This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Coming off a 3-0 sweep with yesterday's action, here are my predictions for three select matchups on Saturday's college hoops slate.
Cincinnati 
at Georgia Tech 
The Bearcats arrive in Atlanta looking like a top team in the country. They have a 4-0 record and impressive efficiency numbers. They rank in the top 20 of the nation in offense, defense and overall rating. Cincinnati was excellent on defense last year, so that's not surprising, but scoring is a different story. Cincinnati ranked 79th in offensive efficiency at the end of last season, so this scoring improvement could be a breakthrough if the Bearcats can sustain it.
In contrast, Georgia Tech has a 2-2 record after losing to Georgia, 77-69, in its last game on Nov. 15. Georgia Tech wasn't great in its first year under head coach Damon Stoudemire, finishing with a 7-13 conference record and ranking 123rd in overall efficiency, but it's showing signs of improvement in year two. The Yellow Jackets returned a few key players and brought in new faces, boosting their efficiency ratings in all three areas: offense, defense and overall. Even still, they haven't been great on either end, especially on defense. Georgia Tech allowed 105 points to North Florida and 77 points to Georgia, two teams that aren't as good at scoring as Saturday's opponent. Perhaps the biggest difference between this year and last is Georgia Tech's speed. The Yellow Jackets rank 40th in adjusted tempo, a noticeable jump from 168th a year ago.
Cincinnati is decidedly better in most categories in this matchup, although one area where Georgia Tech can take advantage is on the offensive glass. The Yellow Jackets rank 141st in offensive rebounding percentage, not an elite standing by any means, but the Bearcats are 260th in defensive rebounding percentage. Georgia Tech will likely see several put-back opportunities on Saturday.
The Yellow Jackets traveled to Cincinnati last year and got blown out, 89-54. The rematch will happen in Atlanta, and with both teams better at scoring, I believe we'll see a higher point total this second time around. I'm on the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 149.5
Cal Poly at Saint Mary's
The Mustangs will take a short drive up the state on Saturday, hoping to bounce back after a hard-fought loss against Arizona State. The Mustangs' record dropped to 3-3, with their other two losses coming at San Francisco and at California. Cal Poly ranks 74th in strength of schedule, so it's certainly made an effort to test itself, although this is one team that possibly didn't need it, ranking 258th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart. After winning just one of 38 conference games over the last two seasons, Cal Poly finally got a new head coach, and it appears the change is already paying off, nearly matching last season's win total. The Mustangs won four total games last year.
Saint Mary's, meanwhile, enters Saturday with a 5-0 record. The Gaels are ranked 41st in overall efficiency, a familiar sight, although this year's team is unusual compared to recent seasons. The past four Saint Mary's teams under head coach Randy Bennett have featured an elite defense, but they weren't quite as sharp offensively. The Gaels finished each of the past four seasons ranked in the top 15 of defensive efficiency, but outside the top 40 on offense. This year, it's flipped. Saint Mary's ranks 16th in offensive efficiency but 90th on defense, easily the worst defensive mark since the 2019-20 season.
In looking at how this game will play out, we have a conflict of interest. Under new head coach Mike DeGeorge, Cal Poly has changed its philosophy. Under previous leadership, the Mustangs played extremely slowly, but now, they're playing like actual Mustangs. Cal Poly ranks third in the nation in offensive average possession length. That's in stark contrast to Saint Mary's, which has practiced patience for over a decade under coach Bennett. That said, Cal Poly already played a team that also prefers a slow game, Seattle, which ranks 231st in adjusted tempo, and speed won out. The game saw 74 total possessions with Cal Poly winning, 75-71.
Cal Poly is making over 35 percent of its shots from behind the arc while attempting them at the 23rd-highest rate in the country, so this team has a chance to shock someone if it finds rhythm early in the game. Additionally, a more explosive Gaels squad shouldn't have too much difficulty scoring on a Cal Poly defense that ranks 220th in defensive efficiency.
When weighing all the variables involved in this matchup, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring game. I'm on the over in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 149.5
Stanford 
at Santa Clara 
The Cardinal hit the road on Saturday for the first time this year, although one might argue a 20-mile trip is hardly a trek. Nevertheless, Stanford will put its undefeated 5-0 record on the line following a seven-point win against Norfolk State. Admittedly, I picked Stanford to cover in this recent game, which didn't happen. Leading into the matchup, the Cardinal had won each of its games by at least 14 points, so it seems asking them to do that for a fifth straight time was a bit too much, even though the matchup exceedingly favored the home team on paper. Now, Stanford gets its toughest test to date.
The Broncos, on the other hand, aren't off to a great start. They've lost three of five games, though unlike many others, they've challenged themselves. Santa Clara defeated Saint Louis in the season opener before losing to Arizona State, 81-74, North Dakota State in overtime, 88-80, and Nevada, 85-59. It's admirable whenever a team plays a rigorous non-conference schedule, although this didn't come without a cost. These losses weren't exactly close, and North Dakota State ranks 245th in overall efficiency, so Santa Clara may or may not have a winning record at the end of the season. KenPom is projecting them to finish with a 16-14 record as of today.
Looking at this matchup, both teams are offense-oriented. Stanford ranks 49th in offensive efficiency with Santa Clara a little further down the list at No. 64. The efficiency ratings are only separated by a couple of points, although a closer look reveals that Stanford is noticeably better in several key categories. The Cardinal are better with the ball, ranking 17th in offensive turnover percentage compared to 65th for the Broncos. Stanford is better on the glass, ranking 18th in offensive rebounding percentage compared to 106th for the home team. And the Cardinal are significantly better at getting to the charity stripe, 76th in free-throw attempt rate compared to 304th for the Broncos. The latter stat is critical because the Broncos are also having trouble with fouling, ranking 222nd in defensive free-throw attempt rate. Stanford is making over 76 percent of its foul shots, so it should see a good amount of points from the line on Saturday.
Defensively, Stanford is also much better in many categories. Aside from defensive efficiency, where Stanford ranks 100th compared to 155th for Santa Clara, the Cardinal are also better at causing turnovers and securing defensive boards. Stanford also ranks higher in effective field goal percentage allowed, 116th compared to 265th for Santa Clara.
Overall, Stanford is simply the better team. It's listed as the road team, but with the game effectively in its backyard, one has to wonder how much of a difference the location will make. Either way, given a short line, I'm going with the Cardinal in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Stanford -1.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Cincinnati at Georgia Tech - Over 149.5
- Cal Poly at Saint Mary's - Over 150
- Stanford -1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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