This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Saturday brings us a loaded college hoops slate with noteworthy matchups throughout the day. Here are my predictions for three games tipping off later on.
UCLA 
vs. North Carolina
The Bruins enter Saturday on a nine-game winning streak while taking 10 of 11 overall. Their only misstep was an eight-point loss against New Mexico, a matchup where they trailed by 11 at halftime and never made a run to make it competitive. We don't want to overanalyze one performance, but the Bruins have hardly been tested during the non-conference season. More recently, UCLA beat Oregon by two after making a go-ahead bank shot at the end of regulation. A week ago, Arizona had the Bruins on the ropes holding an 11-point lead with 10 minutes left before UCLA locked in and escaped with a three-point win. Their record is impressive, but a 304th rank in strength of schedule means we'll have a better idea of where this team stands after Saturday.
In sharp contrast, the Tar Heels have challenged themselves more than most teams by boasting the seventh toughest schedule among all D-1 teams, per KenPom. North Carolina has already faced Kansas, Dayton, Auburn, Michigan State, Alabama, and Florida, giving us a thoroughly battle-tested squad.
UCLA lists decent offensive numbers, though they're not overly impressive given the soft schedule sitting 55th in efficiency, 73rd in effective field goal percentage, 88th in turnover percentage, and 150th in free-throw attempt rate. Its only weak area is free-throw percentage making under 70 percent. North Carolina has similarly decent defensive numbers, with its most noticeable weakness a low defensive turnover percentage at 280th. The Tar Heels also sit 147th in steal percentage, so they know how to pick their spots.
At the other end of the court, each team's strength will be fighting the other. North Carolina ranks 25th in offensive efficiency with solid raw numbers despite matching up against several college basketball heavyweights at 111th in effective field goal percentage, 60th in two-point percentage, 25th in turnover percentage, and 86th in free-throw attempt rate. The latter two categories are perhaps most relevant in this matchup. UCLA once again offers an elite defense, ranking fourth in efficiency and specializes in causing havoc at No. 1 in turnover percentage. North Carolina is exceptional at taking care of the ball, so UCLA will likely see fewer points off turnovers than usual. The Bruins are also a tick below-average at fouling opposing teams while the Tar Heels are proficient at getting to the charity stripe, another factor that will likely come into play.
Saturday's game will likely come down to the last couple of possessions, and I'm betting North Carolina's offensive abilities will help it withstand UCLA's tenacious defense. I'm taking the points with the Tar Heels.
College Basketball Best Bet: North Carolina +1.5
Utah 
vs. Iowa
Speaking of teams on soft schedules, the Utes have the distinction of having the easiest schedule among all 364 teams in D-1, per KenPom. They have only played two teams in the top-180 of the overall efficiency rankings, and lost both against Mississippi State and Saint Mary's. And all eight of Utah's wins came at home against teams sitting in the lower levels of D-1 basketball.
The Hawkeyes, on the other hand, already boast a couple of victories over notable programs in Washington State and Northwestern. Perhaps more impressively, they nearly won at Michigan. Iowa also held a lead against Iowa State for most of the game before the Cyclones went on a 14-2 run to close it out. We don't want to celebrate a loss, but the fact Iowa performed well against two strong defensive teams speaks to their offensive potential.
On paper, Utah ranks highly in most offensive categories except for free-throw shooting at only 64 percent. Outside of this area, they are well above-average, though there's the big caveat with most of their performances coming against subpar competition. The Utes rank 76th in adjusted offensive efficiency, a number that accounts for the quality of opponents. That isn't bad by any means, but still not as good as the raw statistics may suggest. Iowa ranks 92nd in defensive efficiency, so it's playing at a comparable level. The Hawkeyes defense is far from perfect, yet it's highly effective at causing mayhem ranking 39th in defensive turnover percentage. Utah has yet to play an opponent as high in that category as Iowa, so the team will likely commit more turnovers than usual.
Iowa has consistently offered a potent offensive attack under head coach Fran McCaffery, and this year is no exception sitting 26th in offensive efficiency. They're also able to score from anywhere on the court making over 58 percent of shots inside the arc and 38 percent beyond it while yielding an effective field goal percentage ranking 13th in the nation. Utah's defense, by comparison, is above-average across-the-board and ranks 58th in defensive efficiency, but Saturday's matchup will put this number to the test.
Considering Iowa's resume and its penchant for scoring points, I like the Hawkeyes' odds of covering a small spread. I'm taking Iowa here.
College Basketball Best Bet: Iowa -1.5
Oregon 
vs. Stanford
The Ducks have assembled an impressive resume so far winning 10 of 11 games while beating Texas A&M, San Diego State, and Alabama en route to the Players Era Festival title in Las Vegas during Feast Week. Their only loss came against UCLA when they lost on a buzzer-beating bank shot.
The Cardinal, on the other hand, have taken nine of 11 with a resume not as impressive as their opponent as Santa Clara and California were the only quality decisions, per KenPom. Stanford has only had one other opportunity for such a win, yet they lost to Grand Canyon.
When Oregon has the ball on Saturday, it'll face a Stanford defense ranked 134th in defensive efficiency while struggling at 237th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. This trait will likely haunt them Saturday as Oregon's offense sits 62nd in free-throw attempt rate. When not shooting from the charity stripe, the Ducks excel in most other areas at 45th in offensive rebounding percentage and 115th in effective field goal percentage, an effective combination that leads to many second-chance points.
When Stanford is in possession, it'll take on an Oregon defense that's good with one major weakness being a 237th-ranked defensive rebounding mark. This may be a problem on Saturday as Stanford sits 79th in offensive rebounding percentage. The Cardinal also rank top-100 in turnover percentage and free-throw attempt rate, giving us a team with a solid overall effective offensive attack.
I lean towards taking the points with the "home" team, but ultimately I don't trust Stanford's defense enough to back it. I prefer the odds of getting a high-scoring matchup. The Cardinal have been solid at delivering points for most of the season, and when they lose it's typically due to their defense. For these reasons, I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 149.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- North Carolina +1.5
- Iowa -1.5
- Oregon vs. Stanford - Over 149.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
