This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The SEC/ACC challenge heats up on Wednesday, as a few more high-profile teams enter the fray. With several big-time matchups on the board, here are my predictions for three select games.
Alabama 
at North Carolina 
The Crimson Tide is coming off its second loss of the season, suffering an 83-81 defeat to Oregon in the championship round of the Players Era Festival. Alabama took its first loss when it traveled to Purdue on Nov. 15, although it also has wins over Illinois, Houston, and Rutgers, giving it an impressive resume despite having multiple losses. The Tide ranks ninth in strength of schedule, per KenPom, so this team is thoroughly tested. It also features significant players from last year's Final Four team, ranking 65th in roster continuity.
The Tar Heels also deserve credit for challenging themselves, playing the 10th-most difficult schedule up to this point. Unfortunately, this courage backfired to some degree, as North Carolina has already suffered three losses and recorded just one quality win, a 92-90 victory against Dayton. The Tar Heels have losses to Kansas, Auburn, and Michigan State (in overtime), a difficult slate of opponents, to say the least.
Comparing these teams, they appear somewhat similar at first glance. Both teams rely on an elite offensive attack to win games, with the defense much further behind. A year after finishing with the second-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, Alabama has the third-highest rating, a standing that should hold up given the track record and returning players. The Tide's defense isn't great, ranking 53rd in efficiency, although it's much better than last year's team that made the Final Four, which ranked 111th. North Carolina, on the other hand, ranks sixth in offensive efficiency after finishing 15th last year. Its defense, however, has seen a significant drop-off, from eighth a year ago to 65th entering Wednesday.
The efficiency data for each team is somewhat similar, however things become different when taking a closer look. Specifically, Alabama's offense does two things significantly better than North Carolina's. The Tide are massively better at tracking down their shots, ranking 51st in offensive rebounding percentage. The Tar Heels can't compare in this area, ranking 279th in the same category. Additionally, Alabama is highly effective at inside scoring, making over 60 percent of its shots inside the arc, the 14th-highest percentage in the nation. North Carolina is not nearly as strong, making under 54 percent of two-point attempts.
All in all, the Tide has the edge in all three efficiency categories (overall, offense, and defense), and it's much better at offensive rebounding and inside scoring. Homecourt advantage may sway the game, but ultimately I'm betting that Alabama's offense will outscore North Carolina. I'm going with the Tide in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Alabama +2
Auburn 
at Duke 
Number one versus number one. The Tigers enter Wednesday with the highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, per KenPom, and they're traveling to Durham, NC, where they'll face the team with the highest defensive efficiency rating.
Auburn remains perfect on the year and has arguably the best resume of any D-1 team. The Tigers are 7-0 and have defeated Houston, Iowa State, North Carolina, and Memphis. Auburn ranks first in overall efficiency and 12th in strength of schedule. Now, it faces arguably its toughest test of the season.
Duke, meanwhile, already has a couple of blemishes. The Blue Devils blew a nine-point halftime lead to Kentucky before losing, 77-72, and then they lost a nail-biter to Kansas, 75-72. Outside of these losses, Duke dominated Arizona, 69-55, giving them one notable win, although the Wildcats have lost four of five games, dimming some of the luster from the victory. Regardless, Duke is proving to be a team that has a legitimate chance of making a run in March.
As mentioned at the top, the Blue Devils are well-built to withstand the Tigers' potent offensive attack. Auburn is making over 65 percent of its shots inside the arc, the highest percentage in the nation, but Duke is holding opponents to under 41 percent on two-point attempts, the third-best percentage allowed. Additionally, the Blue Devils have the distinction of being the tallest team in the nation, ranking first in average height, per KenPom, another useful trait that will help them contain Johni Broome and company.
When Duke has the ball on Wednesday, it also faces a tough defensive challenge. Auburn ranks eighth in defensive efficiency, giving the Tigers an edge over the 22nd-ranked Blue Devils' offense. That said, Auburn's defense isn't quite as relentless as Duke's. The Tigers rank 254th in defensive turnover percentage, a noticeable difference compared to the Blue Devils, which rank 55th in the same category. Offensively, Duke is decent at taking care of the ball, ranking 123rd in offensive turnover percentage, so it should likely win the turnover battle if these past trends continue.
Overall, this matchup is incredibly close. Considering the Blue Devils' home-court advantage and defensive strengths, I like their odds of coming out on top. I'm taking Duke.
College Basketball Best Bet: Duke -2.5
Texas 
at North Carolina State
The Longhorns enter Wednesday on a six-game winning streak, with their only loss coming against Ohio State, 80-72, in the season opener. And while they've played sharp during the streak, they haven't faced anyone close to the Buckeyes' level. The Longhorns defeated Syracuse and Saint Joseph's, giving them two wins over teams that don't reside in the lower levels of D-1.
The Wolfpack, in contrast, lost its last two games, both coming against high-caliber opponents at the Rady Children's Invitational in San Diego last week. NC State suffered double-digit losses to Purdue and BYU, so it still has a lot to improve on if it wants to return to the NCAA Tournament. Outside of these two losses, the Wolfpack hasn't played outside of Raleigh, and it hasn't played a team ranked within the top 200 in overall efficiency.
When the Longhorns have the ball on Wednesday, they appear poised to withstand a somewhat feisty Wolfpack defense. The strength of NC State's defense is its ability to cause turnovers, ranking 29th in that category, although Texas ranks sixth in offensive turnover percentage, thereby neutralizing NC State's ace card. Turnovers are important for the Wolfpack because the roster is somewhat undersized, ranking 248th in average height, per KenPom, and this shows in the box scores. NC State is poor on the offensive glass, and it's even worse on the defensive glass, ranking 289th in rebounding percentage. If the Wolfpack allows a shot attempt, the Longhorns have a decent chance of a second-chance opportunity.
When the Wolfpack has the ball, scoring points won't be easy. NC State has a one-dimensional offense, relying on inside scoring because it can't shoot from long range. The Wolfpackis making under 30 percent of shots from behind the arc, and it's attempting them among the lowest rates in D-1, 332nd to be exact, further affirming the notion that they don't have many skilled shooters. This might be okay against some opponents, however, Texas is holding opponents to 38 percent on two-point attempts, the lowest percentage allowed among all D-1 teams. If there's ever a time when you'd need a reliable long-range attack, this is it. And as mentioned above, the Wolfpack is poor at collecting offensive boards, so we shouldn't expect to see many put-backs, especially considering that Texas ranks 84th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Given how these two teams match up against each other, the Longhorns have all the necessary tools to earn a hard-fought road win. It might not be pretty, but I'm betting Texas will emerge victorious. I'm riding with the Longhorns in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas -2.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Alabama +2
- Duke -2.5
- Texas -2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
