This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Thursday's college hoops slate has a distinct Big Ten flavor as many teams from the now expansive conference prepare to take the court. Here are my predictions for a trio of Big Ten games on Thursday.
Purdue 
at Minnesota
The Boilermakers played one of the most challenging schedules through the first two months, ranking eighth in difficulty, per KenPom. They collected several key wins, beating Alabama, Mississippi, and Maryland along the way, although they also suffered four losses. The stumbles came against teams that are presumably competing for top seeds in the NCAA Tournament, not much shame in those outcomes.
In stark contrast, the Gophers played one of the easiest non-conference schedules, ranking 347th in difficulty. Minnesota's two toughest games came against Big Ten opponents, Michigan State and Indiana, and neither was competitive. The Gophers trailed by double digits at halftime in each instance, and they went on to lose by 15-plus points in both.
When Purdue has the ball on Thursday, it will face a Minnesota defense that struggles to stop skilled offensive teams. The Gophers already allowed over 80 points to Michigan State and Indiana, and now they must face the best offensive team on its schedule. The Boilermakers boast the 11th-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, substantially higher than Minnesota's defense, ranking 90th.
When Minnesota has the ball, it will need to play much better on offense if it wants to keep the game close. The Gophers easily have the lowest offensive efficiency rating among all Big Ten teams, and it has the box scores to prove it. Minnesota has played against four teams with a defensive efficiency rating in the top 70, and it failed to score more than 72 points in any of those games. Purdue ranks 70th in defensive efficiency, so this will be another revealing test for the home team.
Purdue isn't as elite as in recent years, but it's still a great team that can make a run if it gets hot. Its only losses have come against top-tier defensive teams, all four opponents sharing a common attribute, a top-50 defensive efficiency rating. Minnesota is far from that, and it doesn't even have a proficient offense to make up for it. For these reasons, I'm laying the points with the Boilermakers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Purdue -6.5
Maryland 
at Washington 
At first glance, the Terrapins are incredibly impressive. They've won 11 of 13 games, including wins over Villanova and Ohio State, and their only losses were against Marquette and Purdue. That said, they haven't played against any other noteworthy. Maryland ranks 350th in strength of schedule, per KenPom, so one should keep that in mind when looking at its raw numbers.
The Huskies, meanwhile, won nine of 13 games while playing a slate that ranked 162nd in difficulty. Their lone season highlight was beating Colorado State and Santa Clara en route to winning the Acrisure Invitational during Feast Week. They lost their two toughest tests, double-digit losses against Nevada and UCLA, so they'll need to start picking up some signature wins if they want any shot at an at-large bid come March.
When considering how this game might unfold, it's important to note that both teams are defensive-oriented. Maryland is among the best in the nation at guarding, ranking eighth in efficiency, with Washington a bit further up on the list at 79th. The Huskies have played up and down, but they usually hold up well against stronger offensive teams. Washington has played against three teams that rank in the top 80 of the offensive efficiency standings. and it held each one under 70 points.
The Huskies' bigger challenge on Wednesday will be trying to score points. The Terrapins rank near the top of the country in seemingly every defensive category, including efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. Washington has shown a penchant for drawing contact, ranking 44th in free-throw attempt rate, but it doesn't do anything else particularly well. Two issues going against it are its free-throw shooting, making under 65 percent, and it's also prone to getting its shots blocked, ranking 330th.
Overall, Maryland is the much better team, but scoring points on the road in a conference game can't be taken for granted. Both teams in this matchup excel on defense, so I'm betting we'll see a low-scoring game. I'm on the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 149.5
Illinois 
at Oregon 
The Fighting Illini won nine of 12 games to start the season, including resume-building victories over Arkansas, Wisconsin, and Missouri. They also nearly defeated Tennessee but lost on a buzzer-beater, giving us a team that can compete among the best.
Not to be outdone, the Ducks can make a similar claim, having already defeated Texas A&M, San Diego State, and Alabama, all en route to winning the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas during Feast Week. Oregon's only blemish came at home against UCLA, so this team isn't perfect, even though its record is one shot away from being flawless.
Oregon has played defense at a high level for most of the year, ranking 21st in efficiency, however, there's one thing it doesn't do well. Unlike most other defensive areas, the Ducks are mediocre at securing boards, ranking 188th in defensive rebounding percentage. This isn't the worst ranking, but this relative weakness could be the difference in a game with tight margins. Illinois ranks 29th in offensive rebounding percentage, so this is not an ideal opponent for Oregon. The Illini also rank exceptionally high in other areas like free-throw attempt rate and two-point field goal percentage, giving them multiple avenues for scoring on second-chance opportunities.
Again, not to be outdone, Illinois has played defense at an even higher level, ranking 12th in efficiency. It's not causing many turnovers, but it ranks top 15 in the nation in several critical categories, including effective field goal percentage allowed, defensive rebounding, two-point field goal percentage, and three-point field goal percentage. The point totals in games involving Illinois tend to be inflated because the Illini aggressively push the pace, but its defense has played significantly better since getting blasted by Alabama earlier in the year. According to KenPom, Illinois had the most efficient defensive performances against Northwestern and Tennessee among all their opponents, and it also had the second-most efficient defensive performances against Wisconsin and Missouri. These are all quality opponents, so these results shouldn't go unnoticed, even if the point totals are misleading.
Oregon is a tough team, but Illinois has demonstrated that it can compete among the best. Given an elite defense and a significant offensive rebounding advantage, I'm taking the points with Illinois.
College Basketball Best Bet: Illinois +4.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Purdue -6.5
- Maryland at Washington - Under 149.5
- Illinois +4.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
