long-term success.
Mike Catron's favorite pick from someone else: The Wemby-Chet Holmgren combo in the Rounds 2 & 3 by King. Not because I think those are particularly good value picks (they aren't), but because they are fun risks to take and fun is often ignored on the industry analyst side of the world.
Round 4
Alex Rikleen's (me) least favorite own pick: Pascal Siakam. I was really hoping for Jamal Murray, and was somewhat devastated when he got sniped a pick before me. So, I had 60 seconds to make an important call. The next guys in my queue – Tyrese Maxey, Walker Kessler, and Nicolas Claxton – were all guys I though might make it back to me. Instead of taking one of "my guys", I tried to get cute and optimize for value. Siakam is good value at 42 overall, and he fits next to Steph Curry, Devin Booker, and Bam Adebayo. You must take risks in high stakes league, and if trying to squeeze out the extra value had paid off with one of my preferred targets dropping then I would have been pumped. But it didn't.
Alex Barutha's favorite pick from someone else: (tie) "Siakam in the 4th feels like excellent value in terms of having a relatively safe floor but good upside."
Alex Barutha's favorite own pick: "I liked getting Paul George in the fourth round. We all know the injury risks, but I'm cool playing for upside at that point, and he fit my build of players with assists + threes upside."
Noah Rubin's favorite pick from someone else: "I can't believe that Lauri Markkanen fell to Titus at 38. I was considering him with picks 23 and 26, and he should be a round or two better than where Dan got him."
Mike Catron's favorite own pick: Zach Lavine in the second half of Round 4. When hot and healthy, he is a top-25 player.
Mike Barner's favorite pick from someone else: "I love Jordan Poole this season, so Rubin getting him with the second-to-last pick in the fourth round was one of my favorites. I almost took him two picks earlier over Brunson, but I was building for higher field goal percentages."
Round 5
I have a hard time looking at this round and seeing anything other than my own devastation at Claxton, Maxey, and Kessler get taken over the span of five picks. Needless to say, I thought those were all excellent values. My own pick of Jalen Williams is good-not-great, unless he can show continued improvement on top of his already impressive second half of last season. I'm expecting that to happen, but it's certainly not a given. Deandre Ayton, Nikola Vucevic, and Julius Randle are all great big man picks at this stage of the draft. Adam King may have reached again a little bit for Giddey, but you have to get your guys at the turn and Giddey is a great fit for his build.
Noah Rubin's least favorite own pick: "DeMar DeRozan. It's not a bad pick, but I don't really like drafting DeRozan. He doesn't fit my team as well as I thought he did, and he just isn't that exciting."
Mike Barner's favorite own pick: "I was happy to get Walker Kessler in the fifth round. I had taken two point guards in the first four rounds, so I really needed his rebounding and shot-blocking. His first full season as a starter should be excellent."
Alex Barutha's favorite pick from someone else: (tie) "Ayton in the 5th feels like excellent value in terms of having a relatively safe floor but good upside."
Drew Dinkmeyer's favorite own pick: "Vucevic. We [Establish The Run] have him ranked as a Top 35 player and while he's super boring, I love bigs who don't hurt FT% and his lack of blocks is made up for by the rest of my roster."
Round 6
This is where things started getting hairy. Markelle Fultz, Ja Morant, and Mark Williams were all big reaches. Anfernee Simons and Daniel Gafford probably count as ADP reaches too, but at least those two were taken close to where a lot of analysts (myself included) have them ranked.
My logic on Morant was two-fold. Simons and Austin Reaves were the only guys in my queue I had any excitement for, and I thought I could wait longer for both (woopsies). It's the sixth round of a competitive head-to-head league. If I can't be close to .500 without my sixth round pick, then my team isn't winning squat anyways. And once Morant comes back, as long as there are no more off-court shenanigans, I'm getting a massive boost in hard to acquire categories (points & assists). Also, he perfectly fit my budding punt-blocks build. There's no shame in losing a league like this, and massive pride in winning. I wanted to take a swing.
Drew Dinkmeyer's least favorite own pick: "Rudy Gobert. We have Gobert as a Top 50 player in 9-cat (which rankings skew heavier to Centers) so it's 'good value' but I have legitimate concerns whether the block rate returns and I think there's a decent bit of hidden downside if his athleticism is in decline, given the strong competition with Towns and Ried. It's a pick that didn't feel good to click."
Round 7
This round kind of exemplifies the entire draft. High upside reaches (Reaves, Andrew Wiggins, Ben Simmons, Jalen Duren) are interspersed with excellent value picks who fell too far (Cameron Johnson, Khris Middleton, Marcus Smart). By my count, only three players in this seventh round actually had seventh round ADPs.
Rhett Bauer's favorite own pick: Cam Johnson. Cam fit a positional need after starting guard heavy, but also was a great fit with high-volume scoring/threes on decent percentages with a sprinkle of steals.
Round 8
Alex Rikleen's (me) favorite own pick: I'm so [expletive deleted] high on Jeremy Sochan this year. And, frankly, I think it's weird that the Fantasy community at large didn't boost Sochan more after it was announced that he's starting the season at point guard. My dude averaged 17-7-3 after the All-Star break as a forward. He's 20 year's old. And while this does look like a reach – which, per ADP it undeniably is – I was told by another manager afterwards that he wouldn't have made it back to me. If I took a guy with the last pick I possibly could have without losing him, should it really count as reach?
Alex Barutha's least favorite own pick: I'm fine with my picks overall, but I may have chased my threes + assists build a little too hard by drafting Zach Collins in the 7th and Draymond Green in the 8th. Again, I like it from the build's perspective, but there's no way it's objectively good value.
Mike Barner's least favorite own pick: I'm not the biggest fan of C.J. McCollum, but he's not going to tank my team if he regresses some this season, especially since I took him in the eighth round.
Noah Rubin's favorite own pick: De'Anthony Melton. With James Harden in limbo, Melton will play a large role for Philadelphia this season. In 21 games without Harden last year, Melton averaged 12.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 2.2 steals and 2.1 triples per game.
Drew Dinkmeyer's favorite from someone else: Melton. We have Melton as a top-70 player in 9-cat and he's perpetually underdrafted by the industry. I thought I could wait another round or even two before someone would snatch this elite 3s/steals/TOs combination who has a much bigger minutes ceiling this year. He's competing against an aging PJ Tucker for minutes and would benefit from James Harden moving on. I LOVED the Melton pick.
Rounds 9 & 10
Alex Rikleen's (me) favorite pick(s) from someone else: P.J. Washington at 98 was one of the few picks I was really jealous of. Assuming Miles Bridges doesn't play (which should be a given, though, unfortunately, remains unknown), Washington is locked into a big role. He doesn't excel in anything, but he helps a little bit basically everywhere. While my team is probably better off with Michael Porter Jr.'s points and threes for roster construction reasons, I absolutely would have taken Washington if he had been there. Xavier Tillman at pick 120 could also work out great. I like Tillman's stat profile, and the Grizzlies have big man minutes to fill now that Steven Adams is out for the season.
Adam King's least favorite own pick: Josh Hart. While he is a good fit for my build, his role in New York remains uncertain. He will definitely play meaningful minutes, but I'll need to see some defensive stats to make me feel better about the pick.
Adam King's favorite pick from someone else: Despite the fact I'm not super high on him, Clint Capela at pick 112 is amazing value. As long as he plays 25 minutes per night, he should cruise to top-80 value. He remains an elite rebounder and shot-blocker, albeit one who is battling for playing time with a younger, more versatile option in Onyeka Okongwu.
Rhett Bauer's favorite pick(s) from someone else: Jalen Green at 97 & Ausar Thompson at 108. Llyod getting Jalen's scoring that late is huge, and I think the arrival of some adults (plus one manchild) will do wonders for Green on both ends. Ausar is just a stud who is going to be hard to keep off the court, especially for a Pistons team that isn't as close to being competitive as they might think.
Rounds 11 & 12
At this point in the draft, managers are each doing their own thing – taking their preferred fliers, rounding out their team build, and mostly ignoring ADP. The picks that most stand out most to me are all in Round 12. Can Trey Murphy get healthy enough during the season to continue his impressive development? Will Dereck Lively actually start? How many minutes with Christian Braun and Talen Horton-Tucker play?
Rounds 13 & 14
A lot of solid veterans went in Round 13. Malcolm Brogdon and Gordon Hayward have tons of health issues, but both are excellent producers when playing good minutes. Brogdon may need a trade to see those minutes, but a trade seems likely, and the league rules (weekly games max) make it easier for managers to hold onto a long-term upside play. RJ Barrett and Dillon Brooks are brutally inefficient, but both should see plenty of minutes and score far more points than anyone else drafted in these two rounds.
