NCAA Tournament Preview: East Region

East Region
West Region
Midwest Region
South Region

While the other three regions seem to offer some pretty juicy matchups, both in the opening round and throughout based on projection, the East seems like a bit of an afterthought. Purdue is certainly deserving of a No.1 seed after winning both the Big 10 regular season and tournament title, but the Boilermakers are admittedly the fourth of the four ones. Marquette is also seeded as the fourth of the twos. No. 3 Kansas State lost two straight down the stretch, and No. 4 Tennessee is down a starting point guard, while dropping seven of its last 12.

Furthermore, the region is seemingly void of a double-digit darling despite the potential vulnerability of the top seeds.  Oral Roberts once looked to have the making of a Cinderella, but arguably couldn't have gotten a worse draw against a surging Duke team. Let's dive into the matchups and pick some upsets.

The Favorites

No. 1 Purdue - Likely consensus national player of the year Zach Edey is capable of carrying this team to four wins. The 7-foot-4, 305 pound center averaged 22.3 points, 12.8 rebounds and 2.1 blocks nightly, posting 26 double-doubles on the year. He will provide easy, run-stopping baskets for the Boilermakers nightly. Purdue does have young guards, however, which isn't usually a recipe for tournament success. 

No. 2 Marquette - The Golden Eagles stride into the tournament on a nine-game winning streak, continuing to make believers out of doubters. Underdogs in both of their last two games during the Big East Tournament, Shaka Smart's team emerged victorious. He's had tournament success previously at VCU, and this is a squad that expects to win. They lack depth, but their core rotation has ample scoring, rebounding and distribution abound. Only one of their five losses all year was by more than five points. They'll be a tough out, with the expectation of winning four games.

No. 3 Kansas State - There's no doubting the Wildcats' top two players in Keyontae Johnson (17.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and Markquis Nowell (16.8 ppg, 7.6 apg), but the latter is grossly undersized at 5-foot-8. The seeding here seems like a salute to the Big 12 rather than KSU's overall work, as the Wildcats limp in, having lost two straight and eight of their last 16. If they are as battle-tested as the committee thinks they are, there's value. If you're not selling what the Big 12 is offering, KSU should be a popular early-exit target.

No. 4 Tennessee - Including the second-to-last regular season game where Zakai Zeigler saw three minutes before injury, Tennessee finished just 1-3 without its floor general. The Vols' 49th-ranked offensive efficiency doesn't seem to pass the eye test. There's still enough talent here to win multiple games, but the Volunteers need Josiah-Jordan James to find consistency and someone to score regularly. That's been an Achilles heel all season, with many expecting it to continue.

Cinderella Watch

No. 9 Florida Atlantic - I think most pundits would argue Purdue as the most vulnerable of the No. 1 seeds, but I also think almost everyone is going to love Memphis in this first-round matchup. That's not incorrect, but the Owls and Tigers matchup looks extremely tight. There's no debating Memphis is peaking, and DeAndre Williams' physical presence certainly provides a challenge for FAU. But, I expect some overreaction to Memphis' C-USA Tournament win over Houston that came without Cougars' leading scorer Marcus Sasser. This opening-round matchup is absolutely a toss-up, as the two rank 32nd and 26th offensively, and 36th and 35th defensively (per KenPom). FAU lost its two games against Power 5 schools, but won all but one other game. Memphis isn't a power school. If the Owls can escape Round 1, they've got the style to frustrate Purdue in Round 2. An inability to combat Edey's size is likely their undoing, but it's certainly not a matchup I'd be wanting if I'm the Boilermakers. From a bracket standpoint, I'd anticipate heavy, heavy picks on Memphis, making one win for the Owls something that helps you differentiate from the pack.

No. 6 Kentucky - Can a blue blood like Big Blue truly be a Cinderella? Probably not, but as a six seed, the Wildcats look poised to do some damage. They should be able to defend their way to a Round 1 win over inconsistent Providence, likely setting a matchup with Kansas State, which doesn't appear to have the size, and more relevantly, length, to combat these Wildcats. Kentucky earned its way into the tournament by winning 11 of its final 16 and five of its final seven, with its two most recent losses coming to surging Vanderbilt.

Biggest Bust

No. 4 Tennessee - Based on seed, the Volunteers must reach the Sweet 16 in order to not bust. This is low-hanging fruit given their late-season woes and injury issues, but revert to the last sentence, and we have the definition of a bust. Tennessee is elite defensively, ranking second in KenPom's efficiency metric while grinding things to a 278th-ranked pace. That should keep the Vols in games for as long as they're alive. If we're betting, Tennessee likely offers value with seemingly everyone counting them out. Make no mistake, I expect the Vols to be competitive. But with a glaring inability to score consistently, it's really hard to make an argument they advance into the second weekend, making them an easy fade when filling out brackets.

First-Round Upset

No. 10 Southern Cal over No. 7 Michigan State - As the intro alluded to, this region just seems to lack pizazz. There aren't any clearly sexy 12-over-5 or 13-over-4 upset specials likely looming, though Oral Roberts could be a fun betting underdog. While unlikely to prevail, the Golden Eagles would be a bold, bracket-busting call. As such, I'll back the Trojans, opening as 1.5-point underdogs, as an "upset" based on seeding. Michigan State has more depth, but I expect USC to have Drew Peterson back at full health after a questionable Pac-12 Tournament showing due to back issues. Boogie Ellis has averaged 24.3 ppg across the Trojans' last seven, three times posting 28+ points. He's capable of taking over a game and seems likely to have additional help here. Michigan State is also turnover prone and doesn't create opponent mistakes, which will loom large in a tight game where additional possessions matter.

Player to Watch

Fletcher Loyer, G, Purdue - Loyer is the Boilermakers' second-leading scorer at 10.9 ppg, but the moment looked too big for him in Chicago during Purdue's conference tournament win. He scored just 11 total points in three games, shooting a combined 2-of-16 from the floor. It resulted in just 22.7 minutes against the 29.1 he saw during the duration of the season, with a good chunk of that time going to the more experience Brandon Newman. Much will be written about Purdue's backcourt question marks in the coming days, and it's justified. Loyer needs to get comfortable in a likely blowout Round 1 and potentially high-scoring Round 2 to provide his average production if Purdue is to have realistic Final Four expectations.

Sweet 16 Picks

No. 1 Purdue - Simply, the Boilermakers are the safest bet in Round 1 against a play-in winner. There will be a lively dog in either Memphis or FAU awaiting them next, but Zach Edey will be too much to handle for either, carrying his team into the tournament's second weekend as the backcourt gains valuable, high-leverage minutes.

No. 5 Duke - There's a reason the Blue Devils are popular right now -- they're absolutely hitting their stride. Forward Kyle Filipowski gives them an ace scorer, Dereck Lively an ace rebounder and rim protector, and the wings and backcourt offer a nice combination of size, shooting and slashing. The defense has also stepped up, surging all the way to 24th overall (per KenPom's efficiency metric). They'll survive a first-round scare and roll over their Round of 32 opponent, extending their win streak to 11 games.

No. 6 Kentucky - This four-pack of teams feels the most open, but with a first-game loss in the SEC Tournament, Kentucky will have ample time to get healthy prior to Friday's tip. Oscar Tshiebwe leads the way, but a healthy Cason Wallace is the difference and allows the Wildcats to live up to some of their preseason expectations, beating Providence and Kansas State into the tournament's second week.

No. 2 Marquette - We can make a case for a plethora of teams from the middle of this bracket, but I feel the top two seeds are chalky for a reason. Big East Player of the Year Tyler Kolek is playing at an elite level, scoring in double-digits in 13 straight, averaging 18.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 7.4 assists and 2.1 steals in that stretch. Marquette ranks eighth in KenPom's offensive efficiency, with Kameron Jones (15.0 ppg) providing more reliable scoring. 3-point defense can be their kryptonite (35.7 percent allowed, 257th nationally), but that shouldn't factor in the first two games.

Final Four Pick

No. 5 Duke - I loathe the success that Duke has had over the past month. Partly because I'm an admitted UNC fan, but mostly because I saw a run coming and was hoping the Blue Devils would be overlooked at this stage of the tournament. That's out of the window, but the process remains the same. They're fully healthy, and their freshmen, namely Tyrese Proctor and Dariq Whitehead, look like different players than they did even a month ago. They play tremendous defense, have size to match up with anyone in their path and can score at all three levels. The path looks pretty inviting as well. Purdue could be vulnerable to either second opponent, and the bottom of the bracket feels like a true toss-up. Escape high-flying Oral Roberts in Round 1, and the Blue Devils should fair very well with whomever is in their path.