DFS College Basketball: Friday Preview

The good news about Friday's slate is that you can technically use any player from these games with every over/under above 130 points. That wasn't the case on Thursday and that left for some similar lineups. The other difference maker, per usual, will be the ownership of Zion Williamson and R.J. Barrett. You could take a chance on the most expensive guys or build a more balanced roster and hope the other high-end guys produce close to 40 fantasy points.

Top Players

Zion Williamson ($10,200 FD, $10,600 DK), R.J. Barrett, Duke ($9,500 FD, $10,200 DK):

Once again, this is the biggest decision on the slate. Williamson is coming off a huge 32-point, 11-rebound performance in which he took over late in the game. That's reason enough to avoid Barrett after he had only 33.5 DK points in the previous meeting against Virginia Tech (21 points, four boards, five assists). He's rebounded better in recent games, but his shot selection is harder to trust than Williamson's. Virginia Tech will also work in some zone and that usually favors Williamson, who is better suited to attack from the top of the key, while Barrett tends to hang around the perimeter. Williamson is one of the few players that saw his price rise at FanDuel, but that still may not be reason enough to fade him.

Cassius Winston, Michigan State ($8,600 FD, $8,800 DK):

Winston is the logical pivot from Barrett in cash games since he always tends to get his numbers with at least 32 DK points in the last six. LSU has the least efficient defense of the remaining teams, so that should help MSU's floor leader. The last five times he's played more than 32 minutes, he's had at least 36 DK points and as long as this game is close the entire way, he should come close to a full 40 with late free throws also possible. The Tigers have a bevy of guards to throw at Winston, but he'll likely attack the smaller Tremont Waters when the two are matched up. 

Luke Maye, North Carolina ($8,300 FD, $8,200 DK):

I don't think Auburn will run zone against UNC and while that doesn't help Maye, he should still reach his usual numbers. The Tigers are one of the worst in the country in defensive rebounding and that should play into the hands of Maye and his teammates. I'm more worried about the athletic frontcourt of Chuma Okeke and Anfernee McLemore, among others. Auburn doesn't have good defensive numbers, but it has the bigs to step out and defend Maye, which usually hurts his overall fantasy value. The rebounds may be there, but don't expect a 40-point DK performance.

Cameron Johnson, North Carolina ($8,000 FD, $7,800 DK):

Recent numbers don't show it, but I think this matchup is better for Johnson, who can also capitalize on the boards in addition to this being a plus matchup. Samir Doughty or Malik Dunbar will likely mark Johnson, and while both are different players, Johnson has an edge against both of them, whether through size or athleticism. Johnson will take his usual threes, but his height advantage over Doughty could come into play, as well.

Tremont Waters, LSU ($7,500 FD, $8,000 DK):

I'm putting Waters here because he's been more expensive all season and has only dropped because his upside has been limited since returning from injury at the beginning of the month. He's harder to trust and that's seen in price. He hasn't surpassed 30 DK points in the last three games and faces the fourth-best defense in the country in terms of effective field goal percentage. He could come close to 30 fantasy points, but the lack of upside is a definite downgrade.

Value Players

Garrison Brooks, North Carolina ($5,000 FD, $4,700 DK):

I was already going to fade Nassir Little and with the news that he's dealing with the flu, he'll be even harder to trust for someone that rarely sees more than 20 minutes. That likely means more playing time for Brooks as long as he doesn't get into foul trouble. When Little had an ankle injury earlier in the season, Brooks was seeing close to 30 minutes per game and that should lead to a couple more points and rebounds. He also has the best offensive rebounding percentage on the team and that's perfect for this matchup.

Ashton Hagans, Kentucky ($5,200 FD, $4,900 DK):

Hagans took 11 shots against Wofford, the most he's had since Jan. 26 against Kansas. Without P.J. Washington, Kentucky lacks offensive weapons and that means Hagans has to take up a bigger role. He doesn't cost an extreme amount and should again have a decent size advantage over Galen Robinson Jr. and Corey Davis Jr. If Washington plays, that downgrades Hagans, but I'm not sure how big of factor he'll be.

Galen Robinson Jr., Houston ($5,700 FD, $5,200 DK):

Kelvin Sampson showed his cards last game in that he's going to play his three upperclassmen guards in must-win situations. All three starting Houston guards played at least 34 minutes against Ohio State despite solid options like DeJon Jarreau and Nate Hinton on the bench. Robinson is the cheapest of the three because he doesn't score as much, but averaging 4.9 assists per game, his floor is also fairly safe if the minutes are there.

Aaron Henry, Michigan State ($4,800 FD, $4,600 DK): The biggest thing going for Henry is that you know he's going to play at least 30 minutes if he doesn't get into foul trouble. The Spartans don't have much of a bench and he'll likely be asked to stay active on boards against LSU with 28 in the last four games. He doesn't have a ton of upside, but another 20 fantasy points is more than possible. Matt McQuaid ($4,900 FD, $4,600 DK) is more of a GPP look since he can catch fire, but his floor is around 10 points.

Nick Ward, Michigan State ($5,600 FD, $5,400 DK):

This is mostly a GPP play because playing time is unknown after he went just 10 minutes in the first round. However, if Xavier Tillman gets into foul trouble, that number could shoot above 20. Even if that's not the case, the Spartans will need Ward on the block to draw fouls on Kavell Bigby-Williams, who seems to be in foul trouble every game.

Games/Teams to Target:

North Carolina (-5.5) vs. Auburn, o/u 165, 7:29 p.m. EST:

With the highest over/under, this would be a reasonable game to fade for GPP purposes, but with only three other games on the slate, that'll be hard to do. You can talk yourself into rostering any of the UNC players since Auburn's defensive numbers on the season are poor, ranking last in the SEC in two-point defense, in addition to being a bad rebounding team. The status of Kenny Williams ($5,400 FD, $5,100 DK) and Nassir Little ($5,100 FD, $4,800 DK) is also worth monitoring since that would allow for some even cheaper plays. As mentioned above, I prefer Johnson over Maye against an athletic team, but Coby White ($7,400 FD, $7,400 DK) shouldn't be that much cheaper since his floor is around 25 points with 40-point upside. The chalk choice for Auburn will likely be Bryce Brown ($6,200 FD, $6,200 DK), as he's on fire and surpassed 25 fantasy points in the last three games. He's inconsistent, but it won't be easy to trust Jared Harper ($7,300 FD, $7,500 DK) for more money when he hasn't surpassed 25 points in that same period. Chuma Okeke ($7,600 FD, $7,300 DK) has the best floor of that bunch and will be needed the majority of this game to battle UNC's frontcourt. Samir Doughty ($4,700 FD, $4,100 DK) is the next most likely player to see relevant minutes, but may only be worth a GPP look because of that. In fact, you could look at any of the Auburn guys for GPP, but none are worth a cash look. It's a wonder if Horace Spencer ($4,100 FD, $4,200 DK) will get a few more minutes to thwart UNC on the offensive glass. The problem is that the same can be said about Austin Wiley ($4,200 FD, $4,300 DK) and Anfernee McLemore ($4,100 FD, $4,300 DK), it depends on which one is playing the best.

Duke (-7) vs. Virginia Tech, o/u 143.5, 9:39 p.m. EST:

While Kerry Blackshear Jr. ($7,800 FD, $7,600 DK) and Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($7,700 FD, $7,900 DK) are too expensive in this matchup, Justin Robinson ($6,400 FD, $6,800 DK) is a great mid-range play for someone that showed huge upside earlier in the season. After playing at least 28 minutes in the first two games removed from a foot injury, he should be set for a full workload. Ty Outlaw ($5,300 FD, $5,000 DK) is slightly safer than Ahmed Hill ($5,500 FD, $5,400 DK) since he also gets rebounds. The only reason to use Cam Reddish ($6,300 FD, $6,200 DK) and Tre Jones ($6,200 FD, $6,300 DK) is that you know they're going to play. Jones is much safer since he'll also accrue assists. Otherwise, this isn't a game to use either Javin DeLaurier ($4,700 FD, $4,600 DK) or Marques Bolden ($4,200 FD, $4,500 DK).

Michigan State (-6) vs. LSU, o/u 148, 7:09 p.m. ET:

I've already touched on most players in this matchup and there isn't much more that stands out to me. Kenny Goins ($6,700 FD, $6,500 DK) is the safest of the MSU big men, but he also costs the most. For a few bucks cheaper at FD, Xavier Tillman ($6,500 FD, $6,700 DK) makes a little more sense and there's a chance Tom Izzo throws him and Ward together. For LSU, everyone is already inconsistent and now it has to play an elite defense. Naz Reid ($6,600 FD, $6,900 DK) can be a force, but his floor is often around 20 fantasy points. Kavell Bigby-Williams ($5,900 FD, $5,700 FD) is in foul trouble too often to use, while the guards all lack upside. Skylar Mays ($6,300 FD, $6,100 DK) and Ja'vonte Smart ($5,800 FD, $5,700 DK) should both hit 20 DK points, but expecting more than that in this matchup is tough.

Games/Teams to Avoid:

Kentucky (-2.5) vs. Houston, o/u 134, 9:59 p.m. EST:

With only four games on the slate, I wouldn't completely avoid any of them. I'd stay away from Houston the most because while Corey Davis Jr. ($7,100 FD, $7,200 DK) has been great in the tournament, it's a team that gets a lot of varied production. Second-leading scorer Armoni Brooks Jr. ($6,000 FD, $6,000 DK) has just 13 points in two games, but he's someone that could go off for 20. For Kentucky, its scoring is a little more concentrated between the top four guys, but even then, this isn't a great matchup. Reid Travis ($6,100 FD, $6,000 DK) could see four different defenders, while the Wildcats showed last game they didn't need a huge Tyler Herro ($6,800 FD, $6,500 DK) performance to win. The best gamble is probably DeJon Jarreau ($4,900 FD, $4,800 DK) or Jemarl Baker ($3,200 FD, $3,000 DK), who has 15 points in the last two games. E.J. Montgomery ($4,300 FD, $4,400 DK) and Nick Richards ($3,900 FD, $4,100 DK) will both be owned, but there's a decent chance neither surpasses 10 fantasy points.