This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Feast Week keeps on giving, with another college hoops slate filled with several high-profile matchups. Here are my predictions for three select games tipping off on Thanksgiving.
Indiana 
vs. Gonzaga 
A day after playing its worst game of the season, Indiana is set to face potentially its toughest test of the entire season. The Hoosiers were 4-0 before their 89-61 loss to Louisville on Wednesday in the Bahamas, a concerning deficit, to say the least. Indiana hadn't played any tough opponents before this outcome, so it's possible the Hoosiers were a bit overvalued going into the season. Indiana ranks 136th in roster continuity, and though it brought in a few notable impact transfers, this team was still 10-10 against Big Ten teams last year, so it's not guaranteed it will have any better results. In fact, KenPom currently projects Indiana to finish 8-12 during conference season. This can change though if Indiana starts playing better.
Gonzaga, coincidentally, is also coming off its worst game of the season. Before their overtime loss to West Virginia on Wednesday, the Bulldogs were 5-0 with notable wins over Baylor and at San Diego State. These weren't just wins, either. They were commanding, statement victories. Gonzaga beat Baylor by nearly 40 points, 101-63, and beat SDSU by 13 points, 80-67. The loss to West Virginia was unfortunate, but a closer look at the game recap shows how Gonzaga was in a position to win for most of the game. The Bulldogs led by eight points at halftime, and then led by five points with under 20 seconds left. At this point, KenPom gave Gonzaga a 98 percent chance of winning, but West Virginia pulled off an extremely unlikely comeback and won in overtime. A good reminder that the madness of college hoops isn't confined to March.
In comparing these two teams side-by-side. Two things stand out, both being major red flags for Indiana. The Hoosiers are horrendous with taking care of the ball, ranking 334th in offensive steal percentage, a terrible trait to have against the Bulldogs because they rank 67th in defensive steal percentage. Gonzaga, in contrast, ranks third among all D-1 teams in offensive turnover percentage. The second issue for Indiana is its inability to secure defensive boards, ranking 234th in defensive rebounding percentage. This is again welcome news for the Bulldogs because they rank 60th in offensive rebounding percentage, so they should see plenty of put-back opportunities on Thursday.
Additionally, I would be remiss if I didn't mention that Gonzaga once again is arguably the best-scoring team in the nation, ranking second in adjusted offensive efficiency. Indiana can't compare, ranking 71st in the same category. Considering this and the Bulldogs' other advantages, I like their odds to cover on Thursday. I'm laying the points with Gonzaga in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Gonzaga -9.5
Arkansas 
vs. Illinois 
The Razorbacks looked impressive in their last game, beating Maryland Eastern Shore by over 70 points, 109-35. Unfortunately, their opponent has the fifth-worst overall efficiency rating among all 364 D-1 teams. Arkansas has only faced one team from a power conference, Baylor, and it lost 72-67, so this team still has a lot to prove.
Illinois, coincidentally, is in the same boat. The Fighting Illini have an identical 5-1 record and have only played one team from a power conference, Alabama, and it lost 100-87. Illinois has dismantled all of its lesser opponents, much like Arkansas, so Thursday's clash will be a revealing game for both teams involved.
The main difference between these two teams is offensive ability. Up to this point, Arkansas has relied on an outstanding defense to stay afloat, ranking eighth in defensive efficiency but 83rd on offense. Illinois, meanwhile, has played much more balanced, ranking 18th in defensive efficiency and 35th on offense.
Both teams are strong on defense, but scoring is a different story. Illinois does several things well when it has the ball, ranking eighth in offensive rebounding percentage, 55th in offensive turnover percentage, 72nd in free-throw attempt rate, and 47th in two-point field goal percentage. Good offensive numbers across the board. This is not the case for the Razorbacks. Arkansas ranks 295th in offensive rebounding percentage and 244th in free-throw attempt rate, not giving them many other opportunities if their shots don't fall.
With both teams being close to even on defense, I have to pick the better offensive team. I'm taking the Fighting Illini in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Illinois -2
Arizona State 
vs. New Mexico 
The Sun Devils had a close call the last time they took at court on Wednesday, Nov. 20, narrowly defeating Cal Poly, 93-89. The Mustangs trailed by two points with just over a minute remaining, so Arizona State was on major upset alert. Either way, even with a win, this type of performance doesn't bode well. The Sun Devils were ranked 52nd in overall efficiency before the game and they fell down to 67th because of the four-point margin at home against a Cal Poly team that ranks 246th in overall efficiency.
The Lobos, on the other hand, already have a signature win. New Mexico dominated UCLA, 72-64, when they met near Las Vegas on Nov. 8. The Lobos jumped out to an 11-point lead at halftime and never looked back. New Mexico stumbled a couple of games later, however, when they traveled to Madison Square Garden and faced St. John's for a father-versus-son head-coaching matchup. The Lobos couldn't keep up in that one, 85-71, so they still have a lot to work on but their early performances are promising.
The biggest difference in this matchup is New Mexico's defense. The Lobos rank 33rd in defensive efficiency, the highest-rated unit in this game, and their specialty is causing havoc. New Mexico ranks seventh among all D-1 teams in defensive turnover percentage, a useful strength in this matchup because Arizona State is rather sloppy with the ball, ranking 226th in offensive turnover percentage. New Mexico is noticeably weak in one specific area defensively, securing boards. The Lobos rank 274th in defensive rebounding percentage, but fortunately, the Sun Devils are weak on the offensive glass, ranking 239th in that category.
Overall, the Lobos play better defense, take better care of the ball, and collect more offensive rebounds. Given all these advantages, I'm going with New Mexico in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: New Mexico -4.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Gonzaga -9.5
- Illinois -2
- New Mexico -4.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
