This article is part of our NBA Offseason series.
With the 2023 NBA Draft in the rear-view, the offseason moves toward the next major checkpoint: free agency. The league's free agency period begins Friday, June 30 at 6:00pm ET, and once the floodgates open, several big names could be on the move.
While this may not be the most outstanding free agency class, all eyes will be on headliners like James Harden, Fred VanVleet, Kyrie Irving and Khris Middleton, among others. Let's take a look at some of the biggest names who could change teams this offseason and discuss the most likely outcomes.
While Harden's future was a hot topic toward the end of the season and into the playoffs, The Beard has mostly kept things close to the vest as the start of free agency approaches. At age 33, it would make the most sense for Harden to re-hitch his wagon to the reigning MVP in Joel Embiid, but there's still real belief that he could instead opt for a return to Houston.
On paper, that would place Harden as the elder statesman on a team full of young players – many of whom are guards – so it would be a bit of a strange fit. But Harden obviously has a long history in Houston and could be one of the few elite free agents in NBA history to choose comfortability over title contention. The Sixers can offer Harden the most money at just over $210 million over the next four
With the 2023 NBA Draft in the rear-view, the offseason moves toward the next major checkpoint: free agency. The league's free agency period begins Friday, June 30 at 6:00pm ET, and once the floodgates open, several big names could be on the move.
While this may not be the most outstanding free agency class, all eyes will be on headliners like James Harden, Fred VanVleet, Kyrie Irving and Khris Middleton, among others. Let's take a look at some of the biggest names who could change teams this offseason and discuss the most likely outcomes.
While Harden's future was a hot topic toward the end of the season and into the playoffs, The Beard has mostly kept things close to the vest as the start of free agency approaches. At age 33, it would make the most sense for Harden to re-hitch his wagon to the reigning MVP in Joel Embiid, but there's still real belief that he could instead opt for a return to Houston.
On paper, that would place Harden as the elder statesman on a team full of young players – many of whom are guards – so it would be a bit of a strange fit. But Harden obviously has a long history in Houston and could be one of the few elite free agents in NBA history to choose comfortability over title contention. The Sixers can offer Harden the most money at just over $210 million over the next four years, while Houston could offer closer to $200 million over the same duration.
Prediction: Harden re-signs with the 76ers on a three-year deal with two years guaranteed. While Houston may have Harden's heart, he'll ultimately sign up for another go-round with one of the best rosters in the NBA.
Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez
We'll group Middleton and Lopez together because they're both in essentially the same situation. Just two seasons removed from winning the NBA title, Milwaukee would love to bring back both veterans, but doing so would likely require some cooperation – and perhaps sacrifice – on the part of Middleton and Lopez.
Let's start with Middleton, who opted out of his $40.3 million player option earlier in June, setting the stage for a longer-term deal. The question is whether Middleton would be willing to accept a lower average annual value (AAV) in exchange for long-term security with the team that developed him into a multi-time All-Star. It's believed that the Bucks would offer Middleton something in the range of four years, $120-130 million – likely with at least one option year.
The Bucks will be banking on Middleton wanting to remain with Giannis Antetokounmpo and what should be a title-contending roster for the next few seasons. If Middleton does look elsewhere, teams like Houston and Sacramento could be potential landing spots. Keep in mind, Middleton, who turns 32 in August, has dealt with injuries throughout his career and played in only 33 regular-season games in 2022-23.
In the case of Lopez, who will turn 36 next season, the Bucks likely won't have to leverage as much of a long-term commitment, but other teams – namely the Rockets, per Adrian Wojnarowski – could look to lure the veteran big man away from Milwaukee.
After undergoing back surgery and playing in only 13 games in 2021-22, Lopez bounced back in a big way last season, starting 78 games and posting 15.9 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.7 threes and 2.5 blocks in what was his best overall season since coming to Milwaukee. Lopez was named to the All-Defensive First Team and finished second behind Jaren Jackson in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
While it was about as encouraging of a bounce-back as possible, the fact remains that Lopez is a 35-year-old seven-footer with a history of health issues. For that reason, the Bucks will likely look to secure a shorter-term commitment from Lopez, who's eligible to sign a three-year extension in the range of $54 million. If Lopez were to sign a new contract, rather than an extension, the Bucks could offer him up to $151 million, but that's exceedingly unlikely given his age and Milwuakee's cap sheet.
At this juncture, Lopez signing an extension to remain in Milwaukee and chase another ring seems like the best bet. There's been no indication – at least publicly – that Lopez is unhappy, and he's unlikely to find a better scenario, from a fit and title contention standpoint.
Where things could get messy for Milwaukee is if a team with cap space like Houston or Sacramento were to come over the top and offer Lopez an above-market deal – say, in the range of $20-$25 million AAV. In that scenario, Lopez would have a difficult choice to make.
Prediction: Middleton keeps the status quo and re-signs with the Bucks on a four-year deal in the range of $130 million. Lopez does the same and re-signs on a three-year contract in the range of $55-60 million in total value.
As expected, Green declined his $25.8 million player option for 2023-24 earlier this month. The veteran has talked openly about his desire to sign a multi-year deal in the range of $100 million, but it remains to be seen just how high Golden State will be willing to push that number.
Heading into free agency, all indications are that the two sides will work toward a deal that keeps Green in Golden State, but it's not a guarantee. Much like Lopez and Middleton in Milwaukee, the Warriors will hope that they can come to terms on a fair but team-friendly contract as they look to make another title push with the Green-Stephen Curry-Klay Thompson core. Golden State is essentially locked into the repeater tax, however, so retaining that core will come at an exorbitant cost to ownership.
Teams with cap room, like Detroit (Green's hometown team), Sacramento and Houston, could all make a run at Green and may be willing to offer more money than Golden State. Given Green's relationship with LeBron James, the Lakers could also be in play. Even so, Green is synonymous with the Warriors franchise, and it's difficult to envision him skipping town just one year removed from an NBA title.
As of late-June, the prevailing belief is that Green and the Warriors will settle on a three-year contract extension, per veteran reporter Marc Stein. The dollar value remains to be seen, but the Warriors could get creative in pushing Green's deal toward that $100 million expectation. Green has also indicated that he'd like his contract to line up with Curry's, which expires after the 2025-26 campaign.
Prediction: Green re-signs with the Warriors on a three-year deal in the range of $100 million
Shortly after the conclusion of the NBA Finals, the veteran point guard declined his $22.8 million player option for 2023-24, as expected. VanVleet and the Raptors engaged in extension talks prior to last season but opted to wait and resume those talks this summer.
Entering the free agency signing period, VanVleet returning to Toronto remains a distinct possibility, but he's expected to test the waters in hopes of landing a deal worth north of $30 million per year. At age 29, that's a reasonable request, especially since VanVleet has a championship and an All-Star nod (2021-22) to his name. It would put him in the same annual-value range as stars like De'Aaron Fox and Jamal Murray. Toronto could offer VanVleet a four-year extension worth just over $118 million – and is reportedly willing to do so – giving him longer-term security, as well as an AAV of nearly $30 million.
However, it's possible the Raptors may look to go in another direction and rebuild around Scottie Barnes after flaming out in the Play-In Tournament this past season. In that scenario, VanVleet would hit the open market and could seek a more expensive contract.
The usual cap-space teams could all be in the mix, as could the Los Angeles Lakers, who may view VanVleet – a Klutch Sports client – as a successor to D'Angelo Russell. But the Lakers have cap issues of their own, so a move to Philadelphia could be another option for VanVleet. Of course, that would require James Harden to sign elsewhere this summer, but if that does happen, VanVleet would be a high-level replacement. He's not the same caliber of player, but VanVleet is four-and-a-half years younger and arguably the more trustworthy asset.
Prediction: VanVleet signs a three-year contract with the Rockets as an unrestricted free agent
It felt like the clock started ticking on Irving's contract the moment he was shipped from Brooklyn to Dallas. While the Kyrie-Luka pairing ultimately flamed out down the stretch, the Mavs are looking to retain Irving on a new contract this offseason. Owner Mark Cuban recently confirmed that goal, but Dallas' interest in re-signing Irving may be more about asset retention than anything else. If the Mavs were to lose Irving, they would have no clear path toward replacing him.
Either way, Dallas is far and away the most likely team to sign Irving to his next contract – partially due to the sparse cap space landscape, and partially due to the fact that Irving has been either injured or absent for a large chunk of the last few seasons. When healthy, the 31-year-old remains one of the game's premier offensive talents, but teams are reasonably skeptical about signing him to a long-term deal.
Irving said back in May that he's in "no rush" to make a decision on his future, so don't be surprised if the process drags out into July. The Mavs have the ability to sign Irving to a maximum deal worth $272 million over five years, while another team could only sign him for four years and $202 million.
If the Mavs offer Irving the max, he'll almost certainly have to take it – even if that means forcing his way out sometime in the future. If the two sides can't come to a tenable agreement, then things could get interesting and a team like the Lakers could get involved. Los Angeles would have to either work a sign-and-trade and/or move several pieces to clear space for Irving, but LeBron James has made it known that he'd like to reunite with his former teammate, per Jovan Buha of The Athletic.
Prediction: Irving re-signs with the Mavericks on a four-year, max contract
Reaves was a revelation for the Lakers this past season, but as a pending free agent he may have played a little too well – at least when it comes to LA's cost to retain him. Reaves is a restricted free agent, so the Lakers have the right to match any offer he receives from another team.
The question for Los Angeles is whether a team with cap space – such as San Antonio – will float an expensive offer Reaves' way. In that scenario, the Lakers would be faced with a difficult choice: let Reaves walk or overpay to keep him around. Given how much is riding on next season, I think the Lakers would opt for the latter.
Prediction: Lakers match an offer in the four-years, $85 million range to retain Reaves
Russell nearly played his way out of the Lakers' rotation by the end of the postseason, but his swoon may enable the franchise to bring him back on a more affordable deal. While Russell will have other suitors, the prevailing belief is that the Lakers will prioritize bringing him back on a new contract, per Dan Woike of the LA Times.
Prediction: Russell signs a two-year contract to remain with the Lakers.
Since coming over via trade from Orlando, Vucevic hasn't had the impact on wins and losses that Chicago had hoped, but it's tough to place the blame squarely on the big man's shoulders. Over the last two seasons, Vucevic has averaged 17.6 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists and shot 50 percent from the floor. Most importantly, he's missed only nine games during that span.
While bringing the 32-year-old back on a new contract may feel like signing the franchise up for more mediocrity, the Bulls don't have much of a choice. Vucevic will have other suitors, but the list of teams for which he makes sense at this point in his career is relatively slim. As such, Chicago will likely bring Vucevic back on a deal that pays him $25-$30 million per season. For the Bulls, a shorter-term contract would be preferable.
Prediction: Shams Charania of The Athletic reported Wednesday that the two sides are nearing an agreement on a three-year contract in the range of $60 million.
Kuzma declined his player option to remain with the Wizards, and while he could still return to Washington on a new deal, it's beginning to feel increasingly likely that another team could lure him away. Of late, the Sacramento Kings have been rumored to be in the Kuzma market and may be willing to pay the wing the $25-$30 million AAV he's reportedly seeking.
With the Wizards entering a rebuild and the Kings unlikely to add a splashier piece, Kuzma would make sense as another key building block for Sacramento alongside De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray and Malik Monk. He'd also provide some insurance – and in some ways an upgrade – if the Kings are unable to come to terms with Harrison Barnes on a new deal.
Prediction: Kuzma signs with the Kings on a four-year deal worth around $100 million
One of the biggest breakouts among role players this season, Strus helped propel Miami to the NBA Finals and will now be able to cash in as an unrestricted free agent. While Miami will make an effort to retain the DePaul product, it's likely that he'll garner more than the full mid-level exception on the open market.
Prediction: Strus signs a multi-year contract with the Magic
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