Final Four Preview: San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic

Matchup: The program with the most wins in the NCAA this season squares off against a school that won both its regular season and conference championship crowns.  However, this clash is anything but expected, as a school from the Mountain West had never made the Final Four prior to this season, and FAU had never even won a single, solitary game in the big dance prior to this month.  As a result, we are left with perhaps the most unlikely National Semifinal in NCAA Tournament history.  The No. 5 San Diego State Aztecs, winners of the South region, take on the No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls, champions of the East region.  One of these squads will play for a National Championship.  Madness, I tell you.

San Diego State Aztecs, South Region No. 5 seed

Backcourt: The Aztecs are led by veteran, experienced guards in the backcourt.  Senior Matt Bradley led the Aztecs in scoring during the regular season, but junior Lamont Butler paced the Aztecs in scoring in their Elite 8 triumph, and Seattle transfer Darrion Trammell had 21 points in the Sweet 16 when SDSU knocked off No. 1 seed Alabama.  In fact, junior reserve Micah Parrish led the charge with 16 points in the second-round win over Furman.  Perhaps the most dangerous part of the backcourt for the Aztecs is that any guard can go off on any given night.

Frontcourt: Four more seniors anchor the frontcourt for the Aztecs.  Nathan Mensah is the imposing figure under the basket.  The 6-10 Mensah has at least two blocks in each tournament outing, including five swats in what turned into a block party against Alabama.  Keshad Johnson has been steady at the power forward position, while fellow seniors Aguek Arop and Jaedon LeDee also average over 15 minutes per game for the Aztecs.  The Aztecs effectively rotate these four players on an almost even basis in terms of overall playing time, an incredible luxury.  This allows the players to stay fresh and also avoid foul trouble.

X-Factor: Defense.  San Diego State has held opponents under 60 points in three of four tourney contests.  The only team to score over 60, No. 1 seed Alabama with arguably the most potent offense in the entire country, was held to just 64 points.  Creighton, who the Aztecs defeated in the Elite 8, had the "best" shooting percentage against SDSU of any squad, and they still shot just 40-percent from the field.  The rest of the schools they faced shot under 33-percent from the floor.  Defense travels, and the Aztecs should be involved in a close matchup with the Owls regardless of how they are shooting the ball on offense.

Who They Beat to Get Here:

Charleston, 63-57
Furman, 75-52
Alabama, 71-64
Creighton, 57-56

They'll Win If: they can outrebound the Owls.  Florida Atlantic has won the rebounding battle in each of its four wins during the NCAA Tournament.  San Diego State, meanwhile, has been more or less even with the opposition.  The Aztecs are by no means slouches on the glass, but the Aztecs cannot afford to give second-chance opportunities to the Owls, especially given they can struggle to score at times.  Winning the clash on the glass will go a long way towards tilting the scales in favor of the Aztecs.

PREDICTION: To the uninformed, this may look like a full-scale Cinderella matchup.  However, the Aztecs won a very competitive Mountain West Conference convincingly and possess one of the top defenses in the nation.  SDSU has lost just six games this year,  Meanwhile, FAU has won a staggering 35 games this season as compared to just three losses.  That's an amazing feat regardless of what conference you play in.

Florida Atlantic has won in a variety of different ways during the tournament.  They've played fast and outscored their opponents.  They've also been involved in back-and-forth, low-scoring slugfests.  This game with San Diego State is far more likely to be a grind-out, slow-paced, low-scoring, hotly contested affair.  Both teams are deep and experienced, but the Owls possess a tad more firepower on the offensive end.  This could come down to the last possession; I like the Owls in a squeaker.

--Jesse Siegel
 

Florida Atlantic, East Region No. 9 seed

Backcourt: The Owls are led by the backcourt, highlighted by leading-scorer Johnell Davis (13.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg) and Alijah Martin (13.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg). It's also a position of tremendous depth. FAU will routinely play up to nine players nightly at least 10 minutes, seven of which carry a guard designation. The interchangeable parts make it tough on defenses to key on any one player as part of a gameplan to slow an ace down. Davis and Martin both shoot well from the arch, but Nicholas Boyd (39.3 percent)  and B.J. Greenlee (40.3 percent) add additional marksmen. Perhaps its because the Owls play so many bodies, but they get ample rebounding support from their backcourt as well, getting 24.6 of the 38.7 boards on average.

Frontcourt: As you might have guessed, the Owls are thin in numbers up front. Vladislav Goldin had a coming out party against Kansas State (14 points, 13 rebounds, two blocks) and is the Owls' third double-digit point per game guy. His 7-foot-1 frame gives the interior an anchor, but his minutes are trending up as the competition has, playing 29 and 27 minutes in the Owls last two against a 21.2 mpg average. Giancarlo Rosado is the only other option here. He goes 6-foot-8, 247 pounds and shot a robust 62.4 percent from the floor in limited opportunities, turning 16.8 minutes into 5.7 points and 3.5 rebounds.

X-Factor: 3-point shooting and rebounding. I'm cheating a little here adding two, but they both are very clearly worth mentioning. FAU ranked 44th on the year, shooting 36.5 percent, a number that's fallen during the tournament, where its gone just 34-of-109 (31.2 percent), three times shooting less than 30 percent to get here. In these cavernous NFL stadiums, facing a San Diego State team that ranks second in 3-point defense at 27.8 percent, it's difficult to imagine the Owls finding tremendous success from the outside. Conversely, despite their lack of size, the Owls rebound very well, out-rebounding their tournament opponents 170-138. They'll need to continue that dominance, limiting the Aztecs to one shot while possibly gaining additional chances on the offensive glass for themselves.

Who They Beat to Get Here:

Memphis 66-65

Fairleigh Dickinson 78-70

Tennessee 62-55

Kansas State 79-76

They'll Win IF: They limit turnovers. That sounds as cliche as saying "they make shots," and it's not some hard-hitting analysis, but it still remains a fact. FAU got by Kansas State despite coughing it up 22 times after having just 28 in their first three combined. They were able to pull it out because of that game's high pace and more possessions. That isn't happening here, as San Diego State hasn't allowed more than 64 points in any of their last eight wins. The Owls will need each possession to be of utmost quality when trying to solve the Aztecs defense.

Prediction: We've got a narrow, two-point spread here, so it's yet another game where any result would not surprise. Florida Atlantic has the nation's longest active win streak, coming in here at 11. The Owls have done so in a variety of fashions, scoring 100+ points twice and less than 70 three times, twice in the tournament. They don't seem bothered by their opponents style, regardless of what that may be. As such, I'll back the Owls to again find a way against the Aztecs' suffocating defense and eek out a narrow victory.

--Chris Bennett