This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We have another thrilling day of college hoops lined up for Saturday. Here are my predictions for a few intriguing games tipping off later on.
Kansas at Oklahoma
The Jayhawks have struggled on the road against conference opponents this season, but I'm betting their luck will change on Saturday for a couple of key reasons.
First, Kansas holds a massive turnover advantage when matching up against Oklahoma. Since the conference season tipped off, the Jayhawks list the third-best offensive turnover percentage in the Big 12, and they're going up against a Sooner defense with the lowest defensive turnover percentage. When going in the other direction, Kansas again has the edge ranking 164th in defensive turnover percentage among all D1 teams - noticeably higher than Oklahoma's 228th on the offensive side. Based on these facts, there's a decent chance Kansas will win the turnover battle.
The other important thing for Kansas is its inside scoring ability having made a league-leading 57 percent of shots inside the arc during the conference season. Oklahoma is giving up 50 percent of two-pointers against Big 12 opponents, so the Jayhawks can likely take advantage.
Given these matchup advantages, I like Kansas's odds of collecting a hard-earned road win.
College Basketball Best Bet: Kansas -2.5
Miami at Boston College
The Hurricanes enter Saturday on a three-game skid, extending a long stretch of poor performances having lost eight of its last 12 games - including arguably the worst stumble in the ACC this season with a nine-point home defeat to Louisville on Jan. 10.
The Eagles, meanwhile, haven't fared much better, though they're still proving to be a competent side. The record isn't great, but Boston College doesn't list any awful losses and beat St. John's at the Barclays Center earlier this season to show they have the potential to beat a decent team.
Comparing the teams, both are close in overall efficiency, yet the Eagles have an edge in a couple areas that should provide them a boost Saturday. They're the better offensive team sitting fourth in the ACC in effective field goal percentage, sixth in two-point field goal percentage, and sixth in three-point percentage. The Hurricanes, on the other hand, rank 11th, 10th, and ninth in those categories over the same period. Boston College also outranks Miami in offensive efficiency and turnover percentage, further strengthening its scoring advantage. On a related note, the other area where the Eagles list an edge is turnovers. Meanwhile, Miami has posted the fourth-worst offensive turnover percentage in the ACC during league play and Boston College enters seventh in defensive turnovers to provide a clear edge in this category when combined with its turnover advantage on the other side of the court.
Beating Miami won't be easy, but I like the Eagles' chances of successfully defending home court on Saturday considering the aforementioned reasons. I'm taking Boston College.
College Basketball Best Bet: Boston College -1
Michigan State at Michigan
The Spartans are playing at a higher level the past month and they've won seven of their last nine games. Their prospects were looking questionable early on with a 9-7 record before this recent hot streak, though this is mostly the same squad that made the Sweet 16 last year while these improvements are hardly surprising given the long successful track record of the program.
The Wolverines, in contrast, are in the opposite boat having lost 12 of its last 14 games with recent results hardly encouraging. They pulled off a surprising upset when they hosted Wisconsin earlier this month, yet they followed up that performance with back-to-back 20-plus-point defeats.
The Spartans boast a glaring offensive advantage. Michigan is undoubtedly the worst defensive team in the Big Ten with the worst efficiency rating during conference play and 181st among all D1 teams on the season. This is tough against any team, and it's even worse against a team that's adept at scoring like Michigan State. The Spartans have the sixth-best offensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten and rank 25th in the nation.
The other side of the court doesn't bode any better for Michigan with the fourth-worst offensive efficiency rating in the conference while also recording the fourth-lowest two-point and three-point field goal percentages since the Big Ten season tipped off. Their worst category is turnovers with the second-worst percentage in the conference - a stat that should benefit the Spartans as they excel at causing turnovers by sitting fourth on that category.
The bottom line is that this is a matchup of two teams going in different directions. Michigan State is hitting its stride and has covered the spread in four of its last five games. Michigan is free-falling and has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight outings. I'm laying the points with the Spartans.
College Basketball Best Bet: Michigan State -6
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Kansas -2.5
- Boston College -1
- Michigan State -6
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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