This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
All 30 teams are involved in Monday's slate, which doesn't happen often. I'm having a hard time remembering if it's ever happened, but I'm sure it's buried somewhere on the internet where I can't locate it. There are so many good spots to take, it's impossible to name them all, but I've attempted to narrow things down to a manageable number. We've got a lot of ground to cover, so let's get started!
SLATE OVERVIEW
For the latest spreads and over-unders, visit RotoWire's NBA Odds page. There, you can also find player props, futures, picks articles and sportsbook bonus codes.
Our Vegas information is invaluable for a slate of this size, as there are simply too many options to choose from. I use projected totals and paces to break ties when two or more players are close in expected value. With the above chart as a guide, I like Dallas, Indiana, Boston, Cleveland and Golden State as the best teams to target. Utah, Orlando, and Detroit are my top fade candidates. Granted, there are always exceptions, as injury scenarios or recent upward trends can influence my decisions, but this is a good guide if you are making a call between two players in the same salary range.
INJURIES
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report. Below are some of the most recent and relevant injuries for Monday. Keep in mind that this is not a complete list. Use your best judgment when evaluating ongoing injury scenarios elsewhere on the slate.
MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo (adductor) - QUESTIONABLE
While Antetokounmpo has been playing through injuries, the adductor strain is a new issue that cropped up on the injury report. Since we don't know the severity of this injury, we should find the best candidate to absorb the missed production. Bobby Portis ($5,800) is probably the best pivot available.
PHI Joel Embiid (knee) - OUT
PHI Paul George (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
Although listed as questionable, George is expected to make his season debut against the Suns. Andre Drummond will still work as Embiid's pivot, and downgrading Kelly Oubre ($6,100) will be necessary if George plays.
BOS Jaylen Brown (hip) - OUT
Boston will likely start Luke Kornet ($4,000) and slide Al Horford over to the four to account for Brown's absence. Kornet should be able to come close to 5x value at this salary, but we'll discuss the biggest beneficiary of Brown's absence in a moment.
GSW Stephen Curry (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
GSW Andrew Wiggins (back) - PROBABLE
GSW De'Anthony Melton (back) - OUT
Both Curry and Wiggins could be back on the floor tonight. If Curry misses, Brandin Podziemski ($6,100) would earn another start, but he carries a lot of risk at this salary. I would much rather pivot to Buddy Hield ($6,400), who has a lot more upside at a similar salary.
UTA Lauri Markkanen (back) - QUESTIONABLE
UTA Jordan Clarkson (heel) - OUT
The Jazz will likely ease Markkanen back slowly, so I would avoid him even if he plays. Clarkson's absence improves Collin Sexton's ($5,900) chances, but he's the only pivot I'll consider here.
MIN Rudy Gobert (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
If Gobert is sidelined, Naz Reid ($5,000) will get the start, and a big game from Julius Randle ($7,400) is a distinct possibility.
CHI Zach LaVine (adductor) - QUESTIONABLE
CHI Lonzo Ball (wrist) - OUT
We mention this injury because it's brand new for LaVine and presents a difficult scenario to predict. I think Josh Giddey ($6,800) is a better option to take over at small forward due to his height advantage over Ayo Dosunmu ($5,100), but Ball's absence will result in a usage spike for Dousnmu as well. There are other players lower on the depth chart, but we don't need to make dart throws when there are so many options in the player pool.
DEN Jamal Murray (concussion) - OUT
Just like clockwork, Russell Westbrook ($5,400) has a new opportunity to turn back the clock with another team, and Murray's concussion will be his next opportunity to shine. He was able to post a value-beating number in his first spot with a diverse line that included five steals, and he's just too cheap to fade while he's starting. I would balk at a salary above $6,500, but $5,400 is a great opportunity for value.
ELITE PLAYERS
The top of the player pool is crowded with eight players at 10k or higher. I hinted at my favorite elite earlier, and it's Jayson Tatum ($10,300) against the Hawks. Brown's absence will allow Tatum to increase his shot volume, play more at the perimeter and generate a superior stat line. Everyone at this level should excel, but I would avoid Luka Doncic at his current salary. While he's performing well, he isn't generating enough production for him to match the value implied at $11,000.
There are a few players who are priced too low in the 9k range, with LeBron James ($9,000) as the biggest example. It's a plum opportunity for the Lakers against Detriot, and James' multi-category contributions should help him get above 45 DKFP, which is what we need for 5x value at this salary. Tyrese Maxey ($9,300) is another clear elite opportunity in this range.
The 8k tier is brimming to the rim with good options, but Jalen Brunson ($8,500) stands out as someone who is poised to explode. Some mower results have kept him at this salary, but he blew up for 48 DKFP in his last outing and seems to have found his shooting stroke. Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,700) is another Knick I would consider, and he has the potential to be my first center off the board. If Zion Williamson (hamstring) misses, Brandon Ingram ($8,100) should also produce superior numbers with several other playmakers absent.
Also consider: Domantas Sabonis, SAC ($9,800)@ MIA, Anthony Edwards, MIN ($9,1000) vs. CHA
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Pascal Siakam, IND ($7,700) @ DAL
Dallas has some strong defensive big men in Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford, but if you look back to last season, Siakam had some brilliant performances, including a 31/12/5 double-double. This game sports the slate's highest total, and Siakam's upside relative to this salary is excellent.
Josh Hart, NYK ($6,600) @ HOU
I've mentioned two Knicks already, and although I don't suggest loading up on them, Hart is another great option if Towns and Brunson aren't in your builds. He's consistently right around 5x value at this salary, and he's a nightly double-double threat who can be a difference-maker for your lineup.
Michael Porter, DEN ($6,300) vs. TOR
With Murray out, some would consider Nikola Jokic a slam-dunk pick, but for half the price, you can make a play for Porter and get a good deal of upside. He's posted his best scoring performances of the season during Murray's absence, and I expect that trend to continue.
Cameron Johnson, BKN ($6,000) vs. MEM
I try to check in with scores mid-game like most people, and Johnson seems to always come away with a good result after looking scary in the early going. This should be a good spot for Johnson against Memphis, and he could create some mismatches if he lurks on the perimeter long enough for Memphis to switch their defensive scheme. His three-point shot is a little streaky, but he'll be dangerous if he dials it in.
Also consider: Ivica Zubac, LAC ($7,400) vs. SAS, Derrick White, BOS ($7,100) @ ATL
VALUE PLAYS
I referred to some blue-chip value options and other op picks like Randle in the injury section, so be sure to go back through to find some excellent budget plays.
Christian Braun, DEN ($5,500) vs. TOR
I wouldn't suggest stacking Porter, but Braun's dual eligibility represents a way to get involved with Denver for a lower salary point than our previous endorsement. I think he's appropriately priced here because I would certainly pivot if he got any closer to Porter's salary. His lowest performance of the year was 23.4 DKFP, and his other results have been well over that number.
Carlton Carrington, WAS ($5,000) vs. GSW
It's too bad that Carrington is limited to PG because I would have ended up using him a lot more with standard eligibility. Since Westbrook is all over my lineups, I have only one slot left for point guards, and it's a pot where I tend to spend up. I may make an exception here because Carrington has spun up a string of value-beating performances relative to his 5k salary and is very difficult to ignore.
Toumani Camara, POR ($4,300) @ NOP
There are a lot of scoring opportunities present in Portland's lineup, but Camara has been scary consistent. Aside from a hiccup against Sacramento, all his numbers seriously challenge 5x value relative to $4.300. I can grab him at two different positions, making him one of my favorite value plays on the slate.
Grant Williams, CHA ($4,300) @ MIN
Although Williams' position eligibility is limited and he faces a tough matchup, he's getting increased attention off the bench for Charlotte and started his first game against Boston two days ago. He didn't have the best result in that game, but he's popped for some upside off the bench, with a 17/2/5 line against Toronto as the highlight.
