NBA Fantasy Observations: February Rookie Check-In

NBA Fantasy Observations: February Rookie Check-In

This article is part of our NBA Observations series.

We haven't done an official rookie check-in since December. Now that the trade deadline and All-Star game have passed, we're officially in the stretch run. For many teams, rotations have settled. For others, things will start to change significantly as they pull the plug on the campaign. Let's take a look at the best-performing rookies over the past month-plus.

Victor Wembanyama, Spurs

Most sportsbooks now have Wembanyama as the heavy, heavy favorite to win Rookie of the Year. After a short stretch in which his minutes were limited, Wembanyama is back to playing high-20s to low-30s minutes every night. In eight-category leagues, he's the No. 2 player in per-game production over the past month – a stretch in which he's averaging 20.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 3.8 blocks and 1.9 steals in 28.8 minutes. How well Wembanyama plays for the rest of the season is becoming far less interesting than what his future looks like.

Chet Holmgren, Thunder

Holmgren is coming off a fairly quiet January, especially a nine-game stretch late in the month where he averaged just 11.7 points. But he's back at it now, scoring in double figures across every February game, with averages of 18.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.9 blocks and 1.1 steals in 30.3 minutes. That's getting close to rivaling Wembanyama's recent stretch, and Holmgren is ranked 11th in eight-cat per-game production over the past 30 days. He should continue to deliver roughly second-round value for the rest of the season.

We haven't done an official rookie check-in since December. Now that the trade deadline and All-Star game have passed, we're officially in the stretch run. For many teams, rotations have settled. For others, things will start to change significantly as they pull the plug on the campaign. Let's take a look at the best-performing rookies over the past month-plus.

Victor Wembanyama, Spurs

Most sportsbooks now have Wembanyama as the heavy, heavy favorite to win Rookie of the Year. After a short stretch in which his minutes were limited, Wembanyama is back to playing high-20s to low-30s minutes every night. In eight-category leagues, he's the No. 2 player in per-game production over the past month – a stretch in which he's averaging 20.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 3.8 blocks and 1.9 steals in 28.8 minutes. How well Wembanyama plays for the rest of the season is becoming far less interesting than what his future looks like.

Chet Holmgren, Thunder

Holmgren is coming off a fairly quiet January, especially a nine-game stretch late in the month where he averaged just 11.7 points. But he's back at it now, scoring in double figures across every February game, with averages of 18.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.9 blocks and 1.1 steals in 30.3 minutes. That's getting close to rivaling Wembanyama's recent stretch, and Holmgren is ranked 11th in eight-cat per-game production over the past 30 days. He should continue to deliver roughly second-round value for the rest of the season.

Brandon Miller, Hornets

Miller has taken off since LaMelo Ball went down with another ankle injury. He's taken on more playmaking responsibility and is fulfilling the three-level scoring upside he showed in college. There are still dud nights, but he's scoring 20.5 points on 47/38/87 shooting during this stretch. His playmaking (2.6 APG) and rim attacking (2.6 FTA) are still works in progress, but he's making up for it with quality defense (1.4 STL, 0.7 BLK). Even when (or if) LaMelo comes back, Miller should continue seeing increased usage and efficiency compared to earlier in the year.

Scoot Henderson, Trail Blazers

Henderson was putting together a nice stretch, scoring double-digit points in six straight games (18.3 PPG) with 5.3 assists to just 2.3 turnovers. Unfortunately, an adductor injury is going to keep him shelved at least until March 6 – a blow to him and fantasy managers enjoying his increased production. He appears to be in a good position for the remainder of the year, but we'll have to wait and see.

Amen Thompson, Rockets

Thompson started during a five-game run in mid-February when Fred VanVleet was sidelined, responding with 12.0 points, 11.6 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.8 steals and 0.8 blocks in 34.2 minutes. He's since returned to his usual 15-to-20ish-minute role, making him a drop in many formats. Even if Thompson sticks in this role the rest of the year, which is likely, he's still an extremely intriguing dynasty option based on what he's shown.

Keyonte George, Jazz

George's role has fluctuated throughout his rookie campaign, but he's back in the starting five for the final stretch. Getting the nod over the past half-dozen games, he's averaged 14.7 points and 5.7 assists in 32.8 minutes. Based on what we've seen from him already, it's fair to expect him to average that for the remainder of the campaign, making him someone worthy of rostering in most leagues. However, if you can't stomach his poor efficiency, you don't have to roster him.

Brandin Podziemski, Warriors

With Chris Paul back in the mix, Podziemski could see his minutes and usage decline, but the rookie has certainly proved enough to remain a staple in the rotation. He's been a top-150 player over the past month, averaging 11.4 points, 6.9 rebounds and 5.6 assists in 32.1 minutes. Managers who have held him this long should see what happens over the next few games before deciding on whether or not to drop Podziemski.

Ausar Thompson, Pistons

Thompson remained in the starting five during Tuesday's win over the Bulls despite Isaiah Stewart returning to the lineup – a great sign for Thompson moving forward. The rookie has started nine straight, averaging 11.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.7 blocks in 29.7 minutes. His defensive and rebounding numbers aren't as gaudy as they were to begin the season, but he's at least streamable in most leagues as it stands.

Toumani Camara, Trail Blazers

Camara has quietly been seeing solid rotation minutes all season. He's only a deep-league add, and is still mostly just a streamer, even in 16-team formats. If you need offense, he's not your man. Camara is a defensive specialist who is solid on the boards, averaging 7.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 0.7 blocks per 36 minutes. I don't mind the idea of speculatively adding him (again, in very deep leagues) with the hope the Blazers pull the plug and start giving Camara and other young guys more minutes.

Gradey Dick, Raptors

Dick has been underwhelming all season, but he's seeing fairly consistent minutes lately. He's played 20-plus minutes in six of the past seven games, averaging 12.6 points (2.4 threes) and 2.1 rebounds in 21.0 minutes. Managers in deep leagues desperate for three-point shooting can consider adding Dick, but expectations should be kept to a minimum, given how little else he does across the board.

Dereck Lively, Mavericks

Lively returned from a nose injury right before the All-Star break and has played in four games, getting the start in the past three. But he's seen below 20 minutes in three of those four, as Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington's presence in the rotation have squeezed Lively's minutes. He's still played well, with 6.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.0 steals, but fantasy managers shouldn't feel too much remorse for dropping him.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Barutha
Alex is RotoWire's Chief NBA Editor. He writes articles about daily fantasy, year-long fantasy and sports betting. You can hear him on the RotoWire NBA Podcast, Sirius XM, VSiN and other platforms. He firmly believes Robert Covington is the most underrated fantasy player of the past decade.
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