NBA Midseason Power Rankings: Teams 10-20

This article is part of our NBA Barometer series.

Welcome back to RotoWire's NBA power rankings. This is Part 2 of the midseason rankings. Part 1, consisting of the top-10 teams, can be found here.

A team's likelihood of winning a championship is the main criteria for determining the top-15 teams. Outside of the teams with serious playoff ambition, performance in relation to preseason expectations is a big factor. Week-to-week momentum will also have a large impact on the rankings. The vision of each franchise was also taken into account.

Analytically:

• 58.0 percent true-shooting (TS%) is approximately league average. TS% factors in 2s, 3s and free-throws.
• A possession = A player registering a shot, turnover, or foul drawn
• eFG% = 3s and 2s being adjusted for (FG + 0.5 * 3P).

All stats are accurate through Feb. 1's games. 

11. Dallas Mavericks

Record: 26-22 (8th in WC)    Preseason O/U: 43.5 wins    Current O/U: 46.5

Dallas is too small. Grant Williams takes tough assignments, while Derrick Jones (wrist), Dante Exum and Dereck Lively round out a versatile cast, but 22nd in defensive rating is about right. Ranking 10th on offense underwhelms slightly since it's designed to carry the squad. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving (thumb) have only played 22 of Dallas' 48 games together. There is room to rise.

Dallas' draft-capital ammunition is limited, so striking on Jerami Grant or Kyle Kuzma is a gamble. However, Maxi Kleber and Richaun Holmes as multi-year matching salaries would be nice to move, even if Kleber is decent. In that context, Grant's five-year, $160 million deal becomes a moderately affordable luxury. Is Grant's historical lack of rebounding a concern? Is his defense entering his 30s a concern? Kuzma brings rebounding and has played role-player defense as an NBA champion, but Grant is more versatile defensively, and Kuzma's isolation style isn't wanted. His 54.3 TS% is ugly. The Clippers might pay up for a Seth Curry for PJ Tucker swap.

I lean towards adding defense/athleticism because Doncic makes everybody better offensively. Dallas launches the second-highest 3P frequency in the league, headlined by Doncic's pull-up game, as well as his ability to generate corner looks. Doncic is bombing threes (10.4 3PA/g) and hitting 36.0 percent of 8.3 pull-up 3PA/g. He has also catalyzed Derrick Jones' breakout campaign. The bouncy wing is one of 11 players to attempt over 100 corner threes this season. 

Irving's 25.2 PPG is efficient, alongside a career-high 3.31 AST/TO ratio. Lively is everything that Charlotte wants Mark Williams to be for LaMelo Ball. Lively will continue growing as a rim protector. The 19-year-old is already a two-way rebounding asset. Across 505 possessions, lineups with Lively and Exum outscore opponents by 20.8 points per 100 possessions -- best in the league.

12. Indiana Pacers

Record: 27-22 (6th in EC)    Preseason O/U: 38.5 wins    Current O/U: 46.5

Pascal Siakam is much-adored for his two-way size and tempo/passing fit in Indiana's frontcourt. For all the seamlessness, he's a smooth contrast in style. Tyrese Haliburton will reward his seals and get him the ball during mismatches. Nobody else on this team was mismatch-worthy prior. Haliburton's handle has snatched ankles, and his rim finishing has leveled at 63.0 percent -- 21st among all qualifying guards. His 59.3 eFG% in the 4th quarter ranks in the 81st percentile league-wide. The shot is potent, and he's flashed a growing layup package. He's a future MVP candidate.

Siakam enabling Aaron Nesmith to play SF/Point of Attack/wing defense full-time is huge. Nesmith is a good team defender and selfless charge-drawer as well. He is canning 46.2 percent of 4.7 3PA/g alongside a growing off-the-dribble game.

Ranking 28th in defensive rebounding is an issue -- Myles Turner is subpar, and Obi Toppin is awful. Siakam can't save everything. I'm low on Jarace Walker, but coach Rick Carlisle and Indiana's player development programming deserve love. There is also infectious energy in a Haliburton-led offense. He's omnipresent.

Bennedict Mathurin (toe) is getting cooked defensively, allowing a 59.1 eFG% (10th percentile) outside of the paint. His shooting has bounced back in Year 2, although his foul-drawing prowess has decreased after a record-breaking rookie year. His growth is a factor for the Pacers' ceiling. 

Jalen Smith is still raw, but he's canning threes, grabbing rebounds and bringing size. Ben Sheppard lacks size, but his hustle and shooting on the wings have flashed. Andrew Nembhard isn't shooting threes anymore, but his offensive orchestration is crisp. His handle is underrated as well.

13. New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 27-21 (7th in WC)    Preseason O/U: 44.5 wins    Current O/U: 46.5

Zion Williamson isn't a plus-defender, never forces turnovers, and ranks in the bottom-10 percent of all bigs for defensive rebounding. Playing alongside Jonas Valanciunas is a factor -- as New Orleans' rebounding grades well on both ends -- but what happens if/when Valanciunas needs to play less in the playoffs? Can Williamson and injury-prone (but versatile and savvy) Larry Nance sustain a frontcourt?

CJ McCollum is washed at getting to the basket, but he's hitting everything else -- 43.6 percent of a career-high 7.8 3PA/g, fueling 60.3 TS% overall. His 3.3 AST/TO ratio is a career best, dovetailing with Williamson's career-high 24.7 percent assist rate (1.9 AST/TO ratio) in the No. 14 ranked offense. 

Trey Murphy sparking the offense is a swing factor. His inconsistency since returning from knee surgery is partially due to lower-percentage shots. He got to the rim for 29.2 percent of his shots last season, but that has dropped to 19.5 percent through 23 appearances. 

Brandon Ingram's efficiency and volume have dipped in January, which is another trend to monitor, but he's amid a quality season:

• Career-best 64.0 percent shooting at the rim 
• 11.8 percent TO rate (best since 2020-21)
• 63rd percentile for opponent eFG% outside the paint

Naji Marshall is a two-way asset. Jordan Hawkins is a winner -- flashing spot-start bombing or spark-plugging off the bench. He's open to tough assignments and is showcasing good processing off the dribble. Dyson Daniels' defensive versatility and quality passing haven't outweighed his offensive limitations and static athleticism. I trust Herb Jones to clamp people, and he brings great offensive synergy. There are many specialists on this team, but there is upside to make a run.

14. Miami Heat

Record: 25-23 (7th in EC)    Preseason O/U: 45.5 wins    Current O/U: 44.5

Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Jaime Jaquez have played 12 games together. Miami is 3-7 in their last 10, but the added punch of Terry Rozier makes them better. Bam Adebayo is limiting opponents to 45.8 percent shooting (97th percentile) inside the arc. His versatility anchors the league's 13th-best defense, which I don't expect to worsen with Rozier. Jaquez is a two-way playmaker. Caleb Martin is healthy. The Heat are still as disciplined and prepared to win as it gets. 

Miami has the heaviest mid-range frequency in the league, accounting for 35.6 percent of their shots. Rozier brings a well-balanced shot diet, but he's been sharp in the mid-range, trailing only Tyrese Haliburton, Austin Reaves and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander by hitting 50.3 percent of such looks. Rozier's adaptation is a swing factor.

Herro and Rozier are similar archetypes, but both are multi-dimensional scorers, and jolting Miami's 23rd-ranked offense is much-needed. Amid a career-best year as a passer, Rozier's gravity and decision-making should generate easier looks for Miami's core. Herro is due for improvement, but he has struggled mightily at the rim (4th percentile in FG%):

15. Sacramento Kings

Record: 27-19 (5th in WC)    Preseason O/U: 44.5 wins    Current O/U: 47.5

Sabonis' turnover rate has climbed from 16.7 percent last year to 18.0 percent thus far in 2023-24. A slight uptick in three-point experimentation has yielded good results, but will Sabonis knock down short jumpers or the occasional three in the playoffs? He grades as a slightly subpar rim protector, so the question still looms -- how far can he co-lead a team?

De'Aaron Fox is a pro, possessing a crazy underrated bag. However, his rim finishing has dropped from 69.0 percent last year to 62.1 percent this season. His overall paint efficiency has dropped from 62.2 percent to 55.4 percent. Fox's 38.0 percent three-point shooting is preventing serious offensive regression.

Malik Monk is a baller, but he's net-neutral for being conducive to winning. His turnover rate has risen to 15.1, although he's facilitating more than ever (5.3 assists per game) and his 2.4 AST/TO ratio is a career best. His rim finishing has plummeted -- a holistically concerning trend for Sacramento. Keegan Murray has improved as a rim finisher, but his frequency has dropped to just 26.5 percent of his shots (17th percentile among forwards).

Since the beginning of December, Sacramento is 4-8 versus the top-10 teams in these power rankings. The magic might not exist to balance Sacramento's 20th-ranked defense. The offense currently ranks 14th after being the NBA's top offense last year.

16. Golden State Warriors

Record: 20-24 (12th in WC)   Preseason O/U: 47.5 wins   Current O/U: 39.5

Green's shooting growth (41.8 3P% on 2.8 3PA/g) is a work-ethic testament. He and Stephen Curry are equipped to guide a contender. Klay Thompson is not. He's shooting well (20.0 points, 43.3 FG% on 16.7 shots, 40.5 3P% over the last 11 games), but he doesn't rebound and gets smoked by tough assignments.

Jonathan Kuminga is booming. Kuminga is obviously a wing, but his style reminds me of how Zion Williamson initiates contact while harnessing a pretty basic handle. Kuminga has a good bag of moves. Great footwork. He punishes undisciplined forwards/paint protectors. Kuminga is a better on-ball than team defender, but the 21-year-old is evolving. His turnover rate is down from 15.0 to 12.1 percent, while his free-throw rate is up from 12.3 to 16.7 percent -- exactly what you want from a young, athletic dynamo.

Kevon Looney has certainly lost a step defensively, but his rebounding rates are consistent from previous seasons and he's limiting opponents to a 54.4 percent clip in the paint (75th percentile).

Wiggins having guaranteed money through 2026-27 is a turn-off on the trade market. He's a bounce-back candidate even if the ROI isn't there. Shooting 62.6 percent in the restricted area is unlike any prior campaign in his Warriors tenure -- a gigantic drop from a cumulative 73.4 percent clip dating back to 2021 -- which ranked in 83rd percentile among qualifiers. It's on the rise.

Moses Moody has incrementally grown across the board (free-throw rate, STL%, rim finishing) while showing acceptable defense, but his sample size remains too small. Brandin Podziemski continues to flash special poise. Trayce Jackson-Davis is a hit.

17. Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 25-25 (9th in WC)   Preseason O/U: 47.5 wins    Current O/U: 45.5

The Lakers stalled interest in Dejounte Murray doesn't change the fact that D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves are been abysmal defensively. Anthony Davis (hip/Achilles) is anchoring the league's No.13 defense, holding opponents to 50.0 percent shooting (85th percentile) on shots he contests inside the arc. He's been a warrior this season, but playing through injury is beginning to take its toll.

Reaves has regressed as an initiator. Across 24 players with 250 pick-and-roll possessions, Reaves' 18.9 percent turnover rate is last! He's shooting well, but it's tough to regard him as a weapon. Lineups with Reaves and Taurean Prince are allowing a 122.8 offensive rating -- bottom-10 percentile league-wide. 

In my mind, Russell's booming stretch doesn't mean much. He is still porous and reckless, although his boom ability is nice. Perhaps he gets retained while Rui Hachimura and Gabe Vincent (knee) are dealt elsewhere? Bruce Brown and Dennis Schroder? Bojan Bogdanovic? Murray feels like the only serious answer, but any upgrade alongside elite play from LeBron James and Davis is relevant. James is a marvel of humankind.

Overall, motor is an issue. Jarred Vanderbilt (foot) is alone on the offensive glass and he's now facing a multi-week absence. Los Angeles allows the fourth-most transition possessions, and the perimeter defense is soft. The Lakers' role players aren't two-way difference-makers. Another Western Conference Finals run would be miraculous. It's tough to be excited about buying.

18. Orlando Magic

Record: 25-23 (8th in WC)    Preseason O/U: 37.5 wins    Current O/U: 43.5

Orlando plays stout defense (6th ranked) as the fifth-youngest team in the league, but the Magic are 6-10 in January, and the offense has sagged to 24th in points per 100 possessions. Among all players at least 6-foot-10 and attempting 10-plus shots per game, only Paolo Banchero and Nikola Vucevic average under 55.0 TS%. He's still on the learning curve. 

Franz Wagner is plateauing below the All-Star range, regressing to 31.3 percent shooting from deep, but growing as a facilitator and shooting 57.6 percent at the rim. His rim efficiency is mediocre, but it comes at big volume. Orlando leads the league by attempting 38.3 percent of their shots at the rim. The vision of a jumbo-lineup of multi-dimensional threats is close.  

Circling back to Banchero, he seemingly factors into the vision as a full-time PF (4.7 percent of minutes at center). I'd like to see more experimentation here, although the Magic's lack of shooting isn't conducive to that. For Banchero's sake, would it fuel better offense but worse defense? His rim finishing (54.8 percent), poor isolation + post game, and lack of easy looks (putbacks) are bigger efficiency issues than his shooting (35.8 percent of 4.2 3PA/g):

Orlando is 30th in 3P%, 27th in eFG% and 25th in turnover rate. When they decide to strike on a lead guard, the upside is elite -- especially in the context of a top-10 defense. I think they plan to wait for a Trae Young or Donovan Mitchell-caliber player to be available. It's tempting to buy, though. Playoff experience is important. Banchero, Wagner, Jalen Suggs and Wendell Carter are so cheap through 2024-25, but minor additions and asset preservation seems wise. Bogdan Bogdanovic? Tre Mann? Tyus Jones?

19. Utah Jazz

Record: 24-25 (10th in WC)   Preseason O/U: 35.5 wins   Current O/U: 39.5

It's a shame that Ochai Abaji and Keyonte Goerge weren't serious difference-makers in Utah's 10-6 January record. George shot 39.6 percent from the field over that span. It's peaks and valleys for the promising rookie. Agbaji is a sell-high candidate while he's so early in his rookie deal. Potentially not owning their draft pick this year (owed to OKC if 11-30) is a strange fork in the road. I would be strategically buying. 

The pipeline has assets already. Taylor Hendricks appears to be bulking up and has upside to be a two-way jumbo-wing. Brice Sensabaugh has scorer's craft in an intriguing frame. Walker Kessler is still the future. Even if he profiles as a platoon big, Kessler is an elite rim protector (shots attempted = shots with Kessler as the closest defender):

Simone Fontecchio adds strength in a 3&D wing role. Kris Dunn sets the tone with hounding defense and a 3.4 AST/TO ratio (top-15 among qualifiers). Kelly Olynyk remains an awesome connective piece. Lauri Markkanen (1.178 PPP) is the most efficient shooter in the game at a premium position. 

John Collins is cooked defensively. Among all players with 1,000 minutes this season, only Austin Reaves, Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson have a worse impact in defensive rating. Utah's attempt to rehabilitate his value is a primary culprit in the team's 25th-ranked defense. 

20. Houston Rockets 

Record: 22-25 (11th in WC)   Preseason O/U: 31.5 wins   Current O/U: 38.5

Alperen Sengun's game is ascending. With footwork, touch, and vision, he's a triple-threat weapon inside. He's also a high-effort defender. The eye test says he's a liability defending in space, but opponents post a 45.3 eFG% (93th percentile) everywhere outside the paint with Sengun as the nearest defender (72nd percentile last season). His paint protection is slightly above-average as well. He is officially passable defensively. Steven Adams (knee) is a fascinating 2024-25 platoon partner. I like the culture building and defensive identity. Can he be a Jalen Green enabler in the pick-and-roll?

The centers combined with  Jabari Smith and Dillon Brooks can be a threatening playoff frontcourt, but Green is an asterisk. He seemingly can't bulk up. The athleticism remains off-the-charts, but based on the current decision-making, it should be channeled by punishing closeouts, not downhill sprinting in pick-and-roll. A style alteration would be a swing factor for the Rockets' future. He profiles as a 6th man barring a revolution, or Houston could move on. I don't like ruling out the revolution, and Houston might be able to keep him at market-friendly rate.

Smith's rim finishing has improved from 59.2 percent last year to 63.9 percent thus far in 2023-24. His 6-foot-11 frame paired with elite wing defense of Brooks is nice. Cam Whitmore and Amen Thompson are flashing athleticism. Whitmore is blossoming as a shooter -- averaging 15.0 points and 5.4 rebounds (39.7 percent on 5.8 3PA/g) across his last 10 contests. The shot wasn't a big part of his game as a freshman at Villanova last year, but the powerful frame and first step attacking the basket have translated. He's a huge hit for Houston. Tari Eason (leg/stress fracture) is a two-way playmaking with untapped upside. He clamped people in a limited sample this season.

Fred VanVleet's orchestration has been vital to the Rockets' success, leading the team with a plus-10.1 net rating per 100 possessions. The Rockets are earning stops and not turning the ball over, therefore winning some games. Houston owns the 12th-best point differential, with a 21st-ranked offense and 5th-ranked defense in the league.