NBA Draft Kit: Per-Possession Watch List

The first movie I ever saw in a theater was Aladdin, and I loved it.

After seeing the movie, I went to McDonalds an embarrassing number of times to try and collect all of the Happy Meal toys.

Looking back, it's easy to see why I loved Aladdin so much. He's an underdog. He had a great deal of potential, but it was untapped. He was a diamond in the rough.

As an adult, my taste in movies, and happy meals for that matter, has completely changed. However, I still enjoy rooting for diamonds in the rough. In fact, that's one of my favorite parts about playing fantasy sports: finding guys who are going to be great and adding them to my team before anyone else does.

Below are my diamonds in the rough for the upcoming season. These are players who rank inside the top 100 if we evaluated players on a per-possession basis but who are currently ranked outside of ESPN and Yahoo's top 150, primarily because they aren't expected to play heavy minutes next season.

Group 1: Guys to Put on your Watch List

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Medium. Plumlee is expected to come off the bench, but the two big guys in front of him, Brook Lopez and Kevin Garnett, aren't exactly pillars of health.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:High. Boston's crowded frontcourt rotation is still uncertain, so if Olynyk plays well early, he should see significant minutes.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:High. Coach Lionel Hollins has said several times that he expects KG to get more minutes than he did last season. Barring an injury, it seems likely that he will get enough minutes to be fantasy relevant again this season.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:High. With news that Carmelo will be playing primarily at the small forward this year, the door is open for Stoudemire to get big minutes if he can stay healthy.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Medium. The Raptors have serious competition for minutes on the wing, but he's the type of player that coaches love, so a big role isn't inconceivable.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Low. If Coach Fisher deems Prigioni a key contributor to the triangle offense, he could get minutes, but it seems more likely Prigioni will be stuck behind Calderon, and in a battle with Larkin, for backup point guard minutes.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Low. Despite starting several games at center for the Spurs, Splitter has never averaged more than 25 mpg. He's a good bet to exceed 24 mpg this season but probably not to exceed 27 mpg.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Low. Coach Rick Carlisle has always limited Wright's minutes despite his effectiveness on the offensive end. With Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler entrenched as the starters, expect more of the same.

Chance of Getting 27+ MPG:Low. It's tough to see where Robinson's minutes will come from on a team with Ty Lawson, Randy Foye, and Arron Afflalo, but Robinson has a knack for getting on the floor, so keep on an eye on him.

Chance of One of Them Getting 27+ MPG:High. They aren't typical Vogel guys, but it seems likely that one of these two will play big minutes this season in an effort to boost Indiana's offense after the loss of Lance Stephenson and Paul George.

Group 2: The Blocks and Rebounds Club

Breaking news: its advantageous to be tall in basketball. As a result, several teams have players at the end of their bench who are both tall and good at blocking shots. Blocks are rare enough that if any of these guys get major minutes, they would have fantasy value in standard leagues:

Group 3: Deep Deep Sleepers

These are guys who technically made the cut, but who have barely played in the NBA, so I have no degree of confidence that they would perform this well in an expanded role. Basically, I've included them here so that if they do breakout I can still take credit, but if they don't, I can claim small sample size. Consider them very risky deep sleepers: