This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
It's a new year and conference play is upon is in college basketball. I'll be stepping in for Eric Timm today to offer my favorite plays on a lighter Monday betting slate.
Rutgers at 
Purdue
Rutgers heads to West Lafayette on Monday as sizable underdogs against the top-ranked team in the nation, but there are a few reasons I think the Scarlet Knights can keep it close enough to cover.
First, Rutgers is finally healthy and in sync after early-season injuries to Caleb McConnell and Paul Mulcahy. This has resulted in a three-game winning streak by an average of 30.7 points, albeit only against on KenPom top-100 team. Matchup-wise, Rutgers has an experienced big man in 6-11 Cliff Omoruyi, who will hopefully at least be able to slow down Purdue's best player in 7-4 big man Zach Edey. The Boilermakers also have a pair of freshman getting most of the backcourt minutes in Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, while Rutgers has former Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year in Caleb McConnell to try and shut them down at the perimeter. The Scarlet Knights also sport the 10th-best defensive turnover rate in the nation.
To put it all together, Rutgers is 9-4-0 ATS this season, which is a top-30 rate in the nation (per TeamRankings.com). On top of that, the Scarlet Knights cover by an average of 7.1 points, the seventh-best mark in the country. In general, you can also expect tighter matchups in Big Ten play, and KenPom seems to agree, giving Purdue just a six-point edge. The Boilermakers still get the win, but I expect it to be closer than Vegas thinks.
College Basketball Best Bet: Rutgers +8.5
Eastern Kentucky at 
Kennesaw State
Heading to the Atlantic Sun, the numbers seem to like the Kennesaw State Owls to cover five points at home tonight against EKU. The biggest stat for me here is three-point shooting, as the Owls make 38.8 percent of their shots from distance, good for 15th in the country. Eastern Kentucky, meanwhile, ranks No. 239 in perimeter defense.
On top of that, the Owls rank No. 178 in KenPom's defensive efficiency metric, while the Colonels check in at No. 260 in offensive efficiency. The latter is also a bottom-five team in the nation in free-throw shooting. It's no surprise KenPom has the Owls winning by six, and with Kennesaw State going a respectable 8-3 ATS this season, it seems like the perfect storm.
This line has moved to -5.5 in some places, so get in on the action quickly before the 6:30 p.m. EST tipoff.
College Basketball Best Bet: Kennesaw State -5
West Virginia at 
Oklahoma State
I looked at this game for a while to try and find a lean, but the only number that stood out turned out to be a player prop. At the time of posting, Tre Mitchell's scoring over/under was 13.5 on the DraftKings sportsbook and 12.5 on FanDuel, so you may need to act quickly.
Mitchell averages 13.1 ppg, but in two games against KenPom top-30 teams, he's posted games of nine and two points. Oklahoma State checks in at 27th overall in the KP rankings, but there's more than that working against him here.
The Cowboys present a difficult matchup for any opposing frontcourt, as they are limiting opponents to the 14th-lowest two-point FG percentage rate in the nation. Overall, a frontcourt composed entirely of upperclassmen helps the Cowboys check in at No. 18 overall in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Anchored by the 7-1 Moussa Cisse, who averages 2.8 rejections per contest, it's tough to get inside on Mike Boynton's squad.
West Virginia, meanwhile, just got a double-digit scorer back in the form of Emmitt Matthews, who returned Saturday from a three-week absence and put up 12 points in 39 minutes. Mitchell still scored 16 in that contest, but needed OT to do so, and that was in a much lighter defensive matchup.
Potential fatigue and the difficult matchup could both come into play here, though I'd immediately swing the other direction if Matthews were to suddenly sit for any reason, as his presence is the anchor behind this play.
College Basketball Best Bet: Tre Mitchell under 13.5 points
[Day] College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for [Day]:
- Rutgers +8.5
- Kennesaw State -5
- Tre Mitchell under 13.5 points
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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